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For an example of how limited in future relevance these early 2yo races
can be try looking at the result for the equivalent race in 2006 - Race
008. It was Bill Turner's sole debut winner of the season with a runner
who started at 25/1, was 10 lengths adrift at halfway, and kept on in the
straight to pick off garbage and a couple of over-enthusiasts who faded.
He actually was the best horse in the race and the 10 horses managed to
win one other race in the season. That came from Pernomente who
seemed a short runner with a breathing problem and eventually got home
in front on his tenth go in mid October when tongue tied. So, looking at
the field on-course before the race or on TV for 'eyecatchers' would have
been pretty fruitless.
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Looking at the race at a year's remove shows a number of points that tend
to crop up repeatedly - Bill Turner, for all his 'wind them up' reputation
gets debut wins with his best 2yos through ability (where was Goldhill
Fair in the Brocklesby?). Stan Moore often needs a lot of runs to turn
debut promise into wins. Tim Pitt does a lot of things right as a trainer
but hasn't quite got the early 2yo wins sorted yet, his first runner in
2007 ran the same as Fast Freddie in being in the lead late in the race
but fading. And in fourth was a typical example of the early STO filly
for Kevin Ryan that is covered in the Checkout section above. This one
didn't win later which raises doubts over whether her rating of 52 was
correct and the overall level right for the race (the time was 1.5 seconds
slower than Dubai Princess ran last week).
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This year's race has less runners but probably about as much potential.
It is a Median Auction (rather than a Maiden Auction where weights vary
with the 2yos own sales price) which means that runners carry set weight
depending upon their sex but qualify to run because their sires yearlings
sold for a median value less then a set level.
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We can be pretty sure that Thunder Bay is capable of winning at 2yo although
his sire has only managed 3 seller wins in 2005-6, all trained by Mr Channon.
He cost 12,000 guines though so is presumably a little better physical
specimen. David Evans must have a few 2yos capable of winning but Silver
Wind's uncompetitive effort didn't inspire great confidence. Mama Leo ought
to be a minor winner and should compete well enough and place here. Although
neither trainer gets a lot of debuts this looks a softish race and certainly
one that a runner like Thunder Bay ought to get close to winning.
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The other four in the race don't have the potential on profile to win this
FTO unless they are above average or the race falls apart. Grange Poppy
has the pedigree and sales review to compete well enough but her trainer
has never done it. Only In Jest looked too limited a physical type at the
sales. Ron Harris (Miss Antropist) has never had a 2yo winner with 8 representatives
to date and all have been well beaten on debut at longer SPs. Mr Phelan's
only winner was Clinet with his last runners in 2004 and despite her ability
she took three runs to show form and 8 to win.
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The Southwell race is the reverse way round with more runners than 2006
- see Result -
and probably has a touch more substance. Last year Mark Wallace made a
fast start to season by winning this race with one apprentice ridden and
at 10/1 in the face of a long odds-on favourite who had achieved bugg...,
not a lot when placing in a Lingfield race. Geoffdaw is covered above and
isn't going to be 10/1 with Jamie Spencer riding but sets a good standard
in a low quality race and should be good indicator of what Mr Wallace is
doing this year. Two other likely placers are considered above and the
final strongish contender in Mystickhill.
Tim Pitt's Not My Choice did enough for a little 'un in the Brocklesby
to not give up the thought that he might get a debut winner and off bottom
weight she has a good chance to compete well. Mind you, if she fades in
the last furlong having challenged at the distance you might think a pattern
was showing up.
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Going back to last year's race the winner won a Novice later and the second
managed to get his early win. Two others managed to get seller level wins
after numerous runs. The other runners in this field ought to be able to
live up to that standard at least. The most interesting point is what MW
(Mick) Easterby is up to with three runners - Bank On Bertie (Dale Gibson),
Stevie Smurnoff (7lb app.) & Woodford Regen (Paul Mulrennan). Mr Easterby
has a moderate record with 2yos and doesn't seem to take it very seriously
and has a poor strike rate. However, he does run the 2yos he has early,
often and he does seem to have them mostly ready to run to a high level
within their ability on debut. This, along with the uniformally long SPs
FTO, means that he does get long priced placers and odd winners on debut.
He won the first edition of this race with Soto at 5/4 favourite after
he had finished second at 33/1 at Musselburgh the previous week. So, the
best of these may well place but jockey bookings and SPs probably won't
be much help. At the sales Stevie Smurnoff looked an ok physical type in
the context of this race but has the 7lb apprentice aboard.
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Of the others Border Defence represents a trainer who tends to get debut
wins with his best types but they have been in mid-April to early May recently
and the earliest debut normally a sighter with a lesser type. However,
a 'punt' and a shortening of prices would be meaningful with this trainer.
Paddy Reilly looks too stout on the dam side to be a better David Evans
debut and Rope Bridge looked a limited type at the sales and presumably
inferior to Hamish MacGonagall who the trainer ran in the Bricklesby. If
one of Ocean Transit, Pequeno Dinero or Ballycroy Boy win then it may be
time to take up basket weaving. Of course, the Brocklesby went against
a few cherished patterns but there's usually a set of reasons when that
happens - which will be considered in the 'April 1st' space presently.
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