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June 7th SUMMING UP
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The summary was going to begin with a bit of pointless moaning about how
difficult this season has been so far, brought on by watching trainer EJ
O'Neill's filly Princess Iris win at 22/1 in a 5f maiden. Surely the cold
spring and then soft ground has produced more 'shocks' than normal, what
with trainer's being behind schedule and horses not acting on easy ground.
But, having checked the number of double figure SPs of winners in 2006
we are a little behind the number than in 2005 to the same point. The number
of 20/1+ winners is running at just under 10% as usual - think about that,
close to 1 in 10 races for juveniles has had a winner at 20/1 or more so
far - but most of them were the best physical type in the race like Princess
Iris.
So that start won't work so let's have a bit of 'after timing' instead.
Now, I know how you feel, after timing is just going to wind everyone up.
However, let's stick with it to get some positive conclusions we can perhaps
use. In preparing some notes for this race the newcomer No Surprises
(very droll, Eoghan..) prompted the thought of when did he have his
burst of debut winners in 2005? On checking he had three FTO winners and
one second place from 5 runners in the period June 15th to 21st and they
were amongst his best 2yos. Four of the five won more than one race and
Silent Times won at Group 2 level.
The debut wins were at 16/1 (twice) & 4/1 along with a 9/1 second.
From this we can assume the stable doesn't back it's better runners on
debut and they tend to win because of how good they are rather than being
wound up (they do show solid improvement STO). So, in writing about No
Surprises this point was going to be made and to at least be wary to see
whether she could be good enough to win this weakish race FTO. Then Princess
Iris wins at 22/1, having drifted in the market and makes it look like
after timing.
The points to take out of this are that Mr O'Neill has shown in the last
18 months that he is a very organised trainer who implements a clear approach
with his 2yos. His record in 2006 is very similar to 2005 so far with a
batch of precocious runners early including some useful ones which competed
well FTO. He has then had a lull and we can presume that in the next two
weeks or so we are going to see the best of his mid-season 2yos run. [As
an aside he said that Princess Iris had been ready to run for 3 weeks but
he had been waiting for firmer going. She's by Desert Prince who doesn't
normally get 5f winners out of mare that has produced only a 12f AW winner
to date. If she can see off fillies with previous runs having assisted
with the pace from a poor draw over 5f she ought to improve and complete
well over 6f+ in better class.]
To this race - it's a weak looking contest on the day with the four
fillies with previous runs having shown moderate form. One of those needs
to step forward greatly or one of the newcomers needs to be above average
to make this better than a moderate quality event. The one filly with previous
experience who might improve a lot is Majestic Roi. She started
favourite for a below average race at Goodwood FTO on softer going. She
was the biggest in the group but looked gawky, leggy and inexperienced.
Having run freely and pressed the pace she stalled before the furlong marker
and was eased after fading tamely. On sales review she ought to be much
better than that and has a chance to prove that here on faster ground.
However, her trainer is in moderate form with his 2yos so far this season
and a number have run poorly STO.
The other two newcomers Adaptation & Cassie's Choice
both have prospects to be minor winners but would be likely to rate in
the 50s FTO if they are average. Adaptation's trainer Mark Johnston has
run more 2yos this year but with the same number of winners as in 2005.
He made a notably slow start last year and a lot of later season winners
rescued the overall results. He must have some better types to run which
might win on debut but the recent ones have been moderate.
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