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April 10th SUMMING UP
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A typical early season race and a good match between two with previous
runs and some solid newcomers. The current score this season in races between
STO runners and newcomers is 6 to 5. The general impression is that the
races we have seen run so far have been moderate form and that good and/or
ready debut runners have a good opportunity to compete against those with
previous outings.
Pernomente & Everyman have both run twice and ran in
the same Lingfield AW maiden last time. Pernomente has shown a likeable
attitude on both occasions and a professional manner. He did best of those
that got involved in a strong pace last time although finished tired and
got caught by a runner who was ten lengths off the leaders at halfway.
He does not set a strong standard but looks a straightforward ride and
should reach his normal standard.
Everyman was favourite for that Lingfield race despite losing ground at
the start in the Brocklesby and looking short of pace in the finish in
a slow race on soft ground. He lost even more ground from the stalls at
Lingfield and was 12 lengths behind at halfway. He appeared to finish strongly
in the straight to 5th but remember that the front runners had gone too
quickly and were walking home. Even assuming he gets an even break he would
probably need a similar set-up - pacemakers stalling - to get into the
race. The stiffer track will help him but on the likely prevailing ground
you would expect 'something' to be a better 5f runner.
There are two, perhaps three, newcomers with good prospects to be better
than Pernomente and Everyman and the best of them have sound prospects
on profile of being able to reel in Pernomente. Tom Tower's trainer
has been responsible for two disappointing STO runners (beaten by newcomers)
and one STO winner so far and it is proving difficult to assess his runners
abilities. If this were two seasons ago the fact that this one was owned
by Sheikh Mohammed would be enough to expect that the trainer would have
got it ready to win FTO. He's probably settled down a little now and not
so anxious to make a good impression. However, Tom Tower ought to be able
to place, at least, and if he can keep close enough he has prospects to
keep on to challenge Pernomente.
Eager Lover has been entered by the trainer in earlier races and
makes his debut as his trainer's second runner. The first - Dimboola -
made a good debut and would have gone close to winning in a similar race
to this one if he had not lost ground at the start and got a little tired
in the last furlong. That is the problem, he is almost certainly a better
horse than Pernomente but will he be ready enough to beat him now? In 2005
the Coventry winner Red Clubs couldn't win on his April debut for the trainer
and finished just in front of the awful Twilight Avenger (has he managed
to win anything yet?).
If looking to bet in the race I would be assessing the value of the newcomers
because the previous runners look limited. A wild card in that group would
be Alternative whose trainer is 2 from 4 with debuts by the end of April
in the last four seasons.
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TRAINERS:
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BW Hills has his second runner of the season with Eager Lover who
was entered for races back in March. As noted when his first runner - Dimboola
- made his debut last week his earliest season runners are almost always
competitive 2yos and capable of a maiden win at least. They usually win
STO and the better ones can win FTO. However, he does not tune his 2yos
for debut and they can show inexperience and lack some fitness (which is
why only the best (or most naturally mentally mature) tend to win FTO because
they are so good they can overcome this).
Dimboola appeared to make a very good debut at Leicester but lost ground
at the start and got tired in the last half furlong and finished second.
It will be interesting to see how ready Eager Lover is given his earlier
entries.
M Channon has an early season runner for Sheikh Mohammed. He started
training for this owner in 2002 and made a special effort to ensure the
early 2yo debuts were readier than his average. He had a good FTO record
for the Sheikh from 2002-4. His representative here - Tom Tower - is by
the sire Cape Cross who the trainer likes and often tries his offspring
over 5f. He's never had a debut winner with a number of high class runners
for the sire (including Mokabra (3rd FTO) and Cedarberg (2nd).
JL Spearing has a remarkable record with 2yos having produced a
single 3-time winner in each of the last 5 seasons (along with one other
win in 2003). The three time winners have always been one of his first
two runners in each season and tend to follow a set pattern in their development.
He has two runners on the card today with Stunningjo running in this maiden
and No worries Yet in the following seller. Stunningjo received an acceptable
report from the sales and was an expensive buy for the stable. It will
be interesting to see how she fares on debut to assess her future development.
RM Beckett has his first runner of the season. He has changed his
approach with 2yos on debut at least twice in his relatively short career
but those with ability usually show up strongly on debut. His runner here
- Alternative - does not have a classic 5f 2yo pedigree but has enough
hints of sprint capabilities and a solid sales report to make his early
debut of interest.
His runners by the end of April in the period 2002-5 have included two
FTO winners from four runners.
B Palling has his first runner of the season with Tagula Music.
He is notable for having his debut runners fit and mentally ready to run
close to their best. His only winner in 2005 won one her first outing.
His runner here is cheaply bought but by a good 2yo sire in Tagula. He
gets occasional longer priced places on debut in early season because of
his runners relative preparedness.
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SIRES:
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First season sire Act One
has a runner with Everyman and his only representative to date. He does
not have a pedigree no record that would suggest he would get precocious
5f 2yos. If told he did have one (as he does) you would estimate that it
was with one of a small group of trainers and would guess, in order, M
Channon, R Hannon & the PD Evans (his real trainer).
American sires Carson City
(Carson's Spirit) and More
Than Ready (Eager Lover) have runners.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Alternative rated 68 (136) at the sales.
Private Peachey rated 66 (139). Small, heavily built, strong and
compact.
Stunningjo rated 68 (122). Small, average build but good geometry
in front. Noted as one to follow to see how she developed with racing because
of 'has something' note (i.e. even with a system the eye may see something
that the system cannot yet put into words and/or fully quantify).
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