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Two races on Tuesday with debut runners from a range of major stables and
only one of the total of 16 horses with a previous outing. That is Fast
Feet who runs at Nottingham and finished behind Ten Down at the same
course FTO. That runner failed to win on his second outing at Windsor on
Monday but was beaten by the other runner with solid form. In that race
debut runners from Hannon, Channon, Meehan, Michael Bell and Willie Muir
all gave good illustrations of how not being mentally and physically can
lead to lesser performances. Those runners finished in a heap in the 3rd
to 8th places behind the two with experience although the best physical
type (Red Expresso) ran well to get to 3rd. More thoughts on the Windsor
field and race at the bottom of this preview.
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If we leave Fast Feet to one side for a moment, and he's likely to be a
shortish priced favourite, the races at Warwick and Nottingham feel like
that midfield group at Windsor today. Some reasonable potential but none
likely to be really tuned for debut and a lowish rating required to come
out best on the day. As highlighted in the Checkouts above preference in
the Warwick race would be for Piece Of My Heart & Ephesian at Warwick.
The shape of the Nottingham race depends on how good Fast Feet is and how
much you forgive a rather tame finish at Nottingham. At the time that seemed
like a typical early debut for Kevin
Ryan but he has since had two FTO winners to put a minor doubt in your
mind.
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However, opposing Mr Ryan over the last two seasons has not been a comfortable
position for the most part so we should assume that Fast Feet will be much
more complete today and set a stiff target for the newcomers. The best
of those on profile are Irving Place
& Grand Fleet. The first
runs for Michael Bell whose first runner of the year with Red Expresso
showed inexperience at Windsor and was last at halfway (more than 10 lengths
off the leader) and driven along. Switched to the centre of the course
he made good progress to third late on and still going forward. It's likely
that Red Expresso was the best horse at Windsor when we look back at season
end but his final placing and indication of what lack of sharpness does
FTO. Irving Place has a similar profile to that one and ought to be an
average quality 2yo winner but would need to find Fast Feet below expected
to win.
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Grand Fleet's trainer Mark Johnston has made a slow start to date and perhaps
partly because of the moderate performance of his first runner in the Fast
Feet race here. He runs two today at the two courses and as with his previous
two runners they are both Maktoum owner breds in some form, we haven't
seen any of his sales puchased natural 2yos yet. Grand Fleet has a lop-side
pedigree with the headline of being a half-brother to Group winning 2yo
Lend A Hand (for the same trainer). The dam and her other winning produce
have been more staying and development types. He's by sire Green
Desert who isn't renowned for early 5f winners unless they are very
high quality horses (like Holborn in 2003). His record is better at 6-7f
and after June and this fits with the way his best types develop their
muscular physique through the season.
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One point to consider is that his better after-June record is an artefact
of his being a major sire with lots of 2yos trained by powerful stables
for important owners. These combinations (consider the Dunlops for example)
tend to only get their 2yos going after June. Holborn ran for Sheikh Mohammed
but trained by Mick Channon who doesn't bend to the traditional rules and
runs all sorts over 5f if he thinks they are ready. Mr Johnston is of a
similar type. In summary an interesting profile but he is likely to have
to be Group class to win on debut here.
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A brief summary of yesterday's race at Warwick. After the Paddock Review
the B2yoR summary was :-
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Ten Down a real disappointment. Notably small although a complete and ready
type, one who is going to show his best form now and then tail off. Added
to this he was immature and skittish and not the professional expected
given his competent debut. Although not negatives individually he was unsheathed
at times and developed a light, nervous sweat which taken with his overall
demeanour added up to a negative review.
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With the favourite one to consider opposing what about the newcomers? Not
a particularly taking group overall with Red Expresso the best type but
not high enough quality ot suggest a debut win for his trainer.
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Sauze D'Oulx had looked small in the field at Folkestone alongside Silver
Guest, Nikindi & Non Sucre. Here he didn't and a similar size to Ten
Down although less well made and less quality.
