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The start to an interesting week when the 2yo racing moves on from the
early sparring with the fields mainly made up of early types with limited
longer term ambitions. The maiden at Windsor on Monday is traditionally
used by a number of the bigger southern stables for above average 2yos.
The trainers represented include most of those you would want to see with
runners and an interesting field. The maidens at Warwick & Nottingham
on Tuesday also have runners from powerful stables who should be average
winners at least. These include two more 'Maktoum' family owner breds from
Mark Johnston (who 0-2 so far with 2yos from this source with both Tazawud
& Timewatch running similar
up-there-early-then-fade-tamely-while hanging-left efforts).
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Wednesday to Saturday see the major "Guineas' Trial" meetings at Newmarket
and Newbury and a range of trainers target some of there best 2yos at the
2yo events on the cards. In the 2006 races at Newmarket we saw four later
Group winners for example with Gilded, Silk Blossom & Excellent Art
winning and Captain Marvelous (won French Group 2) placed behind Excellent
Art. The Craven Meeting at Newmarket has been cut from three to two
days this year which means the Colts maiden has been dropped this year.
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The best 2yos we have seen so far have been Vhujon
& Fat Boy. The first of these
gave a splendid display of front running on firm going at Bath and as soon
as he kicked 3-4 lengths clear after a meandering first furlong he looked
just too good for the others. He looked a lot like another, useful, early
winner by his sire Mujadil called
Masta Plasta. Try looking at these two pictures - Vhujon
& Masta
Plasta - the second picture is moderate quality but the similarities
are there, especially in the head, the ready & neat bodies. When moving
they have also shown similarities by by very balanced in the suspension
phase of the gallop (all four feet off the ground) and the way they reach
out in front on fast ground. Masta Plasta had shown his best form by June
before his form tailed off and the way Vhujon has started it may wel be
the same.
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Each year we seem to see the same thing from his Trainer David Evans. He
has a reputation for having his 2yos very fit and ready for the start of
the season but they give mixed performances and the majority moderate.
When you look back after the season has closed it is often clear that the
reason for the stack of moderate debuts early was rather simple to explain
- they were moderate horses. Then, hidden away in the heap of mediocrity
a good horse like Vhujon wipes out a solid enough looking field - but at
33/1.
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In recent seasons the only obvious 'punt' the stable has had with a 2yo
debut was in 2003 in a Nottingham seller with Under My Spell (1st at 2/1).
That filly was later placed in the Hilary Needler which suggests he wasn't
taking any chances with a punt. Mr Evans doesn't seem a natural optimist
with his horses and can often seem as surprised by a result as others.
Perhaps this attitude leads to the lack of confidence and support for his
runners. After Bazguy had been his early debut winner in 2006 he was quoted
as saying "If that one had got beaten I'd have to shoot the rest, he's
the best I've got".
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Now, surely he knew that Vhujon was good and was quoted afterwards as thinking
about running him in the Norfolk Stakes and how he had thought he was Group
race standard. How many other trainer's horses with that ability would
start at 33/1 despite being very ready to compete? One last play for this
old tune - when the Racing Post summariser etc, says 'The market should
guide' the majority of time it means they have space to fill and nothing
to say. In those situations it is better to say nothing than say something
unfounded at best, and often wrong. The market is a good guide with certain
trainers at certain times of the year and with many trainers it never means
anything.
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Whereas Vhujon gave the best performance we have seen so far this year
Fat Boy didn't have to record a good rating to win a race run at a moderate
pace comfortably. However, his whole profile in terms of pedigree, trainer
methods and paddock review suggest he is an 80 rater (B2yoR figures) in
future at least. He is likely to run in the conditions race at Newmarket
on Wednesday when we shall learn more about his real ability.
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We have seen a number of other solid winners and placed horses without
one that necessarily stands out as better class. That includes Mister Hardy
who has already won two races and looked a thoroughly natural and precocious
2yo but not Listed class or better. Others who have shown solid form include
winners Dubai Princess, Nikindi,
Kersaint & Fred's
Lad along with the placers Silver
Guest and particularly Ten Down.
