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After a pair of interesting races over the weekend the two races on the
Warwick Easter Monday card look low quality and with limited future significance.
There are traditionally two 5f maiden fillies' races at Warwick in early
April and the Racing Post has decided that this one is the equivalent of
the second of those in 2006 which was won by Just Joey. The earlier race,
on the same Easter card as the seller, was won by Gilded. Whichever, you
take to be the real equivalent try looking at these two results of those
2006 races - Gilded's Race
Result and Just Joey's Result.
In particular look at the column labeled 'Wnr' in each case because a capital
'W' next to the horse indicates one that won later in the season.
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Gilded went on to be a multiple Group winner of course but behind her there
were only 3 other winners and only Gradetime won above seller/claimer level.
Just Joey was a rare debut winner for moderate 2yo handler John Weymes
and won a nursery in later season. The fillies immdeiately behind her were
very limited sorts on their seond runs and the only later winners above
claimer level were La Roca in 6th and Cavort in 13th (in season and ran
poorly because of that).
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Also of interest in those results is that both Mick Channon and Rod Millman
had representatives in each race, three of the four never won and Queen
Of Narnia won at seller level. Mr Channon has debuted all abilities in
these early Warwick races since 2002 from Group 1 placed Majestic Desert
(won FTO) through to garbage. BA
Speedbird is relatively expensive at 18,000 guineas in this field but
looked a limited type at the sales. She is owned by a partnership of British
Airways employees who have had success with 2yos BA Highflyer (3rd on debut)
and BA Foxtrot (won FTO) with the same trainer. This is such a thin quality
race that a place for BA Speedbird is entirely possible without he being
much cop, i.e. a Queen Of Narnia claimer type.
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Mr Millman's Alto Singer also
cost 18,000 at the sales and an above average amount for him. His Warwick
debuts since 2002 have been minor winners at best in the season and none
have placed. After his quick start with a precocious group in 2005 he seems
to have settled back to having his runners less ready FTO in 2006 and with
the two so far in 2007 (both 4th). Similar comments to BA Speedbird apply
in that she could make the first four and still not be very good.
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Which means that the three with some 'form' in the book - Mystickhill,
Mama Leo & Only
In Jest should make up the rest on the first five-six placings here
and quite possibly the winner. Mystickhill ran a solid race on slow AW
going at Southwell and faded in the last furlong. She looked small but
competent and should show some improvement but doesn't set a strong standard.
Mama Leo had a minor excuse on her debut run in that she gave trouble loading
into the stalls (hooded eventually) and then ran too freely in the race.
She was ahead of Only In Jest until fading late in the final furlong and
had not been outpaced as much as that runner when the 'sprint' started
after a jog down to the straight. Of the two Mama Leo is much preferred
but both are small and limited athletes.
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So, where are we? A race which ought to have a warning on it about 'caveat
puntor' or whatever. Nothing sets a strong standard which means a range
of fillies can reach it and none would win backed by a strong profile.
However, the five already mentioned should make up most of the first 6-7
home. If we think back to that Just Joey race let us imaging for a moment
that Just Joey didn't exist. The first three would have been runners bringing
in a similar level of form to those STO fillies here. One of them would
have won and none of the others ever progressed. That's one of the possible
results here and you take your choice between Mystickhill and Mama Leo.
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One of the more expensive fillies might win but neither BA Speedbird nor
Alto Singer looked close enough to average to win off a typical preparation.
Which leaves the final option of a surprise from somewhere. Just Joey only
cost 5,200 guineas and won at 14/1 for a lesser trainer because she was
just plain better than the STO runners. The best option on profile would
be Sinead Of Aglish but overall
a race to watch only.
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In several ways the preceding seller is more interesting than the maiden
fillies and it will be interesting to see which is run in the faster time.
As covered above Iamagrey looked like a 'STO seller' type from her entry
at Kempton on Saturday. She was 20/1 there which suggested similar ability
and she was a thorough nuisance in the preliminaries which required Mr
Moore to step in personally to get her to behave. However, she then ran
very well in the race against real racehorses and not the sort of wind-up
ponies on show on the Warwick card. Breaking well she sat behind Artdeal
and in front of Fat Boy. That race was run in just an average pace and
she was outpaced by those two as they made their efforts in the straight
but she showed some response and none of the horses behind got to her.
