BRITISH 2yo RACING Pre-Race Brocklesby Questions

No Previews in 2012 and ensuring the data in the Declarations Pages is valid is the main target. The 2012 Results Pages will include any post-race thoughts and items. But, to get the season started here are a few questions to ponder around the Brocklesby and the field assembled.

• General - Along with the 'regulars' there are three unusual trainers represented, 2 x Southern based plus Mick Easterby. Are they here for a particular reason? Or, has the mild winter and warm early spring meant that we shall see a range of trainers with earlier runners than usual, or of late? If, the weather is a positive factor then why the small field? When comparing trainer's records how typical a 'Conditions' race is this given it is all debut runners and not proven winners? But, keep the question about the weather and how forward trainers' strings are in mind for a couple of weeks, at least.
• Deepest Blue - Is Jamie Osborne back targetting 2yo racing strongly after his troubles, and moderate returns, in recent seasons? This included having to move stables after his landlord, and an important owner for the stable, went bankrupt. After an improved 2011 is he going all out to make an impression in 2012 as he tries to build his stable back up? How ready will his early runners be to compete strongly? He made his name with 2yos earlier in his career and got early debut wins up to 2007. But, much later starts for the stable since and competitive debuts rare at any time in the season barring high-class types and the odd accident in a soft race like 2011. How ready & competitive will the Sakhee's Secret early runners be?
• Heavy Metal - Back to early starts in 2011 after some later kick-offs and similar this year. But, will he need the usual time to get his runners competitive? The debut wins have been from May in recent years and going back it needed better class types in mid-April to produce them. Would be prominent run by Heavy Metal mean he is a really good one? Or the trainer further forward than usual? How will the FTO average estimate of 36 hold up considering this is an early starter?
• Just Past Andover - Has the trainer bought the best he has ready to the Brocklesby, as would be usual? His 2011 winner won a weak version on it's second run after a moderate debut. In the last two years the early debuts have looked less primed than previously. If this is a readier type will he try to lead throughout on the stands' rail? Where did he find the get-up-and-go to pay as much as £9,500 for a horse from?
• Mel Brittain - Will the better of his pair be ready enough to make the first 4? He usually gets 0 or 1 winner each year but his best season in 2008 began with a 3rd of 19 in the Brocklesby by the subsequent Hilary Needler victress. He has also had a 4th and a 6th in big fields but no runner since 2009. Lucky Lodge is in the first colours and has a believable, low quality, 5f pedigree. Weill he show up better here? Mayfield Girl is related to a number of useful horses who developed well with time. Is she the better of the pair in the long term?
• Marvelino - Will he need to be very, very, good to show up well on debut? Has Eddery got far enough past his personal problems to improve his moderate, and declining, record overall? Competitive debuts by runners for the stable are very rare and need high class horses on the evidence. Hearts of Fire's success in this race in 2009 seems a vastly misleading example. He proved up to winning Italian Group races at 2yo and running in real Group 1 races at 3yo. Would this one need to be similar to win?
• Maypole Joe - Will this runner prove typical of the debut runners for Evans in the Brocklesby? These tend to be OR50-72 types and to need the run and almost never place. His winners and prominent runners in recent years have all been on second outings. He usually debuts his best 2yos elsewhere. Does Gannon being here rather than at Kempton with the suspect filly debut runner mean anything?
• My Boy Bill - How did Mick end up with a well bred one that cost 65,000 guineas? Will he make a special effort to get a good debut run for an 'important' one like he did with the Sangster owned Risky Art in 2011? Will the Market be clueless about the quality and readiness as they usually are with his 2yos who regularly make the first 3 at long odds? See Risky Art's debut win at 33/1.
• Perfect Words - Is this a Type 1 (Mac Love & Archers Road) or Type 2 (Triggerlo, Saucy Buck & Sarandjam) Channon Brocklesby runner? The first are good quality and manage to place on the way to busy and productive seasons. The second finish midfield or worse and are also busy. But they will prove OR60s kit, or worse, and struggle to win. How does Perfect Words picture match up to that of Triggerlo from 2011?
• Well Acquainted - Clive Cox has been drifting earlier with his first runner in recent years but this is a wildly early start. Why? Will he front-load a set of competitive 2yos in 2012 as he usually does? Will they mostly make the frame FTO or will the really early starters need the debut to develop from?
• Lady Poppy - How much did the, very vague and meaningless, 'Overdose' link play in her sales price? Will she be very fit FTO as many of the trainer's 2yos are? Will she be as good as the rare Brocklesby runners the trainer has? Two representatives since 2005 have both been unplaced but gone on to be multiple winners rated OR80+ and OR90+.

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