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At Warwick on Bank Holiday Monday we had a good demonstration of how the
'the experience of a previous run' isn't a cure for limited ability. In
a race between similar physical types experience will play a big role but
it will not cover up the cracks when the differences exist. B2yoR would
encourage people to review the video of the seller at Warwick and keep
the picture of the first furlong in your mind for future reference. Nestor
Protector was backed from 12/1 to 15/2 in a weak looking race where those
with previous runs had achieved very little while looking small and incompetent
in doing it. He may have been on debut but was two sizes larger and at
least one bigger build than any other in the field. Without needing to
know much he was just 'too big and too good' and the jockey just had to
keep him straight to win comfortably. [After a bit of experience of looking
at races this way, i.e. believing you can see quality of runners from screen
pictures, you'll find yourself spotting out of place runners quite easily.]
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They had to go to 12,600 guineas to retain him the auction after the race
and even on TV vieweing he clearly was a different type to the seller rabbits
and hat-racks he raced against. In the following fillies' maiden the best
of those with previous runs had looked 'racy & early' in the 'very
small' sense. They were easily beaten by two debutantes who put 5 lengths
between them and the best of the STO runners in Mystickhill. The time for
that race appeared quite good and much better than the seller and the gap
back to the third suggested the first two are natural 2yos in the 'Just
Joey' mode from 2006.
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The Bath maiden gives us another round of the FTO versus experience battle.
Six of the field have run before but three achieved nothing - although
Lord Deevert looked capable of better than his somewhat mulish display
at Kempton. The other three all ran in the first race of the season and
finished close together in 2nd to 5th in a ruck four lengths behind Dubai
Princess. The only subsequent runner from that race - Baytown Blaze - went
to Southwell and won a moderate event by two lengths. The subsequent runs
by the second at Southwell (Ballycroy Boy 'burst' trying to follow a quick
pace at Musselburgh) and the fourth (Mystickhill who was ironed out at
Warwick) tend to confirm the low quality of that race.
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Which means choosing between Concertmaster (2nd), Ben (4th) & Southwest
Star (5th) for the best of the 'previous' types here. On the day the Concertmaster
looked the best type and was the least ready. He got to second by railing
well before stalling late on and dropping back to the ruck. As covered
above he should improve enough to be best of that group here. Ben was much
fitter and readier at Lingfield and there seems likely to be little improvement.
Southwest Star, unlike the other two, never got into the race and stayed
on from behind and doesn't posses a real 5f pedigree. He should be better
on this stiffer track but looked a lesser physical type than Concertmaster.
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While not wishing to go 'all west coast' on you it can often help to work
on the result of a race by visualising possible results and seeing if they
agree with instinct. In this case if B2yoR does that the instinct comes
back and says while Concertmaster was nice enough he isn't going to set
a strong standard here and there's enough in the newcomers to think something
will be better. Looking at the - Result
- for this race in 2006 you'll see that the two runners with form started
favourite and joint second favourite before managing 5th and 8th in another
larger field. As with Nestor Protector the winner of that race was just
plain bigger than the rest and got the job done.
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So, a race where Concertmaster ought to place but the others in the first
three will probably be newcomers. The most interesting of them is Jamie
Osborne's Group Therapy who is by Choisir and out of a dam who has already
produced a Group placed, 5f 2yo winner. Given that pedigree the 30,000
guineas he cost isn't that high suggesting just an ok physical type. However,
his trainer has made a good start this year with a debut winner and another
who was just pipped having travelled best in the race. In this case the
market is likely to be useful because Mr Osborne will know how Group Therapy
compares to Dubai Princess & Ten Down. In the vast majority of cases
when you see 'The market should be the best guide' in summaries such as
the Racing Post it is actually not the case but here it will be.
