| DATE |
PROFILE/COMMENTS |
April 15th: Thirsk
Fillies' Novice |
May not have gone to the sales.
Sire has mixed 2yo record. 5f and early season winners are rare, probably
needs good dam help to get that type of runner. Had 5f winner in 2004 but
she was useful & developed over 6f+.
Dam was unraced and by a non 5f sire. She has produced one moderate runner.
Veteran trainer has an interesting record with 2yos. Backing all of his
debut runners in the last four seasons would have led to a large profit.
This is because he gets his 2yos fit and ready to compete on debut and
they usually run in suitable races. The stable does not appear to bet so
he regularly gets long priced winners and places with his better types.
The problem is spotting which are the better types among the many lesser
2yos unless you can be on-course. One clue is that the earliest debuts
tend to include more of the stronger debuts.
In summary a runner that looks easy to dismiss on a moderate pedigree that
looks to need 5f+. However, the trainer's record and his choice of this
race for her debut raise real issues about whether she might be able to
rate in the 60s here and place at a long SP. Profile [65]?
|
May 25th: Ripon
6f Maiden |
50/1 on debut in a reasonable race for the early stage of the year at Thirsk.
Soft ground and never in the race. Within 3L aft halfway but faded from
there as the better fillies pressed on. Estimate [30]
Given a week break and steps to 6f which looks correct on pedigree. Trainer
has had 2 moderate debuts since that both lost notable ground at the start.
Trainer's runners in previous year's tend to show limited improvement from
debut unless there was an obvious reason for underperforming. Profile
[50]
|
June 25th: Doncaster
6f Maiden Fillies' |
11/1 at Ripon in a weak race other than the winner. Showed the professionalism
and performance expected of her on debut. Also officially 'Soft' here.
Tracked the leader by 1L at halfway and chased him for the last 2f and
forced him to make some effort. Pulled 9L clear of the poor third. Estimate
[68]
Similar performance level here. Profile [68]
|