June 18th: Newmarket
7f Maiden |
Bred by 'Newberry Stud' and owned by Lady Clague.
First season sire made good impression at sales and yearlings sold well.
He won over 7f at 2yo but reverted to a top class sprinter at 3yo.
His early runners over 5f have competed just averagely well with places
but no wins. He has had two recent wins with debut runners over 6f and
one STO win.
This is his second runner in a 'better' 7f maiden from a dam capable of
producing sprinters.
Dam a sprint winner in Ireland has produced various types but notably a
high class sprinter and sire.
Second runner of the 2yo season for a major trainer after a 'sighter' in
a May 23rd race.
He has a very consistent strategy and record. Roughly 60 2yos run each
season and about 20 of them win at a 20% strike rate. Most will only run
once or twice and will be targeted at maiden wins. A few will run in Listed+
races.
Runners are usually fit and competent on debut and the better ones can
place and win. FTO SPs are not well correlated with performance nor overall
ability. However, a longer SP (16/1+) is a pretty sure sign of a moderate
runner.
This is a typical (re)start date after the sighter and the earliest debuts
are a mix of natural useful 2yos and limited owner breds. His early debuts
are often poor value. In 2003 the first four debuts started at odds-on
and one won. In total his first ten 2yo debuts in the period 2002-4 have
produced 4 wins from 30 runners at low SPs.
He runs two in this race with the other an owner bred for K Abdulla. With
the meeting clashing with York both are ridden by 'minor' jockeys.
In summary the 7f start does not appear a positive and the earlier start
date suggests an average type. Profile [62]
|