|
May 16th SUMMING UP
|
A long tail of moderate types from whom a good perfromance on debut would
be a surprise. The places ought to concern the best of those with previous
solid runs plus possibly Baby Strange from the newcomers. Lipocco
& Grand Prix made placed debuts in similar maidens at the
course with Lipocco finishing close up in a faster time on GF- staying
on late after getting a little outpaced. His trainer has a solid improvement
record for STO runners and he should set a strong standard.
Grand Prix was unusual in setting the (average) pace on debut given his
trainer's record. He faded late on and finished third and it is possible
to read his form in two different ways. On the plus side he wasn't far
behind Alternative who runs earlier at York in a Novice event and Mood
Music who has won well at Hamilton since. On the neagtive side he was just
ahead of Tencendur who has been beaten twice since and Chip Leader who
we already knew was moderate and has proved it again. Lipocco appeals as
likely to be better value.
Rouen was runner-up in the Brocklesby and that ought to qualify
him to win most early season maidens. He has assisted in proving what a
poor Brocklesby it was in getting beaten twice since. He drops back to
5f afater seeing out 6f at Ripon. It would require both of the fron two
on profile not to show the expected improvement for him to win.
Baby Strange represents a trainer who has had his early debuts competent
in the last two seasons and a similar standard would see him in the 4th-5th
range and if he has a little more quality might make a place. A word also
for his sire - Superior Premium
- who made a reasonable start with his small first crop in 2005 given his
opportunities. Both his runners in 2006 have won, one on debut and one
STO after a placed first run. The rest look moderate unless there is a
solid type hidden amongst the owner breds and Avery appeals more
than Auction Boy as a vague possibility.
Of the others it is worth mentioning Merlins Quest who is a better
physical type than he showed formwise FTO. It would be good to see a solid
effort from him this time but his trainer's poor record with 2yos (with
a recognisable pattern) has degenerated into the plain baffling in the
last two years, so who knows? Vadinka's trainer is notable for having
his 2yos very fit and ready FTO and they often show up well. This is his
first runner and a later start than in 2005 when he began with a duff one
and then ran his four best 2yos in a two week period from April 26th with
all making the first four FTO. On profile Vadinka looks more like the duff
one and will be interesting to check his next few newcomers.
|