She ought to be a certainty here and would be a very strong contender if
she was in the fillies' maiden instead and hence the interest in the relative
times.
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Since we are dealing with Iamagrey who ran at Kempton yesterday here is
a short summary of how the runners in that field looked in paddock review.
In general the field had less depth of quality than the profiles, and the
upbeat preview. suggested. The Result
shows that the best two physical types finished in the first two places
with a gap back to Iamagrey in third. She showed the most professionalism
amongst the others in a race with a usable pace and a middling overall
time which enabled her to make 3rd even though her trainer thinks she's
seller quality.
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The links from the horse's name goes to the best picture of them taken
on the day, other pictures are in the season archive.
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FAT BOY - As
advertised in the preview. Size, length, build, good attitude, better type
of his sire, etc. Didn't have to achieve a lot to win but did it well and
wasn't strongly fit. Ought to be Listed class at least and a better prospect
than Godfrey Street looked in the same race for example.
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ARTDEAL -
A pleasant surprise. Tallest of the group and an athletic mover although
with typical Fasliyev narrower body, unlike Fat Boy. A sort of more lightly
built Deadshot Keen. Ought to be able to rate 78-80 and improve his maturity.
Likeable and more than capable of an open maiden win but of nursery standard
later.
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IAMGREY -
Smaller but with solid build and not the scrawny rabbit that a seller type
might indicate. Gave trouble in preliminaries and the bad attitude perhaps
a contributory factor in the seller run. Better than the average, early,
seller runner as a physical type.
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BELLA NATASHA
- Straight out of 'Central Casting' for a K. Ryan 'STO Filly'. If you remember
Amber Glory and Amber Valley who we think ran in the same colours here's
another one. Slightly ompact, smaller size, deep bodied, but strong filly.
Not ready to run to here best here lacking full fitness and still a little
immature which made the market support a surprise. A 70-75 rater before
it declines as the season goes on and a strong contender STO.
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RIO TAFFETA
- Small, neat and a little underpowered. Just an ok type and an early winner
at best. The type the trainer gets rated higher than he should be through
running early.
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PRIVATE CODE
- The preview asked the question of why she was running early - was she
small and limited and needed to be out early to win or was she some good?
She was the smallest in the field and limited to 60s rating probably despite
her pedigree relations. Looked unable to go with the pace when it increased
in the straight although more professional in attitude then many in the
field.
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SPLITTHEDIFFERENCE
- different type to his trainer's other runner (Rio Taffeta). Taller and
narrower and lacking build. Entirely gormless in the race and lost ground
on the first bend. Kept on late but into limited types. A 50s to early
60s rater and possibly better further.
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BAZGUY - Small
but heavily built and very strong in front. Didn't look ready to compete
here either in terms of mental readiness nor physical fitness. Is the trainer
changing his approach? Not a surprise to see him run moderately and never
get into the race but a worry because the trainer's runners in the past
don't develop much from debut. Ought to be a 65-72 rater on physical build
but didn't show that here. In the 'Pending' tray.
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DEFNIKOV
- Awful, skinny, leggy, very narrow and light behind. Interesting to know
what he weighs because it must be well below average even though he's medium
height. A poor specimen and a worry that his rating is as high as 33 for
this run despite limiting Fat Boy to 58. Not even real seller class.
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LORD DEEVERT
- Taller but quite narrow and lacking build. Appeared well prepared but
mostly unco-operative in the race although responding breifly to early
driving and whipping in the straight. Ought to be a low 60s rater at best
but his trainer is another, like Bazguy's Mr Evans, where it doesn't often
pay to make excuses for duff first efforts. In general with these two trainers,
what you see on debut is what there is to get.
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[There's no 2yo race on Tuesday followed by two at Bath on Wednesday (one
a seller), a maiden at Leicester on Thursday and two on Friday at Folkestone
& Southwell.]
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