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Which is the point to change tracks from the general to thinking specifically
about the Windsor maiden. Ten Down will be on his second outing in the
race and takes on 7 newcomers plus the likely limited types with previous
runs in Sauze D'Oulx (probable
seller type) and Higgys Boy. He
made his debut in a Novice race along with debuts runners from Mark Johston
(Tazawud) and Kevin Ryan (Fast Feet) who were both expected to run well.
Ten Down was supported in the market despite the opposition and gave a
likeable performance in the race. Leading after the first furlong by a
neck he continued to duel for the lead with Tazawud and Brassini and was
just a neck back at halfway. The pace that was set saw his two rivals,
along with Fast Feet who had been tracking in fourth after a slightly slow
start, stalling and fading by the final furlong and as he went clear he
looked the certain winner. He then stalled himself late on and got headed
late on by Fred's Lad who had managed to stay close enough to keep on to
pick up the faders.
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It is worth considering that Fred's Lad was just over two lengths behind
Ten Down at halfway and lost a little ground as the race saw the front
runners make the, typically on turf, effort towards the final 2f pole.
An instinctive reaction might be to say well if Fred's Lad was that close
why wasn't he broken by the pace as well? Now some of the reason is that
he's got some ability, of course. But remember that more than 2 lengths
means that he's taken half a second longer to reach halfway than Ten Down.
The difference between, for example, a 12 second furlong and an 11.5 second
one in reaching halfway could mean one horse running within it's cruising
speed and another having to work outside that 'comfort' level and unable
to finish the race off strongly.
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The upshot is that minor improvement from Ten Down would see him recording
a rating in the mid to hugh 60s and set a tough standard for a newcomer.
In another example of how trainers tend to use similar approaches here
is a summery of the result of this race in 2005 :-
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1st : Crocodile Bay (STO, 14/1) = Jamie Osborne, like Ten Down, and
made a less convincing debut
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2nd : Green Park (FTO, 12/1) = Apparent 2nd string of two Hannon Runners,
later won the 5f Conditions event her
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4th : Carmenero (FTO, 40/1) = Willie Muir's first debut runner of
the year and he runs Enodoc.
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5th : Coburn (FTO, 10/3f) = Early debut for Brian Meehan, non-winners but
good placer. Trainer runs Regal Rhythm.
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6th : Green Pride (FTO, 4/1) = Apparent Hannon 1st string ahead of Green
Park, ok winner but slightly less ability than that one.
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8th : Lava Flow (FTO, 12/1) = Early debut for Michael Bell who has his
first runner with Red Expresso.
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In that race on good to soft a group of 5, including Coburn and Green Pride,
went to the far rail and then back to the stands' side and finished a little
further back than they should. On the firmer ground tomorrow, although
Windsor do like to overdo the watering, the field should follow the traditional
stands' side route which often favours stands' rail runners. As a general
rule at Windsor the bigger the field and the firmer the going the more
this bias shows up. Tomorrow they will be racing on the far side of the
divided chute from the 5f start to the course intersection which means
less of a right-hand bend to negotiate over the 5f which can mean less
bias. In a field of 10 with mixed ability and experience you would expect
Ten Down to be able to get to the rail unless Sauze D'Oulx can hold him
off for a time.
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So, a strong case for Ten Down and he isn't likely to show the inexperience
and floundering that saw Silver Guest beaten by newcomer last week. We
do have some strongish profiles in the longer term amongst the newcomers.
Around the middle of April (13th-22nd recently) Mick Channon tends to debut
a better 2yo or two and they can win on debut. In 2005 it was Flashy Wings
(1st, 5/4f at Newmarket) and BA Foxtrot (1st, 16/1 at Leicester) and last
year La Neige (1st, 11/4 t Nottingham). Barraland
was an expensive puchase as a yearling given the recent record of the dam
which suggests a better type. Mr Channon has debuted a whole mix of types
at Windsor and there is no sign he targets better horses here. Overal,
he seems likely to be a solid winner but not good enough to beat Ten Down
first time. On this occasion stronger support for him at less that 9/2
would clearly be an indicator he is better than just 'solid'.
