April 14th: Newmarket
5f M (C&G) |
Sold for high but not startling price considering he was sold at a session
of the 'expensive' Tattersalls sales where the top price was 1.15 Million
guineas. Made less than the dam's previous foal who rated around 70 at
2yo.
By second season sire who made a good start with his 2yos in 2004. However,
they were not a precocious group and showed better form for 7f and the
second half of the season. He only had two uncompetitive runners over 5f
and the first win (6f) was not until June 23rd.
Dam was quite well related with her best siblings Group 3 winners. She
showed little form but has already produced a Group 3 2yo 6f winner (who
ran for M Channon who is notable for starting horses early) while her other
two foals have looked more 3yo types. The Group 3 winner was by a similar
type of sire to Giant's Causeway in Royal Academy.
Very good and reliable trainer has a clear strategy with 2yo racing. He
assesses 2yos at home and the early runners will usually be above average
winners. He won this race with a debut runner in 2003 who went on to be
a Group 3 winner. His only other runner in the maidens at this meeting
in 2002-4 was second at 4/1 and won well at York on her next outing.
The trainer does not target debut wins and only the useful+ types tend
to win FTO. As a general rule his better runners improve around 20lb from
debut. Therefore a horse capable of rating around 100 will rate around
80 on debut for example. This approach means that only the runners capable
of 85+ rating in the season are likely to win on debut.
Worth noting that this runner is owned by Shekh Mohammed's son and he had
nine 2yos with the trainer in 2004 which were all bought at the breeze-up
sales (unlike this one). Those were less expensive than this runner and
bought with 2yo racing in mind. Six of the nine were winners and two placed
and as a group they were slightly readier on debut than his 'usual'. [Probably
another sign that no matter how good a trainer you are you can always find
a little bit of extra time & effort for the Maktoum family.]
In summary he does not have a 5f pedigree but the dam has produced a superior
sprint 2yo to a similar sire. Has been chosen by a good trainer, who assesses
his 2yos before they run, to represent and important owner. Would expect
him to be around 20lb below his best rating on debut and worth assuming
he is at least useful. An SP less than 3/1 with support would be a strong
sign that the trainer knows he is better than useful. Profile
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