BRITISH 2yo RACING 2005 - Horse Summary
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Lava Flow (CH, C.), [Picture]
TRAINER
SIRE
DAM
GRANDSIRE
SALES PRICE
M. L. W. Bell Danehill Dancer Tumble (Pedigree) Mtoto 70000 gns [TO1]

Racing Summary
DATE PROFILE/COMMENTS
April 18th: Windsor
5f Maiden
  • Made highish price at Tattersalls part 1 sales.
  • Reviewed at the sales and medium size and build. He was neat but lack some athleticism behind and also some quality (given the 70k price tag). He was seen as being a solid 70s maiden winner without looking obviously useful.
  • By a good sire with a notably good 2yo winner to runner record. Sire get winners at range of distances but solid record at 5-6f and can also get early runners. Sire can get FTO winners. 
  • Sire has had two 5f winner so far in 2005.
  • Dam has quite stout pedigree and was related to winners ranging from Group 1 placers down to very minor. 
  • Very good and reliable trainer has a clear strategy with 2yo racing. He assesses 2yos at home and the early runners will usually be above average winners. 
  • The trainer does not target debut wins and only the useful+ types tend to win FTO. As a general rule his better runners improve around 20lb from debut. Therefore a horse capable of rating around 100 will rate around 80 on debut for example. This approach means that only the runners capable of 85+ rating in the season are likely to win on debut. 
  • He has made a slow start to 2005 and his only runner so far in a maiden at Newmarket last week. That run was an unusually inexperienced debut for the trainer as favourite. This runner was also entered in that race and is also owned by Sheikh Mohammed's son. So we could assume the other runner (Cover Drive) was seen as being a better prospect to show up well.
  • In summary a mixed pedigree and the sire will need to add the 5f zip but has shown he can do that. Trainer has made a slow start and only targets debut wins with his best runners and would probably be happy with a solid debut in the first five or six.  Profile [63]
  • April 18th: Windsor
    Post Race
  • Not obviously 70k gns worth. Good size but lacks build, especially in front. Needs to develop and tighten up. However, the biggest problem was his behaviour. He is slightly mentally immature and was nervous and wound-up here. He ended up looking 'gone inside' himself (always a bad sign) and sweating on his neck (which he held 'crested' a lot of the time). Until his behaviour settles down he isn't going to realise his potential.
  • Was notably wound-up and poorly behaved before the race and did not look as if he could perform to expectations. Started off in the far side group but crossed to stands' side at halfway. Never got into the race and performed below expectations but his behaviour could explain that.  Estimate [52]
  • May 1st: Hamilton
    5f Maiden
  • Has looked limited to being an average maiden winner despite his sales price and needs to improve his behaviour and develop a little for that.
  • A bad sign overall that his good trainer has chosen the "take him to Hamilton" route which would confirm the view that he has his limitations. The trainer is very competent and knows what tactic he has to take to get the best chance of a win.  Profile [68]
  • 2005 SEASON RUN DETAILS
    Horse Run # Date Course Dist Gng RcCls RcTyp SP Postn [Est] Run Style Hdgr Notes
    LAVA FLOW118/04/2005WDSR5G5M128-16522BMCentFar, SwcStdsHf, NIR
    LAVA FLOW201/05/2005HTON5GSG5M2.756-951T2T1Hf, SQFd-1+
    ~END~
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    Lava Flow:-  Pedigree Details
    DAM Name Previous Foals and their Racing Performances Foal Years General Notes
    Tumble 5 previous foals.
    Half to :-
    • 7f 2yo Night Fall (Ir46k, rtd 77)
    • 4-5yo wnr Tripple Sec (De)
    • plcd 6f 2yo/3yo wnr Perfect Balance (21k, rtd 51/54)
    • +plcd 10f AW 2yo Masonry (Ir£120k, rtd 73 Nov-Dec)
    • +unr 2yo Mill End (75k, SRev 67x2.4)
    dam 3-5yo wnr (Fr)
    DAM 91 =
    • 98 NF
    • 99 TS
    • 00 M
    • 01 PB
    • 02 ME
     

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