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13 races into the season and only one horse has won that had previous experience.
The last six races have been won by newcomers despite experienced runners
in the field. Today's maiden at Leicester saw Silver Guest beaten as odds-on
favourite with the rest of the field at 10/1 or more. In spite of his run
his effort at Leicester was eerily similar to his debut. Broke well enough
but them bumbled around a bit (assisted by some typical lets-get-behind-so-I-can
show everyone-how-good-I-am work by Jamie Spencer) and got chopped off
by more aggressively ridden rivals. Lost concentration at that point and
became a little unbalanced, possibly not liking the firm going which saw
horses withdrawn in later races because of it's state.
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5 or 6 lengths back at halfway on the stands' rail and having to move toward
the centre of the course to make progress. Exactly as at Folkestone he
travelled well and allowed Mr Spencer to do a bit of motionless posing
as he closed the leaders down towards the final furlong. At that stage
you, and certainly the jockey, thought he was going to carry on through
and win, workmanlike style ok, but win. At Folkestone he met an opponent
in Nikindi who responded to him getting close and battling on and the jockey
accepted that tomorrow would be fine. Here he seemed to hesitate at the
furlong mark from going forward (perhaps not wanting to lengthen on the
firm ground?) and the jockey got to serious work. He again met a rival
in Kersaint who found more for being challenged and, in B2yoR's view, he
wasn't especially keen to go by. Now, he's a young horse and it's quite
likely he's still pretty immature, having been entirely gormless at Folkestone,
and he didn't quite know what was expected of him. He's got more ability
than he's shown but needs to grow up to show it.
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We've relearnt one lesson already from this which is that the very earliest
races of the season can often be quite weak and the placed runners not
that strong. The win for Kevin Ryan's Kersaint represented an unusually
early start in recent seasons for debut wins by a better colt. Perhaps
the mild winter and recent dry and warm spell has moved things forward.
Anyway, that brings us to the Folkestone race on Friday which has six runners,
3 each of newcomers and STO runners. This is one of those races that has
'Ticking Bomb' stencilled on it.
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The three with previous runs are likely to make up the first three in the
betting but none of them achieved a right lot on debut. The estimate of
52 given to Geoffdaw's first run
is almost certainly too high and the subsequent defeats of the horses who
finished around him suggest that was a moderate event. He was giving weight
away all round but made ponderous progress after halfway and didn't look
a certain future winner. His trainer's better types in 2006 either won
FTO or got involved in the race. Perhap's he taking it more quietly in
2007? But then his Artdeal was given an aggressive ride on debut and led
before finishing clear in second. So, he may well be favourite but Geoffdaw
is changing surfaces from slow sand to firm turf and less than bombproof.
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Non Sucre has been discussed here before and on paddock review looks a
solid type although typically fiery on debut as the trainer's 2yos tend
to be. This meant that he battled for the lead on debut but faded pretty
tamely by just after two furlongs out. This, plus his 14/1 SP, is a real
negative given the trainer's record. The way he prepares his 2yos mean
that if they have real ability it shows on debut. He had a winner earlier
this week, in a dreadful seller granted, but with a newcomer. The form
of his 2yos can often dip after their first or second run and then recover
after a break in later season.
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If we look at at Mr Blockley's record since he got his licence back in
2003 here's how his non-selling level 2yos winners have fared on
debut :-
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2003 = Red Power 1st at 25/1; Misaro 3rd at 40/1 (in a field of 3 but his
win was actually selling performance level)
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2004 = Windy Prospect 3rd at 4/1; Oh Dara 1st at 100/30 (strong support);
Profit's Reality (7th at 8/1 and the one example of a development 2yo but
66/1 on his second outing and clearly thought to be limited at that stage)
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2005 = Overstayed 1st at 12/1, Come Out Fighting 3rd at 7/1
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2006 = Baby Strange 1st at 8/1 (Market support); Wait Watcher 2nd at 9/2;
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Which doesn't suggest Mr Blockley is a Richard Hannon style 'nice intro'
merchant. In line with his charges let-me-at-them attitude on debut they
are ready to show you what they have. Which is a long way of saying that
though he's an ok physical type he's unlikely to win and it wouldn't be
a surprise to see him drift in the market.
