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An untypical edition of the race with a double figure number of runners
when the 4-6 range is normal. As has been in case in recent seasons the
race includes a number of more expensive runners with longer term futures.
In the 2003 edition of the race Neville Callaghan had his first 2yo runner
of the season with a solid 2yo winner in Stealthelimelight. With Keiran
Fallon booked he was punted down to 4/6 favourite before finishing third
of four runners and proved a 70s rater later and his trainer ran him in
a premier claimer. Mr Callaghan ran a similar type in the 2004 race to
finish second in another 4 runner affair behind a David Loder/Sheikh Mohammed
typical debut winner.
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He runs the 60,000 guineas purchase Sirjoshua
Reynolds and he has a good pedigree to make at least a solid 2yo in
the mould of his previous runners. However, normally only his very best
2yos win on debut and he had his first in 2006 (with later Group 2 winner
Excellent Art) since 2003 when the Group 3 winner Barbajuan and 90+ rater
Ballykeating managed it. In 2002 the later Group performers Magistretti
and St Pancras provided two of his three FTO winners. His profile says
he ought to be a 75-85 (BHB range) rated 2yo and wouldn't be ready enough
to win here unless he was better quality than that or this a soft race.
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In that 2003 race the Mick Channon debut 2yo Seneschal started at 11/2
and showed inexperience before rattling home to get second. That runner
won by 6 lengths STO before disappearing for a year. Mr Channon won the
race in 2002 with a STO runner who had run in the Brocklesby and again
in 2005 with a solid debut runner (80s rater) in a small field. That debut
winner was for Jaber Abdullah so typical in that he gets these wins mainly
for a select group of owners. His runner in 2006 was the moderate Goose
Green who cost more than 40,000 but ran for one of his less 'lucky' owners
in Box 41. He managed a modest third in a weaker version of the event.
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This year he goes with the similarly priced Silver
Guest for an owner he very rarely gets debut wins for. Although bought
at the sales it was bred by one of his cronies and he has trained the previous
foals, including two good 5f 2yos. So the horse has swapped ownership between
Channon cronies in some form. He's likely to be another 75-85 rated 2yo
on profile but likely to need the debut to develop to a STO win. The trainer
had his early accidental debut win yesterday in a very soft race and this
one isn't going to be that easy.
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The third expensive purchase is Cee
Bargara (54,000 guineas) for J. Osborne and sire Acclamation's first
representative. The trainer won the first race of the season with a natural
and the early indications are that he has a reasonable set of 2yos to target
at early races as he did in 2004. The pedigree is a sound one for a sprint
2yo and the question is how forward has the trainer got his 2yos this year?
If the first race of the season is a good indication then Cee Bargara would
set a good standard here.
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Having imagined this as a race just between these three horses, i.e. similar
to previous years, then it is possible before the day to foresee a win
for any of the three. However, the least likely is probably Silver Guest
and Cee Bargara depends upon the readiness of the trainer's 2yos overall.
Having seen all three of them at the sales B2yoR will be going to the course
with the mental model of Sirjoshua Reynolds having developed well enough
to wangle a win in this three horse run. At least if you have a plan you
can adapt it if things look different on course.
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Of course, it is a little more complicated because there are another 8
of the little blighters to account for. The set of Fox's
Den, Korcula, Sauze
D'Oulx & Shepherd's
Warning are most unlikely to figure on profile. In a race where it's
possible none of the three expensive types will be tuned for the day there
is an opportunity for a middle ranker who is readier to cause an upset,
in the manner that Chris Dwyer's Who's Winning turned over Stealthelimelight
and Seneschal at 7/1 in 2003.
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The most likely source of that 'shock' would seem to be Stan Moore who
runs two and sets us a poser with John Egan riding the newcomer Nikindi
and Martin Dwyer Southwest Star
who showed inexperience at the start before plugging into 5th last week.
The 7th from that race won what looked a moderate at Southwell yesterday
which seems a positive for him. However, this race looks much stronger
and Southwest Star would have to improve much more to go close here.
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Of the others the usual caveat applies to Paul Blockley's US bred Non
Sucre that he's likely to be a development project but we do need to
keep an eye out for the punt on his best 2yo this year if he has one. This
has been a little later in this month or early May in recent years. An
finally, another regular for the race - Bill Turner - runs the very cheap,
retained, owner bred Portway Lane
and on profile she looks limited. However, at the sales she looked better
than the 1,500 guineas price suggested and not as far behind the expensive
colts as the money suggested. Given that she'll be receiving 12 pounds
with the apprentice allowance and closer to full readiness she should get
as close as she ever will to them. Interesting to see how close that is
and another for a check on the day.
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