British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Preview - April 17th 
Today's Races
  • [19] : Nottingham 2:20, 5.1f Maiden (5)
  • [20] : Warwick 2:30, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)

  • Checkout
    Trainer :
  • Anne Duffield has improved her record with 2yos notably in the last three years. Before 2004 she had not had a winner although her runners were always competent on debut and showed up if they had any ability. They would then run consistently to a similar level but without winning. Although the 2yos were of lower ability the lack of creativity with race choice & targeting seemed to be part of the problem.
  • With slightly better quality in 2005-6 her record has improved to nearly 45% winners to runners and an above average strike rate. The 2yos have still not been expensive with most in the 5,000 to 15,000 guineas range. Her winner to runner record with the 2yos in this range is over 50%.
  • The debut readiness has remained the same with a FTO success in each of 2005-6 and 50% of the later winners have made the first 3 on debut and all but one the first 6. Added to that the earliest debuts in 2005-6 have been competitive 2yos with an overall 9-1 record of Winnners to Non-Winners with the first 5 debuts in each year.
  • She runs Ephesian at Warwick after that horse was a non-runner in a weaker race at Southwell last Friday when she would only have had Well Informed to beat. Although with more potential in the field the debut readiness of her trainer's runners should enable her to compete well here. She runs two colts at Nottingham and in a stronger race Rye Beau did not look good enough quality at the sales to compete. Her other runner - Dawn Light - was more expensively purchased but is apprentice ridden and may be the better prospect to place at longer odds.
  • BJ Meehan had his first 2yo runner yesterday with a typically midfield outcome for a trainer who does not target debut wins. His few debut winners each season are usually made up of his very best 5-6f 2yos in the May-July period and then odd late season wins (often in October at Newbury). His best 2yos have recently been targeted at debuts at Newmarket or Newbury. Both his runners at Warwick were entered for the fillies' maiden at Newmarket on Thursday (which he won in 2004 with Siena Gold) but run here and his other entry for that race is Alexander Nepotism. In that context Andrasta & Carolina Blini debuting at Warwick suggests average types unlikely to win FTO. Both are daughters of Bertolini as were Donna Blini (debut winner at Newmarket and later Group 1 winner) and Nina Blini (midfield debut at Windsor, around average ability despite the misleading 'Queen Mary third' tag) for the combination of trainer and Carolina Blini's owner.
  • Paddock Review :
  • Four of the fillies in the Warwick race were reviewed at the sales with Piece Of My Heart rating highest and looking a solid & ready 2yo. Her trainer is well capable of getting debut winners although with lesser quality in recent seasons (as he has often bemoaned in interviews) he 'hits the bar' much more often with FTO places which he often struggles to convert to later wins. In a race of newcomers in which none has an outstanding profile she may compete with Ephesian for the win.
  • Ratings :
    Other :


      April 17th Summary : 
     
