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July 23rd SUMMING UP
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A race with a mixed history but in general the majority of the field are
moderate fillies who will fail to win at 2yo. A prime reason for this relates
to the time of the season. Trainers such as R Hannon (2 runners and last
won it in 2002), M Channon (3 runners & no win in last 10 years) and
B Meehan (2 runners, no win) will already have run and won with their better
5-6f fillies. Their runners in this type of 6f maiden will either be lesser
types with previous outings but struggling to win at open maiden level
or backward types which haven't shown up as natural 2yos in their
large strings and only now starting out. These will include fillies who
really need 7f+.
The last three winners had all had previous runs, won this race and then
failed to win again. 2002 was an exception when R Hannon won with a good
newcomer who had presumably been held by a setback. Last year's field was
unusual with the 'also rans' including Expensive (Watership Down Sales
race victress) and 8f Listed winner Rajeem. They are examples of the other
types of fillies that turn up in the race = needing longer distances (Rajeem)
and with trainers who target development 2yo careers (Expensive).
On profile this year's field looks pretty uninspiring whichever way you
hold it to the light. It is easy to pick holes in the fillies with previous
runs so let's quickly do it. Buddies Girl was a surprise 40/1 second
on debut in a baffling race with useful fillies behind mixed in with garbage.
Her two later runs suggest that first run was misleading and she is as
limited as the 40/1 SP suggested.
Centreboard has a pedigree which says 7f+ and unsurprisingly looked
out of place on debut over 5f on quick ground FTO. At odds-on favourite
she couldn't deal with selling class fillies (the winner assisted by the
'magic carpet' strip next to the rail in the last one furlong plus at Lingfield).
She has had a 37 day break, her trainer is in better form having got two
winners with his early 2yo runners and she steps up to 6f. She has a good
draw in 15 unless it comes up soft so she has a solid profile in this group
but would not set a strong standard and would need to be around 11/4 to
be value.
Mason Ette's trainer used to develop 2yos slowly and then not get
many wins. In the last two seasons he has had his 2yos ready to compete
strongly on debut. They then often fail to progress from their first outing
and only the best typse win. This year he has run 14 and 8 have made the
first four on debut (10 in the first 5). However, the only two wins have
been by Hope'N'charity who won on debut. On balance she seems unlikely
to improve much for her debut and is drawn 5.
Ripping is a classic example of an owner bred filly that the trainer
talks up and runs in better races that often do not win. She has failed
to finish strongly and steps up to 6f. She has a usable draw in 9 but there
is likely to be better in the field.
Miss Jenny comes from a family of natural 2yos that often win early
and on debut. In this context she let the record down by missing the break
by ten lengths and never getting into a similar race here. She steps up
to 6f and is the first string for her trainer. She ought to compete better
but how much of a chance do you want to take when she's poorly drawn and
didn't get out of them last time?
Oh So Saucy runs for Chris Wall who makes a late start with his
2yos each season and brings them along to peak 3TO. His debut runners so
far in 2006 have been poor and his Almondillo was the fattest 2yo B2yoR
has seen this year on his FTO run. Either he is behind schedule or he has
a moderate group of 2yos. His earliest runners usually include the winners
so she may have some ability but is likely to need this as a development
run (his first STO runner). He has run three in the race in 2002-5 with
no places although two of them won later.
So, a race which is crying out for a better class debut runner to iron
the experienced runners out. But nothing realyy stands out amonst the newcomers.
The very expensively puchased Breezeaway should need further than
6f and is a second string for her trainer.
Mick Channon runs three but by now would already have run fillies with
better sprint capabilities over 5-6f. Since June 16th (when Narrjoo won
on debut) he has run 27 FTO and only one has managed to place (the
later Group2 winner Halicarnassus won on debut). Even in a modest race
like this one of his three would need to be a little above average to win
here. The one possibility seems to be Pret A Porter who is ridden
by the only 'usual' stable related jockey. If she is 'any good' the SP
and vibes are likely to be easily noticeable.
Ed Dunlop, like Clive Cox, has also increased the readiness of his 2yos
on debut in recent seasons. Six of fourteen 2yos have made the first three
this year and only two have made 'lost' debuts. Career Girl has
quite a stout pedigree and is moderately drawn and making the first six
would be a solid debut.
In summary, a race lacking a strong contender on profile and one of those
with previous runs is likely to win in struggling style. In a lower quality
race and with a quite closely matched group issues such as the draw and
professionalism are likely to play a bigger role.
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