May 23rd: Leicester
6f Maiden |
Made a high price at the Keeneland September sales and a big increase on
the foal price.
Sire has had an increased number of 2yos runners in 2003-4 (possibly due
to the success of Fantastic Light). He gets winners at all distances. His
only previous runner in 2005 won a tough maiden FTO over 5f.
Dam was a useful+ winner in the US and well related.
First runner of the 2yo season for a major trainer.
He has a very consistent strategy and record. Roughly 60 2yos run each
season and about 20 of them win at a 20% strike rate. Most will only run
once or twice and will be targeted at maiden wins. A few will run in Listed+
races.
Runners are usually fit and competent on debut and the better ones can
place and win. FTO SPs are not well correlated with performance nor overall
ability. However, a longer SP (16/1+) is a pretty sure sign of a moderate
runner.
This is a typical start date and the earliest debuts are a mix of natural
useful 2yos and limited owner breds. His first runner in 2002 was a poor
owner bred in this race. His early debuts are often poor value. In 2003
the first four debuts started at odds-on and one won. In total his first
ten 2yo debuts in the period 2002-4 have produced 4 wins from 30 runners
at low SPs.
In summary the profile of a useful and possibly superior runner. Overall
the trainer's FTO record is poor but this might be one of the stronger
debuts. Profile [74]
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