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Next, oh yes, Ballycroy Boy.
In the preview for the Southwell race that Ballycroy Boy finished second
in B2yoR suggested that he pretty much had no chance on profile. He cost
only 4,000 guineas at the sales, his dam had never produced a 2yo winner
and none at all since her 2000 foal. On top of that he was trained by Alan
Bailey who hasn't had a debut winner since, well we don't actually know.
Added to that his trainer had a grand total of 34 debuts by 2yos between
2002-6 and only 4 have made a place. As many as 18 of the 34 hadn't made
the first 6 and only 3 had been at a single figure SPs (including none
of the placed three and only one that ever won at 2yo). Admit it, it'd
take some polishing to get the dust off that lot.
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But, he gets support in the market down to 8/1 and the vibes are that he's
ok. As expected given the trainer he shows plenty of inexperience and is
driven along early but drops back to 12th of the 13 runners and more than
10 lengths off the leader. He's still around 10th place with a furlong
to go but the front half of that field went hard enough that they were
all fading to some extent. He stays on well and gets through to second
and looking relatively fresh. The horse in 3rd was the favourite and was
ninth at halfway around 5 lengths ahead of him.
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To break off for a moment if you look at the Result
of that Southwell race it is interesting. The column entitled 'Run Style'
tells you how the horse ran and what position it was in at halfway. The
winner was in the lead at halfway and hung on depite stalling in the final
furlong and had the advantage of a previous run. The next six horses home
are a mix of 'deep closers' who were well back at halfway and horses who
were in the first 5 and faded to some degree. If this was a race on turf
it would be an unusual mix. On that surface if the leaders had gone hard
enough to allow horses in 12th and 9th to close right down the winner would
come from a horse tracking the leaders or in midfield. They would have
been 2-3 lengths off the pace and would have been able to pick up and keep
ahead of any horse coming from 10 lengths back.
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But this was a race on sand and pretty much every horse went as fast as
it could on the surface for as long as it could from the start, apart
from those that didn't know what was required so bumbled around at the
back to some extent. Which is probably why the horses in the first 8 places
at halfway all faded to some degree in a fair approximation of their relative
ability. Likewise, the the runners who were 9th to 13th at halfway all
appeared to stay on to some extent and the final placing they got to a
similar indication of their merits (as amended by their degree of incompetence).
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So, a good debut by Ballycroy Boy and if he can get away with the rest
of them here he ought to be hard to beat? Well, maybe so but B2yoR will
be trying hard to find the right one to beat him. We'll go on to some factors
which make him beatable but at the top level there are some trainers which
it just doesn't pay to follow. The 2yos careers don't have consistent plans
applied, they don't win when they are supposed to, and so forth. In these
cases then, in the longer term, it is better to find alternatives to bet
on. Of course, these trainers will have a small number of winners and turn
your fancy over from time to time. When that happens, it's time to celebrate
the horse's ability to be able to win despite the handler. The horse is
the hero of this game, after all. So, best of luck Ballycroy Boy and don't
read the rest of this.
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If we look at his performance at Southwell it looked like that of a stayer
on a slow surface. He demonstrated his ability to keep on through faders
but he'll face a different race here. This will be faster event on good
to firm turf and the leaders are likely to hang on ok and, as described
above, the trackers (closer up to the pace) will be best placed to move
through if the leaders fade. How much do you want to trust a horse who
didn't know enough to keep up on a slower surface just 6 days ago?
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The historical stats demonstrate the point about Mr Bailey being a trainer
to be a little wary of. How many of those 4 horses that placed FTO for
him between 2002-6 won on their next outing? None of them, one finished
a good second in a better race, one was third and the others unplaced,
three ran to lower ratings. The three worst performances of those four
were with second runs within a week as with Ballycroy Boy. His only STO
winner in the last four years was off a 28+ day break and he's not had
a success before June in that period. So, Ballycroy Boy will need to be
an unusual horse to win here and backing that sort of profile won't get
the job done in the long run.
