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Today's race is a Class 4 Novice (same level as the Brocklesby) which would
allow previous winners to run in it. The later start to the season and
the way Easter has fallen has meant that this event is as early as the
6th race of the season and less than a week after the season start which
is unusual. Although it has attracted a small field, as the Novice races
often do, it has great interest amongst the declared runners. Lack of time
means that this will be a brief summary of what to look for from the runners.
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Two stand out as unusual early debuts for powerful stables and relatively
important owners. Mark Johnston has his first runner of the season at the
earliest end of his normal start period. He has changed approach in recent
seasons. In 2003-4 all of the 2yo debuts in April were winners during
the season although only the best won FTO (Attraction & Joseph Henry).
In the last two years he has run slightly more by end April but the winners
to non-winners has been down to 50%-50%. Overall, the quality has been
more mixed and only a single FTO winner.
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This demonstrates how he takes time to get his debuts in full form because
overall he has a good debut win record - consider his overall season strike
rate between 2003-6 of 14% compared to R. Hannon's 10% and Mick Channon's
9%. Also remember that during a season around 6% of horses win on debut
so all are 'above average' to some extent but this doesn't mean they target
debut wins.
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With that background alone Tazawud
could be any quality and unlikely to win on debut. However, he's a home
bred for major owner Hamdan Al Maktoum and that is often significant. B2yoR
has previously noted that backing all of the debut runners for this owner
trained by JL Dunlop often gives a good profit in a season. A reader of
the site followed that up with some other stats for the owner with other
trainers and the general message was, that with some simple rules, you
could find good returns on his 2yos in many circumstances. (A subject will
return to during the season if Mr Goodman is ok with us using his numbers.)
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In more general terms, here is a 2yo by a solid, precocious sire out of
a well related mare who's produced limited quality foals to date. Why is
he running so early in the season? He might be useless and expendable but
that's most unlikely given the owner - he'd 'lose' garbage in other ways,
often via the 'Horses In Training' sales. He is almost certainly a little
above average and will be a 2yo winner - but will he be high enough class
to win FTO for this trainer.
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We have another surprise with Kevin Ryan running the expensive colt
Fast Feet for an owner who had
the Group winner Wi Dud last year (a debut winner). We emphasise 'colt'
in the previous sentence because Mr Ryan just doesn't run his better males
this early. This is when he runs his expendable fillies such as Miss Redbrick
who finished a typical 5th FTO at Southwell on Monday. The same question
arises - Why is he running this early? At the sales he was similar to Wi
Dud in size and strong build and a taking dark colour, as a lot by his
first season sire were. Has he developed well enough to be really useful?
If so he would win here off a normal trainer preparation.
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Rod Millman went through a stage of running his best 2yo in the early April
races at this course but in the last few seasons we've only seen the average,
or worse, ones. Brassini has enough in his pedigree to believe he will
be an average winner but not to take on the the best of the two 'surprise'
declarations if they come up to expectations. Ten Down probably warrant
similar comments and his trainer - Jamie Osborne - has clearly targeted
and early start this year but the indications are that they include various
quailty individuals.
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If either of the other two win it will be a case of "Hello, Art Shop?"
because it really will be basket-weaving after a none too predictable start
to the season. The poor to moderate trainer of 2yos Alan Bailey almost
made the 'basket weaving' threat come true on Monday when Ballycroy Boy's
natural ability meant he managed to avoid being nailed to the floor by
his trainer by finishing second. Mind you, the preparation had left him
inexperienced enough to get well behind before a strong finish through
faders got second. Mr Bailey hasn't had a debut winner since the 1990s
so the punt on Ballycroy Boy would have been more effective if he still
knew how.
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The next 2yo race will be on Saturday the 7th. In the interim the Previews
will be used to review the Brocklesby result (April 1st Link) and the Folkestone
maiden (April 5th space).
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