June 10th: Catterick
5f Novice |
28/1 at Ripon in a race on softening ground where the field split into
two groups. Race on the stands' side with where three of the first four
ran. More than 3L off the leader at halfway and faded from there and never
beyond midfield overall. Estimate [45]
Trainer has run 6 on debut so far and there has been a clear split with
three competing well (finishing 1st-3rd at 9/2 or less) and three poorly
(unplaced at 18/1 or longer). Two of the better debuts have been at Hamilton
and two of the poor ones at Ripon.
This is the first STO run by one of the poor debut runners. In 2004 none
of the runners that made poor or moderate debuts won or showed more than
8-10lb improvement overall. The ones that showed better form mostly needed
a change of distance, apprentice riding, more time, etc.
In summary the trainer appears to assess his 2yos before they run and those
with ability will show up well FTO. If they don't then they are probably
moderate. Did not show enough at Ripon and his overall profile doesn't
suggests fast 5f is gong to bring great improvement although. Likely to
be the best physical type in a field of mainly smaller, ready 2yos. [54
+ 4 = 58]
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