May 6th: Nottingham
5f Maiden Fillies' |
Owner bred and probably did not go to the sales.
Second season sire made ok start in 2004 with 13 winners but short on quality.
Ok for 5f but runners tended to be better from mid-season onwards.
Has had one 5f winner this week in the slowest 5f time of the season.
Dam was an expensive purchase at the Tattersalls Houghton sales although
by an indifferent sire. She showed what appeared to be useful form over
7f on her only 2yo run in the Houghton Sales race. However, she did not
show that level of form in a few 3yo runs.
Good, reliable trainer targets a maiden win with 2yos in the first three
runs. The better types will then run in conditions+ races and a few in
nurseries.
He does not target strong debut runs and the FTO wins tend to come along
with the best 2yos. Consider in 2003 that 7 of his first 10 2yos runners
won on debut. This wasn't a 'plan' as such but a year when he had a lot
of good 2yos. Six of those 7 have rated over 90 in their careers.
The debut wins tend to come in the period May to June and are often in
the North or Midlands. This is related to the fact that his earliest debuts
each season are a mix of his best and most precocious 2yos, sprinkled with
a few duff ones (often owner breds). The best ones win on debut in this
period including those destined for Royal Ascot (Sarayat at Leicester in
2003, Sabbeeh at Ripon in 2002, etc).
In summary a difficult pedigree to read with hints of better things from
unlikely sources but wouldn't be expected to deliver quality. A lot depends
on which type of early debut this is for a trainer - useful type sent North
to iron out the locals? Or duff owner bred having a quiet run to prove
she's moderate (Like Heartbeat at Redcar in 2003). A better type would
be likely to be supported in the market, but that money would come in late
on. Profile [42]
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