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[UPDATE - April 8th]
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Having outlined a lot of reasons to be wary of Ballycroy Boy's effort today
and especially at any shorter price it's worth looking at the opposition
to see what there is that might win on debut. The results are quite encouraging
in terms of trainers represented and pedigrees. Let's go down the card
and start with Elijah Pepper
who was bought at the Keeneland September Yearling Sales (near Lexington,
Kentucky in the US) quite cheaply. His trainer - David Barron - has been
visiting these sales for many years and bring back horses with 'exotic'
pedigrees to european eyes to target at 2yo racing. The success has been
variable over the years as, indeed, is his overall record with 2yos. Between
1999-2003 he had a good record and a strike rate varying between 10-19%
where 10% is a rough average across all trainers. In the last three years,
2004-6, he has run more 2yos but his strike rate went down to between 5-10%
but 2004 a notably poor season.
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We can see some good patterns in his handling of 2yos though despite the
varying final results. His 2yos tend to be ready and competent on their
debuts and later winners usually make the first 6 with many placed. Between
2003-6 he has had 28 juvenile winners and 18 have made the first 3 on debut
and only four failed to make the first 6. His 10 debut winners since 2002
have all been by June with the majority in March to May and early debut
winners no problem for him. His first runner in 2006 won FTO on Mar 30th
for example.
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The debut SP is a solid indicator of what to expect in line with the way
he prepares his 2yos and his sound knowledge of how good they are before
they run. In general, he's a trainer we can trust to get the job done right
if the material is ok. He's only had one 2yo start at 5/1 or less in the
last three years and this has matched to poorer seasons he has had lacking
better 2yos. Equally, of the 60 horses to start at more than 10/1 on debut
in 2003-6 only one has won. Most debut winners start in the 5/1 to 10/1
range unless they are really good when they may go lower. In summary, if
Elijah Pepper is any good he'll be around 5-6/1 and a solid opponent for
Ballycroy Boy.
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Guertino runs for a trainer who
gets his runners probably slightly more ready on debut then Mr Barron.
In the last four years Bryan Smart has had a total of 18 individual winners
and as many as 7 have won on debut (going on 40% and a notably high figure).
Added to that his earliest debutes will include some of his best 2yos,
although also at least one duff one in the first two runners. Which type
is Guertino? If he's ok he'll show up well here. At the sales he cost only
14,000 guineas but is by Choisir who has made a good start in his first
season with two first four placers and a good debut win from Fat Boy with
his first three runners. His sales review showed him to be a small, compact
and ready 2yo and a note of "Why Cheap?, track." In short, a solid little
2yo who should be ok early. The SPs on debut also show some correlation
to ability with Mr Smart (although not as strongly as Mr Barron's). So,
watch the price and one to consider.
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Of the others we ought to be able to rule out Limestone
(although his trainer runs his 'winner' early each season and they show
up FTO if they have any ability and will definitely be at peak STO), Primo
Heights and the Mel Brittain pair of Straight
& Upstanding. Mr Brittain
apparently has 40 juveniles this year which is a remarkable increas
and investment given his recent record but none of the three debuts to
dat have been competitive which matches his overall record.
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Maracana Boy is covered in the Checkout section above which leaves Ian
Semple's Howards Way and Kevin
Ryan's Eager Diva and both have
eough positives to be interesting. We have already seen two of Mr Ryan's
early 'STO Fillies' run this season and both have finished in the 4-5th
range and looking in the right place to peak for their STO win attempts.
Eager Diva has an all American pedigree (bought at the same sale as Elijah
Pepper) and a little more expensive than the usual expendable filly he
shows us at this time of the season. She's by a good sire in British 2yos
terms with More Than Ready
but out of a stouer mare. On balance, more one to watch for how good she
is for a her second run rather than a win here.
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Mr Semple doesn't run a lot of 2yos but the earliest debuts each season
are normally the competitive ones and often for this owner. This one was
retaned for a relatively high amount by the owner breeder's standards and
you can vaguely speculate that he's been saving this name (after all the
Howard's Prince, Howard's Tipple, stuff) for a better individual. Anyway,
Mr Semple does get the odd debut win and place with better and ok types
so another to watch for signs of life.
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In summary, an interesting race for future relevance in terms of minor,
early, winners and perhaps a better type hidden amongst them. B2yoR will
be against Ballycroy Boy but a difficult choice between the others unless
you are at the course. SPs will be an indicator for Elijah Boy and Guertino
and the better of these may be the best alternative assuming Maracan Boy
has not developed well since the yearling sales.
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