British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - April 11th 
Today's Races
  • [11] : Bath 2:30, 5f Maiden (5)
  • [12] : Bath 3:00, 5f Seller (6)

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    Trainer :
    Paddock Review :
    Ratings :
  • Concertmaster rated 51 on debut when not strongly fit and fading in the last furlong. He should rate around 60 in this race with normal trainer development to a second run. This is likely to be close to his peak and he did not look to have the scope to develop to a higher rating on debut. This sets a solid standard for a newcomer to reach and a little higher than the debut winner in 2006.
  • Other :
  • First season sire Choisir has made a decent start with four runners so far and one good winers with Fat Boy. He has three debut runners in this race and they are the highest rated newcomers in the race - Group Therapy, Just A Dancer & Higgy's Boy. The race will therefore give a further insight into how successful a season he is likely to have.

  •   April 10th Summary : 
     
    • At Warwick on Bank Holiday Monday we had a good demonstration of how the 'the experience of a previous run' isn't a cure for limited ability. In a race between similar physical types experience will play a big role but it will not cover up the cracks when the differences exist. B2yoR would encourage people to review the video of the seller at Warwick and keep the picture of the first furlong in your mind for future reference. Nestor Protector was backed from 12/1 to 15/2 in a weak looking race where those with previous runs had achieved very little while looking small and incompetent in doing it. He may have been on debut but was two sizes larger and at least one bigger build than any other in the field. Without needing to know much he was just 'too big and too good' and the jockey just had to keep him straight to win comfortably. [After a bit of experience of looking at races this way, i.e. believing you can see quality of runners from screen pictures, you'll find yourself spotting out of place runners quite easily.]
    • They had to go to 12,600 guineas to retain him the auction after the race and even on TV vieweing he clearly was a different type to the seller rabbits and hat-racks he raced against. In the following fillies' maiden the best of those with previous runs had looked 'racy & early' in the 'very small' sense. They were easily beaten by two debutantes who put 5 lengths between them and the best of the STO runners in Mystickhill. The time for that race appeared quite good and much better than the seller and the gap back to the third suggested the first two are natural 2yos in the 'Just Joey' mode from 2006.
    • The Bath maiden gives us another round of the FTO versus experience battle. Six of the field have run before but three achieved nothing - although Lord Deevert looked capable of better than his somewhat mulish display at Kempton. The other three all ran in the first race of the season and finished close together in 2nd to 5th in a ruck four lengths behind Dubai Princess. The only subsequent runner from that race - Baytown Blaze - went to Southwell and won a moderate event by two lengths. The subsequent runs by the second at Southwell (Ballycroy Boy 'burst' trying to follow a quick pace at Musselburgh) and the fourth (Mystickhill who was ironed out at Warwick) tend to confirm the low quality of that race.
    • Which means choosing between Concertmaster (2nd), Ben (4th) & Southwest Star (5th) for the best of the 'previous' types here. On the day the Concertmaster looked the best type and was the least ready. He got to second by railing well before stalling late on and dropping back to the ruck. As covered above he should improve enough to be best of that group here. Ben was much fitter and readier at Lingfield and there seems likely to be little improvement. Southwest Star, unlike the other two, never got into the race and stayed on from behind and doesn't posses a real 5f pedigree. He should be better on this stiffer track but looked a lesser physical type than Concertmaster.
    • While not wishing to go 'all west coast' on you it can often help to work on the result of a race by visualising possible results and seeing if they agree with instinct. In this case if B2yoR does that the instinct comes back and says while Concertmaster was nice enough he isn't going to set a strong standard here and there's enough in the newcomers to think something will be better. Looking at the - Result - for this race in 2006 you'll see that the two runners with form started favourite and joint second favourite before managing 5th and 8th in another larger field. As with Nestor Protector the winner of that race was just plain bigger than the rest and got the job done.
