Page Index :

1. INTRODUCTION
2. 2005 SEASON STATS
3. SOME THOUGHTS

A previous article on this site covering 'race standardisation' and general 2yo ratings included the following point :-

"The official handicapper's role can seem to be ensuring that no horse gets in on a low weighting in their relative handicap. The collateral damage of ludicrously over-rated horses presumably is not their problem as such...."

The British Horseracing Board's (BHB) handicapper for 2yo races has the task of generating the relative (2yos in relation to each other) handicap anew each season. The first Nursery races (2yo handicaps) start in early July after there has been a body of racing for the handicapper to work on. In 2005 the first nursery was the 297th 2yo race of year (out of 1004).

All nurseries require the entrants to have run at least three times to ensure the handicapper has a reasonable opportunity to assess them. In earlier season runners are also required to have made a place in the first four in those three runs. At any time in the season winning a race, no matter how poor and uncompetitive shortcuts the requirement to have run 3 times. Winners have to be allowed into handicap races or they would have hardly any opportunities to run in a race.

When the handicapper is looking to place the 2yos on a handicap mark what is he trying to achieve? The ideal answer is that he is looking to give them their correct rating in line with the actual performance they have produced. They can fail in this ideal for a variety of reasons but mainly seem to because of:-

• not rating race performances for their actual value but for an expected level (race standardisation, etc.)
• being human, they react to factors outside the performance, and are particularly impressed by fancy pedigrees, big sales prices, monied owners, etc., etc.
• a general bias towards over-rating horses, and therefore ensuring no-one 'gets away' with anything

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In 2005 there were a total of 402 horses that made more than one run in Nursery races and therefore had a handicap race 'career' for their Official Rating to show some variations. The following table summarises how the Official Rating of those 2yos varied between their first and last handicap runs.
 

Table 1: 2yos with more than 1 Nursery race run split by their change in Official Ratings

	2yos with Decreased Ratings	No Change in Rating	2yos with Increased Ratings
Number of 2yos	227	58	117
Percentage of total (402 2yos)	56.5%	14.4%	29.1%
Total change in ratings	-1198 points	Not Applicable	+569 points
Average Change per 2yo	5.28 points per 2yo	Not Applicable	4.86 points per 2yo

The results show a solid bias towards the majority of horses being over-rated and these 2yos need to have their original Official Rating to be dropped to be competitive . The bias is almost certainly more pronounced than the table suggests. With a little thought a number of factors suggest themselves which pushes the balance further to the 'decreasing side. For example :-

• The 2yos with increased ratings have all done something positive to earn their increase and the raises tend to be in 5 point, or greater chunks. They have been competitive at their starting level. The horses with decreased ratings tend to have had more runs in Nurseries and are going down in 1-2 point steps (it is no secret it is easier to go up the handicap than down). The majority of the horses with decreasing ratings are still not competitive (finishing unplaced) and need to drop further.
• Of the 58 that had no change in rating there were 41 with just two and 11 with three runs in nurseries. Assessing these show that 44 of the 58 had shown unplaced form and would be expected to be dropped in the ratings with 14 showing winning or placed form likely to lead to an increase. Taking these into account were get an overall decreased to increased ratio of around 2:1 (i.e., 67% to 33%).

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In general the Official Handicapper does a moderate job in assessing the ability of the majority of 2yos. The model and methods adopted lead to a majority of 2yos being over-rated when the first enter the handicap. This is a conscious decision by the handicapper and with a different approach a different outcome could be produced. In the end it is counter productive because a percentage of horses still enter the handicap under-rated and there are 'opportunities' for trainers to get their horse into this group.

In light of this here are a few recommendations to try to get your horse into the smallish 'under-rated' group :-

• Don't run in early season races where placed runs in weak(ish) races will get rated too highly.
• Don't run in maidens at the better courses - Newmarket, Newbury, Ascot, Goodwood, etc.
• Don't run in Conditions and Listed/Group races which are usually over-rated more than any other races.
• Do run in Northern maidens - Redcar, Catterick, Carlisle, Musselburgh, etc.
• Do run on the All-Weather (AW) but it is safer to avoid Lingfield. Running at Southwell & Wolverhampton should be encouraged.
• One to be wary off but depending upon the type and ability of the horse but Do run it a Seller or Claimer if possible. Snobbery is to the fore in this game and a strong time performance in a competitive seller will always be rated well behind a poor performance in a Maiden at a better course.
• Do run your horse suited to 8 furlongs in 6f races which they are not fully competitive in. There ought to be enough variability in these fields to produce a 'quiet midfield' to finish in. Avoid running this types of horses in 5f races on firmer going because it will probably be a little too obvious they are in the wrong race.
• Don't have your horses racing prominently in races. If the race has a slow pace it might end up placed or finish close up. It also may mean that the other quiet runners never catch up with yours.

• A small number of trainers regularly have more than one representative in the 'Increasing Rating' group. In no particular order the following are amongst the regulars - M Prescott, M Channon, R Hannon, N Callaghan & J Osborne. What are the reasons for this?
• Each season the 'Back the topweights in a Nursery' will be aired as a method for assessing 2yo handicaps. How much value is there in this approach? What part does the over-rating of the 2yo population in general play?