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Richard Hannon runs two and Higgys Boy showed next to nothing on debut
when he was 11/2 in an open race with a 9/2 favourite - the market not
telling us anything there. Ok, he lost four lengths at the start and didn't
look that sharp but nothing happened when his jockey asked him to
make an effort. Horses of limited ability like Alfredtheordinary, Ocean
Transit & Blue Zenith where arounf him at halfway and showed more response.
Jamie Osborne's Group Therapy was behind him and managed to get to sixth
and keeping on. Richard Hughes has got off him at the first opportunity
and rides Cracking instead.
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Recently the first three debuts by the trainer each year have been two
solid 2yos (some Group class) plus one duff one and Higgys Boy might be
it. Mr Hannon has used this race to run all sorts in from Listed class
Rockets 'N Rollers, good winners like Green Park and some lesser types
including 2006's first-three-duff-one with Chip Leader. The trainer normally
only gets debuts wins with his best 2yos early on and he had his second
one with Cake (also by Acclamation like Cracking) on Saturday following
Fat Boy's win. Both started favourite when the other debuts have been less
obviously 'liked'. From a wide draw in one Cracking would have to be pretty
good to win this one debut (much stronger than Cake's opponents overall)
and the profile looks more like an ordinary winner.
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Trainer Brian Meehan has his first runner of the season after a non-runner
on Saturday and at a typical time of the year. In a typical yesr he will
have around a dozen 2yo runners from this time until the end of the year.
The majority of these will be winners during the season although some will
be obviously claimer level types or below. Mr Meehan has an lower FTO win
strike rate than most other major trainers and below average between 4-5%
in some seasons. Remember that Mark Johnston goes around 14% over a season,
Hannon 10%, Channon 9% and Barry Hills 8% and Meehan comes in around 6%
(close to the average for all trainers).
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Mr Meehan's current soft approach with debuts mean that, normally, only
the very best win on debut and a win first time a pretty sure indication
of a Listed or Group class performer. He also has a marked tendency to
run his best types at Newmarket and Newbury on debut and often shows his
best early 2yos at the Craven meeting later in the week. Overall Regal
Rhythm is likely to run a 'nice enough' race in 4th-6th without being high
enough class to win.
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To enhance the field further we have the first 2yo runner of the season
for the very reliable 2yo trainer Michael Bell. After a moderate set of
results in 2005 which seemed to be linked to a moderate group of horses
he bounced back in 2006 to record a more usual season and showing his usual
traits. In a normal season he gets around 7-8% debut wins and as with the
other trainers in the field they come at definable times in the year. He
has said himself that he likes to have an early debut winner because it
confirms to him that he has firstly some quality and secondly he has them
prepared enough. He then gets odd wins later in the season for his best
2yos, usually over 7f+ like Motivator in his season and Furnace last year.
In his poor 2005 year he had no debut winner and a sure indicator he lacked
quality (one of the primary reason behind debut wins).
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Here, he runs Red Expresso who
is an expensive son of Intikhab just like Hoh Mike who ran second on his
Windsor debut in April last year but beaten by the even more precocious
Elhamri. We can be certain that he is at least an average later maiden
winner and he's likely to place here if a little better than that.
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In summary a race with plenty of potential amongst the newcomers and the
best of Red Expresso, Barraland and Cracking should make up the places
with Ten Down. Really strong support for any of these would be significant
but this doesn't mean nibbling around the 5/1 to 8/1 range. It means 3/1
and below and the general hype and impression that this thing has got six
gears and overdrive. Without that Ten Down's 65-8 rating would be enough.
For example, Mr Hannon had 7 (out of 100) debuts rated 65+ in 2006, Meehan
had 6 (of 70), Channon 4 and none higher than 66, and finally Michael Bell
3 (with 67 the highest) which demonstrates how a competent 65 rated run
here by Ten Down would put the pressure on the newcomers.
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The field will be paddock reviewed and summarised for future relevance
in one of the previews later this week.
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