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Rio Taffeta looked a small but ready type at Kempton in a race run at a
below average pace. He lost a length at the start and had dropped to be
5 lengths back in seventh at halfway. Despite this being on a sharp bend
his jockey decided this was the time to bustle him to make ground 5 lanes
wide. He then got unbalanced as they straightened into the finish and had
to be settled. He plugged on well enough to fifth but without looking anything
other than an ordinary early type. Likely to be more knowing and sharper
here but another smaller one vulnerable to a bigger one with ability. Geoffdaw's
probably a similar type and the bigger Non Sucre has the stats to overcome.
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What about the newcomers then? The sales report for Little
Big Boy included the line "Quite size limited, Tiny. Ok build". Which
fits quite nicely with the name he has subsequently been given. That means
he's likely to be another 'nice intro' for the trainer before being targeted
at the right race for the second run win try. (More the 'Micky Thin' end
of the quality range than 'Vienna's Boy' to name two recent Folkestone
debuts for the trainer).
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Amwell House is a Llety Stud
home bred for the sire they stand - Auction House. His trainer does an
ok job in getting 2yo winners with limited material but, while reasonably
competent FTO they usual improve 10-15lbs from it across the season. Trainer
A. Haynes has had a win and a place from 3 debuts to date so we can expect
Midnite Blews to be ready enough.
His dam has produced a useful 5f 2yo winner but at €5,000 sale price
it suggests he's too limited a physical type to improve that record.
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In summary a race where it's quite easy to come to the conclusion that
none of them will win it (in through the front door, a walk round the building
following the directions, find a door marked 'Answer', go through it and
find yourself back out on the street...). If we assume Non Sucre won't
win and none of the newcomers look good then the choice is between Geoffdaw
and Rio Taffeta. Given the '3' next to his name and Jamie Spencer riding
Geoffdaw is likely to be shorter than his form warrants. So the Paddock
Review job is to compare the two to see if Rio Taffeta makes appeal as
a bet at his price.
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The Southwell race is a 'Maiden Auction' which means the fillies carry
weights in line with what they cost at the sales. It is a low quality race
which means even the top weight only cost 16,000 guineas which might sound
quite a lot but is below average in the current strong sales environment.
It is worth noting the bottomweights are owner breds which have been retained
at the sales (i.e. the vendor bid for their own horse against others) for
low amounts. This is common practice for these types and the purpose is
that they make a qualifying sale so that they can run in moderate races
like this one.
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Given the range of prices the bottomweights often have little to recommend
them and will be seller rabbits if the owners are lucky. The higher weights
usually include the, relatively, better physical types who by sheer size
and bulk can overpower the rabbits despite giving them weight. This race,
unlike Folkestone, has quite a nice 'shape' to it and an opposable favourite.
Woodford Regen didn't achieve
enough on debut to believe she can win here and her trainer's 2yos don't
improve much from that first outing.
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Which means a win for a newcomer and the likely favourite is Kevin Ryan's
Well Informed, especially given
his debut win at Leicester. She is by Averti who is fine for producing
early 2yo winners. Her dam is very well related and has produced Bygone
Days who has developed from being a moderate 2yo to a 5yo Group 3 winner
for Godolphin. Lots of ticks in boxes there, why opposable? Her sales review
concluded "Compact, weak legged, one of the smallest seen at the sales".
If we turn our view around then she's a filly by a solid enough sire and
a half sister to a Group 3 winner with lots of other Group winners not
that far back in her pedigree. In those terms she ought to make more than
16,000 guineas just as a breeding prospect.
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In summary, unless something odd has happened she's going to be small and
limited although that means the trainer will be motivated to get an early
win for her. If she can win she'll be worth more than 16,000 to her owner
for breeding purposes. But, off a typical debut preparation for an early
filly of the trainer she's beatable. As outlined above in the Checkout
section we have a runner in Ephesian who ticks more boxes and probably
at a longer price. In an underwhelming field it is also worth noting Fitolini
for another female trainer in Geraldine Rees. She runs her 2yos when they
are ready to compete and if they have ability they show up on debut. This
is a notably early debut for her stable and Fitolini has a solid '5f 2yo'
pedigree for this race. Another which may well finish ahead of Well Informed.
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