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Richard Hannon has his second runner of the year with another son of Choisir
having won with Fat Boy. The preview for that race laid out, at some length
what to expect from Mr Hannon's early runners. We are in the initial group
of his 'First 15' team debuts and we should be expecting either another
solid future winner here or a complete duffer (the first three debs are
often 2-1 by Winners to Non-Winners). Higgy's Boy looks more solid future
winner than duffer on profile but would need to be a better quality runner
to win off a normal trainer preparation. His wide draw added to the pedigree
suggets more a satisfactory first four placing than a debut win. Fat Boy
didn't produce a high class performance, in absolute terms, at Kempton,
he was so much better than the others in physical spec that he wasn't really
tested in a race with a usable pace.
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The race has further interest because it sees the first runner for an important
trainer for juvenile racing with BW Hill's Just
A Dancer. In the last 4 seasons Mr Hills has run a total of 14 of his
2yos on debut in March-April and as many as 12 have won during their season.
The only two non-winners were Eager Lover who placed fourth in the equivalent
race last year but showed enough ability in later races to win with a normal
campaign and the placer Make Me An Offer.
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So, we can assume Just A Dancer is a solid 2yo who ought to win during
the year. At the sales she was physically immature, weak legged and not
that powerful behind. Overall, she looked likely to be a minor 2yo winner,
perhaps a little less talented than Frisky Talk who made an early debut
for the trainer last year. She has an interesting pedigree being by Choisir
out of New Foundation - see comparison
pictures of the sire & dam. That filly won on debut for Richard
Hannon in 2002 and he considered her close to his best sprint filly. She
ran in Listed races and the Flying Childers but her form quickly tailed
off after that early success and she often looked reluctant. Her best later
effort was a fourth in the Supersprint. They ran her 18 times as a 3yo
for one place in a claimer before she was sold off for 4,000 guineas. Downhill,
most of the way after her Warwick debut.
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Mr Hills has an interesting approach to debut runs and one which leads
to consistent results. In a normal year he gets around 8% FTO wins which
is above average but below the 9-15% for other major trainers like Hannon,
Mick Channon & Mark Johnston. He gets debut wins in three clear types
:-
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Early debut wins with better quality types - like Silk Blossom in April
2006 - along with the odd early 'accident' in a soft race.
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Wins for high class 2yos, often the best runners of his major Arab clients,
in the first part of June like Thousand Words in 2006.
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Occasional late season wins for the long 'tail' of backward types in later
season = late August onwards. In general his late season debuts are well
prepared and if there is any worthwhile ability they will make the first
3, no matter what the size of field.
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But his record is more interesting still because despite the lowish FTO
strike rate future winners nearly always make the first 6 and after the
earliest debuts will rate above 56 on B2yoR figures. Consider that a little,
the pre-debut work and race choice is so fined tuned the debut wins are
lowish but the horses are always 'on the premises'. All part of a shrewd
trainer who we can take very seriously.
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We'll consider his overall record with debuts more, especially with respect
to SP, but the first debuts each year tend to be 'sighters' and a little
more variable. But if Just A Dancer can run to a rating in the fifties
along with her 5lb allowance she's going to be in the first 4 here.
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So, if pressed, the most likely pair are Group Therapy and Concertmaster
to compete for the win. The niggle with Concertmaster is that something
a bit bigger and more capable will be too strong in the final furlong on
this track after a slightly limp last 100 yards FTO. Jamie Osborne's record
this year suggests Group Therapy will be a real contender if supported
and less than 4/1. Just A Dancer
and Higgy's Boy should be close
up and Southwest Star and Ben in the 4th-7th area. There's bound to be
a longer priced runner showing up given the year to date and the possibles
in order are Madam Superior,
Vhujon (surely David Evans has at
least one decent 2yo somewhere) and Mister
Cafnex.
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The seller looks a dreadful race and requirng such a low level to win that
anything could. The obvious point to note is that John Spearing had a rare
FTO winner in the race last year and has the most expensive 2yo in the
field with My Sheilas Dream
(owned by the wife?).
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