    • So, a race where Concertmaster ought to place but the others in the first three will probably be newcomers. The most interesting of them is Jamie Osborne's Group Therapy who is by Choisir and out of a dam who has already produced a Group placed, 5f 2yo winner. Given that pedigree the 30,000 guineas he cost isn't that high suggesting just an ok physical type. However, his trainer has made a good start this year with a debut winner and another who was just pipped having travelled best in the race. In this case the market is likely to be useful because Mr Osborne will know how Group Therapy compares to Dubai Princess & Ten Down. In the vast majority of cases when you see 'The market should be the best guide' in summaries such as the Racing Post it is actually not the case but here it will be.
    • Richard Hannon has his second runner of the year with another son of Choisir having won with Fat Boy. The preview for that race laid out, at some length what to expect from Mr Hannon's early runners. We are in the initial group of his 'First 15' team debuts and we should be expecting either another solid future winner here or a complete duffer (the first three debs are often 2-1 by Winners to Non-Winners). Higgy's Boy looks more solid future winner than duffer on profile but would need to be a better quality runner to win off a normal trainer preparation. His wide draw added to the pedigree suggets more a satisfactory first four placing than a debut win. Fat Boy didn't produce a high class performance, in absolute terms, at Kempton, he was so much better than the others in physical spec that he wasn't really tested in a race with a usable pace.
    • The race has further interest because it sees the first runner for an important trainer for juvenile racing with BW Hill's Just A Dancer. In the last 4 seasons Mr Hills has run a total of 14 of his 2yos on debut in March-April and as many as 12 have won during their season. The only two non-winners were Eager Lover who placed fourth in the equivalent race last year but showed enough ability in later races to win with a normal campaign and the placer Make Me An Offer. 
    • So, we can assume Just A Dancer is a solid 2yo who ought to win during the year. At the sales she was physically immature, weak legged and not that powerful behind. Overall, she looked likely to be a minor 2yo winner, perhaps a little less talented than Frisky Talk who made an early debut for the trainer last year. She has an interesting pedigree being by Choisir out of New Foundation - see comparison pictures of the sire & dam. That filly won on debut for Richard Hannon in 2002 and he considered her close to his best sprint filly. She ran in Listed races and the Flying Childers but her form quickly tailed off after that early success and she often looked reluctant. Her best later effort was a fourth in the Supersprint. They ran her 18 times as a 3yo for one place in a claimer before she was sold off for 4,000 guineas. Downhill, most of the way after her Warwick debut.
    • Mr Hills has an interesting approach to debut runs and one which leads to consistent results. In a normal year he gets around 8% FTO wins which is above average but below the 9-15% for other major trainers like Hannon, Mick Channon & Mark Johnston. He gets debut wins in three clear types :-
      • Early debut wins with better quality types - like Silk Blossom in April 2006 - along with the odd early 'accident' in a soft race.
      • Wins for high class 2yos, often the best runners of his major Arab clients, in the first part of June like Thousand Words in 2006.
      • Occasional late season wins for the long 'tail' of backward types in later season = late August onwards. In general his late season debuts are well prepared and if there is any worthwhile ability they will make the first 3, no matter what the size of field.
    • But his record is more interesting still because despite the lowish FTO strike rate future winners nearly always make the first 6 and after the earliest debuts will rate above 56 on B2yoR figures. Consider that a little, the pre-debut work and race choice is so fined tuned the debut wins are lowish but the horses are always 'on the premises'. All part of a shrewd trainer who we can take very seriously.
    • We'll consider his overall record with debuts more, especially with respect to SP, but the first debuts each year tend to be 'sighters' and a little more variable. But if Just A Dancer can run to a rating in the fifties along with her 5lb allowance she's going to be in the first 4 here.
    • So, if pressed, the most likely pair are Group Therapy and Concertmaster to compete for the win. The niggle with Concertmaster is that something a bit bigger and more capable will be too strong in the final furlong on this track after a slightly limp last 100 yards FTO. Jamie Osborne's record this year suggests Group Therapy will be a real contender if supported and less than 4/1. Just A Dancer and Higgy's Boy should be close up and Southwest Star and Ben in the 4th-7th area. There's bound to be a longer priced runner showing up given the year to date and the possibles in order are Madam Superior, Vhujon (surely David Evans has at least one decent 2yo somewhere) and Mister Cafnex.
    • The seller looks a dreadful race and requirng such a low level to win that anything could. The obvious point to note is that John Spearing had a rare FTO winner in the race last year and has the most expensive 2yo in the field with My Sheilas Dream (owned by the wife?).
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