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May 13th SUMMING UP
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A lower level quality Auction race over the unusual 5.5 furlong distance
(in the week when the 6f races started for the juveniles). Although the
likely quality on the day is moderate the field contains a solid number
on profile that will be competitive to win at their level on later runs.
With a set of runners around the 49-56 range the quality today is low and
the compact ratings in that area mean that issues susch as draw and previous
experience will play a bigger part in the fianl order. The key to finding
a bet on the day is to look for a runner that can run to 60+.
The two obvious possibilities are Pernomente & Gremlin
but both have wide draws in 16 & 14. In a tight-knit handicap on firmer
going this would be a real negative but in this mixed ability field is
not insurmountable. Pernomente had three early runs and returns after a
month's break. The first two runs on the AW were form that looked good
enough to win a race of this type. However, when running on turf for the
first time on the uphill Bath track he faded notably after front-running
and being challenged for the lead. He steps up to 5.5f on an easier track
but has to overcome the widest draw to get to a prominent position. He
still sets a good dstandard in the context of the race although is unlikely
to show improved form.
Gremlin's trainer has increasingly targeted 2yo racing, partly because
he does not like 'summer jumping' and also because he has made a success
of it. He tends to get his 2yos fit and competent on debut and if they
have ability they often place FTO at longer SPs. Given his growing reputation
with 2yos he is unlikely to start at 25/1+ here but he ought to place unless
the draw proves too much of a handicap.
Of the other newcomers Brierley Lil, Apollo Five, Sans Reward
& Copper King all have profiles to be winners after debut. Any
of them would need to be above average to win FTO off a normal trainer
preparation. Brierley Lil is interesting for a number of reasons. She received
a 70 rating at the sales with a note that while lacking development potential
she ought to compete well early on becasue of her size. Her trainer normally
targets midfield+ debuts and seems determined to win sellers with his 2yos
no matter how good they are - Exhibit A would be No
Worries Yet this year. He trained a previous foal of the dam - EC Lady
- who proved useful and finished 3rd in a similar race at the course in
2001. In general the trainer seems to have 2yos from more expensive
backgrounds than is usual.
Copper King & Sans Reward would have to be above average to win FTO
and appear more likely to finished 3rd-7th depending upon their ability.
A similar remark would fit Apollo Five whose trainer normally finds a 2yo
winner from a small number of runners each year and it is usually the first
one to run. A solid showing here would be followed by a 3TO win to fit
the usual profile.
Of the others that have run the well drawn Mystery World ran better
than the finishing position last time and looks a Mark Johnston 2yo that
can improve with racing despite its 5f limitations (similar to Baileys
Hilight who ran a solid 3TO race at Chester this week). Emergency Services
has had a long break from debut when he gave trouble at most points from
pre-parade to being in the stalls. He ran wide on the course and never
got into the race. He's probably a limited sprinter but this is a limited
race so if he can behave himself a forward showing would not be a big surprise.
Party Palace runs only 5 days after a poor debut at Windsor and
in Paddock Review looked a moderate type. Her trainer's other two 2yos
have improved notably on STO runs this year but she seems unlikely to make
it 3 from 3.
Wendy's Boy looks a limited type on profile and unlikely to figure
off a normal trainer preparation. A better than later midfield showing
by any of the others would be a sign of more ability than their profiles
promise.
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