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May 2nd SUMMING UP
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A Class 4 maiden and so a step above the normal Class 5 level in terms
of value. However, unlike many races, this event has the recent pedigree
to match up with the status the prize money fund brings it.
In 2002 Royal Ascot winner Revenue finished second on his second run with
useful 7f 2yo+ Naahy in third (both beaten by the giant Sanbenito).
In 2003 Royal Ascot Group 3 winner Russian Valour won on his second run
beating the useful Danesmead. 2004 lacked the useful+ type but still had
three 70+ rated maiden winners in the first three places. Last season's
race saw a gamble on Strike Up The Band who won by a clear margin and went
on to prove to be a top 5f 2yo, winning at Group 3 level. Including Naahy's
Group 3 win as a 3yo that's three Group winners and a Royal Ascot Listed
race winner in the 12 horses to have made the first three 2002-5, a very
good record.
Which brings us to this year's field and on profile another good edition
of the race. There should be 4-5 average maiden winners out of this group
and there are two or three which have possibilities to be better than that.
Those that have run have not looked likely to be useful types. Jack
Rackham made a pleasing enough debut in an ordinary maiden to suggest
that with improvement he should be an average winner. His dam has already
produced two above average 2yo winners and his early start should help
him reach full potential. However, he is unlikely to set a standard here
that a better class 2yo could not reach. Josr's Magic received notable
support (12/1 to 6/1) FTO at Ripon for a trainer who has her juveniles
ready to compete well on debut. He looked a solid physical type, powerful
behind and carried himself well. He showed inexperience in the race and
had to be driven along behind a reasonable pace. He appeared to keep on
quite well late but he was moving through faders and he wasn't making ground
on the first two. You can take your pick but he appeared to lack pace in
that race and while the stiffer track here should be better for him he
may be better over further.
Probably of more interest in trying to spot whether there is a useful 2yo
here, perhaps one to go to Royal Ascot, are the best of the newcomers.
Seriously Lucky represents the trainer that brought Strike Up The
Band to the race last year. The vibes were very strong that he was expected
to win so the market should be a solid indicator of his ability. On profile
he has sound prospects of being average or better, with a pedigree that
includes useful runners and by a sire that can get odd precocious 2yos.
Mark Johnston won the race in 2003 with Russian Valour and last year (in
a season where he lacked a useful early 2yo) he ran the maiden winner Royal
Engineer (who was supported against Strike Up The Band but got ironed out
by him). Steady As A Rock is our second chance, after the small
and moderate La Roca, to see what sort of a sire Rock Of Gibraltar might
be. His trainer has his runners more forward on debut now than a few years
ago but he would still have to be well above average to win here and would
be more likely to fade in the last furlong and find something too good.
Trainer H. Morrison does not target 2yo racing and Johannesburg Jack's
debut here is a notably early run for one of his juveniles. The earliest
runners each season tend to include (roughly) 2 winners to 1 non-winner.
Since this one is running so early and is by the crack 2yo Johannesburg
(our first chance to see one of his runners) you would like to think he's
running because he's a natural rather than a no-good. However, his trainer
has rare FTO winners and not before June - the recent debut successes have
been later Group winer Ruby Rocket and his best filly in 2004 with Notjustaprettyface.
So Johannesburg Jack would have to be very good to win FTO, and this early,
for the trainer.
In a race with a number of sub-plots there are other points to watch for.
Trainer D Barron has a very variable record with 2yos from season to season
but when he has a good group he tends to get them ready to compete strongly
FTO. He has already had two debut winner from four runners but Skye
But N Ben (how clumsy a name is that?) looks unlikely to be another
in this group. Tom Tower runs for Sheikh Mohammed and M Channon
usually tries hard to get a win in the first two runs with 2yos for that
owner. He chased a good pace on debut but fell apart very early and was
eased. If M Channon thought this was going to be an easy Northern maiden
to win he was wrong but Tom Tower looks limited on what we have seen.
TD Easterby won the race with a STO runner in 2004 and ran later winners
to make the first four in 2003 & 2005. Top Bid looked more likely
to be the equivalent of 2005's rep - Grandad Bill - who needed a slow 7f
in mid-season to win than the useful Danesmead who made Russian Valour
break sweat in 2003.
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