    • Two races on Tuesday with debut runners from a range of major stables and only one of the total of 16 horses with a previous outing. That is Fast Feet who runs at Nottingham and finished behind Ten Down at the same course FTO. That runner failed to win on his second outing at Windsor on Monday but was beaten by the other runner with solid form. In that race debut runners from Hannon, Channon, Meehan, Michael Bell and Willie Muir all gave good illustrations of how not being mentally and physically can lead to lesser performances. Those runners finished in a heap in the 3rd to 8th places behind the two with experience although the best physical type (Red Expresso) ran well to get to 3rd. More thoughts on the Windsor field and race at the bottom of this preview.
    • If we leave Fast Feet to one side for a moment, and he's likely to be a shortish priced favourite, the races at Warwick and Nottingham feel like that midfield group at Windsor today. Some reasonable potential but none likely to be really tuned for debut and a lowish rating required to come out best on the day. As highlighted in the Checkouts above preference in the Warwick race would be for Piece Of My Heart & Ephesian at Warwick. The shape of the Nottingham race depends on how good Fast Feet is and how much you forgive a rather tame finish at Nottingham. At the time that seemed like a typical early debut for Kevin Ryan but he has since had two FTO winners to put a minor doubt in your mind.
    • However, opposing Mr Ryan over the last two seasons has not been a comfortable position for the most part so we should assume that Fast Feet will be much more complete today and set a stiff target for the newcomers. The best of those on profile are Irving Place & Grand Fleet. The first runs for Michael Bell whose first runner of the year with Red Expresso showed inexperience at Windsor and was last at halfway (more than 10 lengths off the leader) and driven along. Switched to the centre of the course he made good progress to third late on and still going forward. It's likely that Red Expresso was the best horse at Windsor when we look back at season end but his final placing and indication of what lack of sharpness does FTO. Irving Place has a similar profile to that one and ought to be an average quality 2yo winner but would need to find Fast Feet below expected to win.
    • Grand Fleet's trainer Mark Johnston has made a slow start to date and perhaps partly because of the moderate performance of his first runner in the Fast Feet race here. He runs two today at the two courses and as with his previous two runners they are both Maktoum owner breds in some form, we haven't seen any of his sales puchased natural 2yos yet. Grand Fleet has a lop-side pedigree with the headline of being a half-brother to Group winning 2yo Lend A Hand (for the same trainer). The dam and her other winning produce have been more staying and development types. He's by sire Green Desert who isn't renowned for early 5f winners unless they are very high quality horses (like Holborn in 2003). His record is better at 6-7f and after June and this fits with the way his best types develop their muscular physique through the season. 
    • One point to consider is that his better after-June record is an artefact of his being a major sire with lots of 2yos trained by powerful stables for important owners. These combinations (consider the Dunlops for example) tend to only get their 2yos going after June. Holborn ran for Sheikh Mohammed but trained by Mick Channon who doesn't bend to the traditional rules and runs all sorts over 5f if he thinks they are ready. Mr Johnston is of a similar type. In summary an interesting profile but he is likely to have to be Group class to win on debut here.
    • A brief summary of yesterday's race at Warwick. After the Paddock Review the B2yoR summary was :-
      • Ten Down a real disappointment. Notably small although a complete and ready type, one who is going to show his best form now and then tail off. Added to this he was immature and skittish and not the professional expected given his competent debut. Although not negatives individually he was unsheathed at times and developed a light, nervous sweat which taken with his overall demeanour added up to a negative review.
      • With the favourite one to consider opposing what about the newcomers? Not a particularly taking group overall with Red Expresso the best type but not high enough quality ot suggest a debut win for his trainer.
      • Sauze D'Oulx had looked small in the field at Folkestone alongside Silver Guest, Nikindi & Non Sucre. Here he didn't and a similar size to Ten Down although less well made and less quality.
    • Which in hindsight is a good template for the race - the newcomers weren't good/ready enough to overcome those with experience and with a much better path through the race Sauze D'Oulx was able to hold off Ten Down. Which brings us to the point of who we should blame for Ten Down's tortuous path taken during the race - the horse or the Jockey? Given the paddock review the horse probably wasn't as focussed on the race as he was at Nottingham but the jockey has to take a lot of the blame. 
    • Jamie Spencer has already been beaten on two odd-ons 2yos (Silver Guest was the other) and in both cases he has let them get well behind in their races before expecting them to cruise through and win despite having to switch to the centre of the track away from favoured rails. In the case of Silver Guest it was the first time he had ridden him and the horse got unbalanced on the ground and generally didn't help him. You have to wonder with Ten Down whether he was caught out by the horse being less forward going and focussed. After a solid break he got shuffled back (along with Barraland who managed to stay closer to the pace) as the field came together but Mr Spencer just let him drift back to be more than 10 lengths behind at halfway. He made good progrees to be around a length behind Sauze D'Oulx towards the final furlong but had to switch around the field to do it. The effort meant he could just plug on and not overhaul the leader who had a soft lead on the rail and a perfect 'Windsor' trip on firmer going.
    • In 5f races with 2yos B2yoR often finds itself wishing Jamie Spencer would produce a few more aggressive rides and make the horse's mind up for it early in the race. Go on Jamie, pretend you are on Powerscourt in the back straight of the Breeders' Cup Turf occasionally when on a 2yo. Anyway, with a better path through the race Ten Down could have won and Sauze D'Oulx has won his 'little race' and outside seller level but is going to struggle in Novice races under his penalty. Below is a short summary of some of the runners - the links from the name go to the best picture on the day.
    • TEN DOWN - Small, very neatly made, just average build. A 'now' 2yo and not a lot of future potential.
    • BARRALAND - Bigger, although short-legged & lengthier type of his sire but not abviously 5f type. Has the build to develop through the season and rate around 70 (B2yoR rating level). Notably sloppy and immature attitude and in context a solid run in the race.
    • CRACKING - The two Hannon runners came in together without their numbers but recognisable by the tack. B2yoR was expecting Higgys Boy to be the lesser of the two given his duff debut, second jockey and 33/1 SP here. Which meant they they got switched around in the notes until the numbers went on because Cracking is the smaller and less taking of the two. Just an ordinary winner type and crossed off as a possible winner on the day. As an aside Jamie Spencer could learn a bit from Richard Hughes who is not 'Mr All-Action' after all. But he can organise a 2yo to get on with it when he is motivated to. With both of Hannon's debut winners this season he has got them out and close up in third and he rifled Cracking out from his wide draw here and got across to lay up with Sauze D'Oulx early (if only Mr Spencer had done the same). The fact that he pressed on with Cracking here is probably a good sign because it meant he wanting to see what he was capable of in the same way he has got those debut winners involved.
    • ENODOC - Medium sized and neat, powerful behind and an athletic mover. Ought to be 70+ winner but will may need several runs to win by trainer standards. After Red Expresso probably the second choice in long term interest.
    • HIGGYS BOY - A positive surprise. Ok size and build and attitude, much bigger than Cracking. Presumably has a 'hole' in him somewhere because he looks ok and his midfield finish a sign that he's not a lost cause and might blunder into a minor win somewhere, perhaps on the AW.
    • NEVER SOLD OUT - All together now - "Aaahh, isn't he cute". Tiny, neat and young. Limited by his size and no interest.
    • RED EXPRESSO - "I know", said Michael, "we had good success with one expensive, deep chested, heavily built son of Intikhab (Hoh Mike) so let's go and buy another". And they did and here he is. Not as strong behind but the best type in this field. Ought to rate 75+.
    • REGAL RHYTHM - Sales price decreased from foal to yearling and on the evidence here probably because he developed to be taller, leggy and narrow and light behind. On the plus side an ok size and good maturity but should need further than 5f and probably limited to mid-60s rating at best.
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