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May 26th SUMMING UP
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The first race at the revamped Ascot so we will all be learning about the
new track & facilities. From the B2yoR standpoint the most important
part is to find out how good the horse viewing will be in pre-parade and
parade rings. The old Ascot had an excellent pre-parade ring and an enormous
parade ring which was not much use.
Although the course is new we can trust the trainers who use set tactics
to keep applying them, this is still 'Ascot' after all. This promises to
be a very informative race with solid future significance. Much more so
than the two 5f Listed races we have already seen which have been run on
softer going and produced limited quality race between early to mid-season
juveniles (unless Sonny Red can develop over 6f+). Three of the runners
were rated relatively highly at the sales (Kings Bastion, The Old Fella
& Ceris Star all at 75) and two others have already shown good form.
Baby Strange was backed notably during the day and on the course
on his debut at Bath despite the fact he was taking on two runners with
solid previous runs. He travelled well near the pace and ran away from
those two making them look the average types they are and it took the jockey
some time to pull him up. He comes out top on profile because only minor
improvement from his debut rating would put him into the mid 80s.
With Chjimes likely to be favourite on the strength of his second
in an Irish Listed race Baby Strange represents fair value against him.
The one niggle is his trainer's record when stepping his 2yos that have
performed strongly on debut up in class. There is more than a hint that
they are primed for the FTO run (and the substantial backing would suggest
he was 'ready' at Bath) and can fail to develop well or even regress.
In his first year in 2003 Red Power won the Brocklesby and then struggled
to win a 3 runner Novice before going barmy (he injured Johnny Murtagh
at Royal Ascot if you recall). In 2004 Oh Dara ran to her best rating on
her debut win and last year both Overstayed & Come Out Fighting did
not really progress and performed less well when going above Novice or
Nursery level.
Chjimes won a mess of a race by default FTO when the strong pace fell apart
and he then stayed on strongly in a duel with Drayton in Ireland. It is
difficult to match that form up with the British standard at present but
it would not be a surprise to see stronger opposition than Drayton mixed
in this field.
Of the others with previous runs only Kings Bastion appeals as likely
to have the scope to improve to compete for the places here. It will be
interesting to see how The Old Fella performs on debut and whether
there will be any support from the stable. The trainer is going through
a phase of debuting his better 2yos but he has a mixed record with his
FTO runners here. In 2002 & 2004 they were moderate to average types
and in 2003 two of the three were Group class and the other above average.
The Old Fella was notably expensive at 75,000gns especially given that
his dam cost 8,000 and her best previous foal cost 6,000 and won a seller
at 2yo.
Ceris Star was the most expensive purchase for his trainer in 2005
and good physical type. After a remarkable start to 2005 with lots of early
wins he seems to have gone for a less 'tuned' approach with his juveniles
on debut this year. He also probably has a less able group overall. It
is unlikely that Ceris Star will be good enough to place on debut in this
group but a strong showing in the 4th-6th range would be promising for
his STO prospects.
A couple of point to note about the others - Dumas was entered for
the first race of the season in March and his trainer, unusually, had two
early AW runners. Both were supported in the market, lost ground at the
start and finished 4th-5th range. Unless he was injured earlier he is likely
to compete better than an average trainer debut but midfield is probably
the best he can hope for. Venir Rouge was 100/1 and ran in the strong
Newbury maiden won by R. Hannon's Major Cadeaux last week. He was 'noted'
making late ground in that race in some quarters but still showed moderate
form. To put it into context he was the biggest frame in the whole
of that field but he lacks muscle and is a rangy, narrow type. He isn't
suited to 6f although his size and relative maturity means that he might
compete in moderate 7f yo 8f races later.
In summary, not sure what to make of Chjimes and don't fancy backing him
as favourite. Perhaps he'll stand out in paddock review and change that
perception..... Baby Strange looked good on debut but his trainer's record
suggest he might not progress STO and off a 10 day break. He'll need to
be longer than the forecast 9/4 (RP) to look 'tempting'. Which means with
Kings Bastion & The Old Fella already possessing above average physical
reviews might be good value at longer odds. So, an interesting paddock
review, let's hope they haven't put us 40 yards away behind 4 sets of white
rails.
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