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April 30th SUMMING UP
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Regular readers of the site will be aware of a particular statistic which
gets examined through the jeweller's eyepiece on frequent occasions. The
sire Mark Of Esteem has a
below average record with 2yos overall notwithstanding Sir Percy's successes
in 2005 which lifted his record for that season to just above average.
In six seasons he has only ever had a single 2yo winner over 5f,
which was, althogether ... Redback,
who took three goes, etc.
Now Redback ran for trainer R. Hannon who has tried with a number of juveniles
to double the sire's record at 5f but hasn't managed it. Which brings us
nicely to the question of what to expect from Benchmark in this
race? He represents the sire and the trainer under consideration. On his
debut in a solid looking maiden at Windsor he received support in a period
when the trainer seemed to be introducing a batch of his better sprint
2yos and a number placed FTO. If you believe that Mark Of Esteem does not
sire 5f 2yos then his performance in the race would have had you nodding
approval. Having broken ok he got outpaced before halfway as Elhamri lifted
the pace to just above average levels. He kept on well enough later in
the race to get third but did not look an obvious pace type.
He runs again quickly and on a turning course where a nippier type could
have him in trouble on the bends and leave him too much to do in the straight.
Given that he is likely to be a short price it seems reasonable to look
for that nippier alternative. With some obvious low raters on debut in
opposition the list of possibles is Mubaashir and, depending on
his physical type, Loves Bidding.
Mubaashir's trainer has a mixed record with 2yos but there were signs in
2005 that he had them readier to compete FTO. His first four runners (to
late May) included three than finished second with two rating in the 60s.
His first runner in 2006 was a solid third in a good maiden at Newmarket.
He has a solid enough sprint pedigree and the early debut for the trainer
suggests he has some ability. His sales review rating was unexceptional
given the price he made but he clearly has prospects to be value at longer
odds against Benchmark.
The other, vague, alternative is Loves Bidding although not unless you
have access to paddock info before he runs. He has a 6f+ pedigree and did
not go to the sales so we don't have that information. The one possible
positive is that his trainer has only had two juvenile winners in recent
seasons and both won on debut. If he's actually a duff one then the opposition
to Benchmark's 5f success looks to be solely down to Mubaashir.
Of the others Bentley received a solid sales rating in the context
of this race and has a serviceable 5f pedigree. However, his trainer's
record with 2yos is poor and he is another who has run poorly on two runs
to date. His other runner in the race is Esteemed Prince and is by Mark
Of Esteem so if he wins on debut, for this trainer, over 5f we should probably
all take up basket-weaving instead. [As an aside after a string of poor
2yo debuts by the trainer's runners over several seasons Feelin Foxy ran
very well at Haydock two days ago FTO - it will be interesting to see whether
she can show the normal improvement for this trainer].
Beat The Bully runs for a trainer who doesn't target strong debut
runs and looked a poor to moderate type at the sales. Peggys Flower
is the second foal of a 3yo seller winner and by a sire who made a
moderate start in 2005. Unless the market says differently she is likely
to be here to get experience before the trainer switches her to a suitable
race for a STO win attempt (at Brighton, or in a seller, or both).
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