|
June 11th SUMMING UP
|
A variable quality race over the years but the 2005 edition was probably
as good as it gets. The winner (Assertive) went on to win at Listed level
and place in the Group 2 Gimcrack, the runner-up (Curtail) won a
Listed race in late season, the third was St Leger Sales race winner Johnny
The Fish, eighth was Group 2 dead-heater Close To You & the fourth
- Levera - was a good maiden winner as a juvenile and is progressing to
Group races at 3yo.
This year's field won't compete with that standard by season end but there
is enough quality and promise to suggest a good set of maiden winners and
perhaps the odd one better. The race on the day is made trickier because
two of the top three on profile are poorly drawn. The firmer the going
and the bigger the field at Windsor the more of an advantage a railing
run on the stands' side can be. Each season there are examples of horses
winning maidens by good margins with the rails advantage and looking like
class acts. Reality comes calling when they struggle in better races or
with ludicrous Official Ratings in Nurseries. In 2006 both Camissa and
La Roca have won with some ease by this method. Camissa has already struggled
in better races - how good do you think La Roca's win last week actually
was?
Vaunt made a solid debut in a race at Bath's uphill track that featured
a strong pace with a line-of-three contest for the lead. The winner and
fourth in that race cam from more than 10 lengths off the lead at halfway
which gives a good idea of how the pacemakers set themselves up to get
picked off (although Longquan & especially Dowlleh kept on pretty well
given the race pace). Vaunt lost three lengths with a tardy start but managed
to be within 5 lengths of the pressing leaders at halfway and managed to
find an effort to get to third coming to the final furlong before fading.
His trainer's natural 2yos tend to win within their first two runs and
be amongst his earliest runners. If he were better drawn he would have
a strong profile to be his trainer's first juvenile winner of the season.
Greyt Big Stuff's trainer has run a variety of types in the race
but the last two have been later winners including Johnny The Fish last
season. He ran in a race with an average pace on Yarmouth's flat track
on debut. The 'snapshot' memory of his run is of a solid physical type
(as he looked at the sales) getting outpaced when the race quickened and
then finishing quite well once he got balanced and into stride. He ought
to be one to follow but it will be 'interesting' to see how he fares on
this fast track from a poor draw. He may be keeping on well in the last
furlong but still be chasing something.
The expensive filly Spritza was sent north for debut and did not
achieve much in finishing second in a weak race on heavy ground. She had
the advantage of a rail position in that race. She's well drawn here and
the trainer is back into normal 2yo form after a poor 2005. She should
step forward for this STO run but how much of that expensive price was
because she's a useful athlete? If a lot of it was because her half sister
made 400,000gns at the Broodmare sales then she may not be good enough
to win this anyway.
Scarlet Runner & Miss Saafend Plaza both ran in a baffling
fillies' maiden at Newmarket. The race had a slow pace and turned into
a 2 furlong 'sprint', which along with the soft going, seemed to mix the
runners up (i.e. a good pace on GF going will spread them out by ability).
The 40/1 runner-up has been beaten twice since while the third has looked
a useful filly winning next time. The aforementioned pair finished well
back having been within 2 lengths of the leader at halfway. Miss Saafend
Plaza seems more likely to improve and Scarlet Runner fails a number of
the 'JL Dunlop debut performance' criteria for a future average maiden
winner. Just to spice things up she is well drawn in stall 14 and the Hannon
filly worst away in stall 1.
Of the newcomers it is worth watching for the future prospects of Whazzis
(half sister won FTO at a similar date before winning the Chesham), Eager
Igor (whose trainer has had untypically moderate debuts from his earliest
2yo runners so far) & Our Herbie.
|