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Which in hindsight is a good template for the race - the newcomers weren't
good/ready enough to overcome those with experience and with a much better
path through the race Sauze D'Oulx was able to hold off Ten Down. Which
brings us to the point of who we should blame for Ten Down's tortuous path
taken during the race - the horse or the Jockey? Given the paddock review
the horse probably wasn't as focussed on the race as he was at Nottingham
but the jockey has to take a lot of the blame.
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Jamie Spencer has already been beaten on two odd-ons 2yos (Silver Guest
was the other) and in both cases he has let them get well behind in their
races before expecting them to cruise through and win despite having to
switch to the centre of the track away from favoured rails. In the case
of Silver Guest it was the first time he had ridden him and the horse got
unbalanced on the ground and generally didn't help him. You have to wonder
with Ten Down whether he was caught out by the horse being less forward
going and focussed. After a solid break he got shuffled back (along with
Barraland who managed to stay closer to the pace) as the field came together
but Mr Spencer just let him drift back to be more than 10 lengths behind
at halfway. He made good progrees to be around a length behind Sauze D'Oulx
towards the final furlong but had to switch around the field to do it.
The effort meant he could just plug on and not overhaul the leader who
had a soft lead on the rail and a perfect 'Windsor' trip on firmer going.
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In 5f races with 2yos B2yoR often finds itself wishing Jamie Spencer would
produce a few more aggressive rides and make the horse's mind up for it
early in the race. Go on Jamie, pretend you are on Powerscourt in the back
straight of the Breeders' Cup Turf occasionally when on a 2yo. Anyway,
with a better path through the race Ten Down could have won and Sauze D'Oulx
has won his 'little race' and outside seller level but is going to struggle
in Novice races under his penalty. Below is a short summary of some of
the runners - the links from the name go to the best picture on the day.
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TEN DOWN -
Small, very neatly made, just average build. A 'now' 2yo and not a lot
of future potential.
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BARRALAND
- Bigger, although short-legged & lengthier type of his sire but not
abviously 5f type. Has the build to develop through the season and rate
around 70 (B2yoR rating level). Notably sloppy and immature attitude and
in context a solid run in the race.
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CRACKING
- The two Hannon runners came in together without their numbers but recognisable
by the tack. B2yoR was expecting Higgys Boy to be the lesser of the two
given his duff debut, second jockey and 33/1 SP here. Which meant they
they got switched around in the notes until the numbers went on because
Cracking is the smaller and less taking of the two. Just an ordinary winner
type and crossed off as a possible winner on the day. As an aside Jamie
Spencer could learn a bit from Richard Hughes who is not 'Mr All-Action'
after all. But he can organise a 2yo to get on with it when he is motivated
to. With both of Hannon's debut winners this season he has got them out
and close up in third and he rifled Cracking out from his wide draw here
and got across to lay up with Sauze D'Oulx early (if only Mr Spencer had
done the same). The fact that he pressed on with Cracking here is probably
a good sign because it meant he wanting to see what he was capable of in
the same way he has got those debut winners involved.
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ENODOC - Medium
sized and neat, powerful behind and an athletic mover. Ought to be 70+
winner but will may need several runs to win by trainer standards. After
Red Expresso probably the second choice in long term interest.
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HIGGYS BOY
- A positive surprise. Ok size and build and attitude, much bigger than
Cracking. Presumably has a 'hole' in him somewhere because he looks ok
and his midfield finish a sign that he's not a lost cause and might blunder
into a minor win somewhere, perhaps on the AW.
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NEVER SOLD
OUT - All together now - "Aaahh, isn't he cute". Tiny, neat and young.
Limited by his size and no interest.
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RED EXPRESSO
- "I know", said Michael, "we had good success with one expensive, deep
chested, heavily built son of Intikhab (Hoh
Mike) so let's go and buy another". And they did and here he is. Not
as strong behind but the best type in this field. Ought to rate 75+.
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REGAL RHYTHM
- Sales price decreased from foal to yearling and on the evidence here
probably because he developed to be taller, leggy and narrow and light
behind. On the plus side an ok size and good maturity but should need further
than 5f and probably limited to mid-60s rating at best.
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