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June 22nd, SUMMING UP
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The fillies' 'Coventry' and a new race introduced in 2002 as the 'Carnaervon
Stakes' at Listed level. It has since changed it's name and been upgraded
and presumably it is only a matter of time before it goes up to Group 2
level to match the boys' race. Message to the Pattern Race Committee -
if the race was invented to balance things up why has it gone through this
sham process of 'proving it's worth' to get elevated. Why not just introduce
it to match the Coventry for status in 2002?
The winners have been Duty Paid, Silca's Gift, Jewel In The Sand and La
Chunga. They have managed just two later wins between them, in their careers,
after winning this event. Silca's Gift won the Nell Gwyn at 3yo before
proving out of her depth in better races and Jewel In The Sand won the
Cherry Hinton at 2yo. I'm not sure that accounts for the upgrade in class.
The record looks better if you include the beaten horses with Luvah Girl
(Rockfel) & Mail The Desert (Moyglare Stud) both 2yo Group winners
in 2002. The only other better filly since has probably been Vague who
was second at 50/1 last year as stable second string to La Chunga. The
overall message is that the winner will probably be the best of the precocious
2yos and occasionally there will be better 7f+ fillies in behind.
This year's field look a solid group without anything standing out although
one or two of the top 6 fillies on profile may develop well. That group
does not include the forecast favourite - Bahama Mama - who seems
likely to be poor value on what she has achieved and the scope she has.
A moderate type at the sales she has developed into a ready 2yo but with
limited scope to improve. Her win at Brighton is moderate form and a literal
reading of he debut defeat of Bicoastal misleading.
The subject of misleading race results brings us nicely to the trio of
Bicoastal,
Sander Camillo & Scarlet Runner who are top of the profile.
They ran in the same, baffling, fillies' maiden at Newmarket together with
Bicoastal on her second run (after chasing home Bahama Mama) and the other
pair on debut. If you look at that result
in simple terms it is a conundrum. Bicoastal won which makes sense but
from a 40/1 shot (& second string) who has since been beaten easily
in worse races. The third (Alzerra) has won a maiden looking a good filly
and was entered for this race. Sander Camillo was joint favourite but got
outpaced before staying on into fourth but with three moderate fillies
just behind her. Then came Scarlet Runner who was just ahead of Miss Saafend
Plaza (placed in a good 7f maiden since) and Moist (beaten as favourite
for a Yarmouth seller). Here was a race where the abilities got mixed up.
The four main factors which caused this were probably - the ground was
soft, the race had a slow pace and developed into a short sprint, track
position mattered and a number of the fillies ran poorly on debut. Bicoastal
had already had a run, handled the soft ground and was in the lead when
the sprint started and ended up a comfortable winner. She has scope to
improve further and should be keeping on strongly at the finish here. Sander
Camillo was on debut and did not seem to handle the ground that well and
got outpaced as the race quickened. She dropped back to 8th but rallied
to be keeping on at the finish. Her trainer has already shown with Kalgoorlie
at this meeting that his 2yos can improve greatly for the debut and she
should feature strongly on this ground.
Scarlet Runner is an interesting story and comes out on top partly because
of her improved run at Windsor but also because of her trainer's record.
She was his first 2yo runner of the season and at an earlier date than
usual. Having raced closed to the pace she folded tamely behind Bicoastal.
In hindsight it is possible the trainer took this as a sign he needed to
get his string fitter. Normally he runs a batch of 2yos once he starts
but there was a two week gap after Scarlet Runner's 'failure'. She came
back on better ground to run away with a Windsor maiden aided by the rail
bias. She has scope to improve further and be a good each-way price here.
How many 2yos has John Dunlop run at Ascot (any meeting) in the period
2002-5? The answer is three - Khulood (Group 3) & Big Bad Bob (Listed)
won in 2002 and his only representative since has been Goodwood Spirit
who was 5th in 2005. He has not had a runner at the Royal Meeting in that
period. Given her position as his earliest runner and her appearance at
Ascot for him then Scarlet Runner may well be the precocious filly we are
looking for.
The filly lower down the rankings which niggles away is La Roca.
There is only so much humble pie you can force down and a success for her
would be a worry, not to mention galling.
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