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Limited time for Previews over the next couple of days because of the sales
at Newmarket. It is worth though quickly recapping on the B2yoR approach
and the way the 'Profiles' are produced. Before each 2yo race a rating
is produced for each runner based on previous form (if any), paddock and/or
sales review where available, trainer methods and simple pedigree hints.
This produces a 'Race Profile' of what to expect for the event and in paddock
review. Part of the Profile will be to note any particular angles to note
on the day - for example trainers that target early debut wins, or in particular
races, highly rated sales reports, runners with positive physical reviews
who have shown form below that standard, etc.
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On-course it is possible then relatively easy to review each horse against
expectations to amend the model for what to expect on the day and to finalise
the betting options. The review will also highlight future prospects for
each runner. The Race Profile can also be used after the race to identify
horses which exceeded or failed to meet expectations and reasons to be
assigned. This, along with the paddock information also enables the race
result rating to be placed in accordance with what performance a field
of that quality could be expected to produce (with the race time also considered).
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These Previews are a summary of the approach given that producing the Race
Profiles, attending the races, and analysing the results is time consuming
and putting that into a readable format an add-on. They currently are,
hopefully, a useful introduction to the 2yo scene and surroundig issues
and factors. The next stage will be to add the ability to see a summary
of the Paddock Notes on-the-day before the race - but let's leave that
until the season is up and running (...Despair? No it's not the Despair,
I can live with the Despair..... it's the Hope I can't stand.).
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Newmarket's conditions race then and let's think about the shape of it.
We have two solid benchmarks in the race with the previous winners Nikindi
(penalised 5lbs) and Baytown Blaze (unpenalised for a Class 6 win). These
are different quality of athletes and while her fitness and precocity will
help her keep close to the others she ought not to get closer than 4th
in this field (while rating around 45). Nikindi ought to be able to improve
to a rating in the 64-68 range here ad he carries the top-weight so that
sets the standard.
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If we then take the best of the newcomers we have Brian Meehan's Major
Eazy, Neville Callaghan's Orpen's
Art & Dark Angel for Barry
Hills. Because we have reliable figures (not guesses based on 'Race Standardisation'
and ignoring race time) for debut runs the likely level of an 'avergae'
debut by the trainer can be set. This figured can then be varied depending
upon what the quality of the runner is, trainer's approach to debuts in
the current season, whether the trainer targets races at the course, sales
reviews, etc. For example Mr Callaghan won the maiden on this card (now
removed) last year with the high class Excellent Art who rated 67 for a
comfortable win. If his runner here is of similar quality then he could
compete with Nikindi off level weights by natural ability (so long as he
was mentally sharp enough) and in receipt of 9lbs (Nikindi's penalty plus
his 3lb allowance for being a newcomer)would leave him well behind.
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The Profile ratings are then an estimation of how close to Nikindi these
three would get on known factors and if the paddock review shows Major
Eazy, for example, to be a terrific type and backed up by a rare stable
punt then the choice would be easy. It is all not always clear cut though.
Consider the following list of debut winners for the three trainers before
the end of May since 2002 :-
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Barry Hills = La Cucaracha (2003), Don't Tell Mum (2005) & Silk Blossom
(2006), which is two later Group winners plus an 'accident' in a soft race
at Newbury with a slow pace.
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Brian Meehan = Cape Fear (2003), Siena Gold (2004, Craven Meeting), Donna
Blini (2005, Guineas meeting), which is a Group 1 2yo, a Supersprint winner
and a 100+ rater who won the Doncaster St Leger £200,000 sales race.
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Neville Callaghan = Mazepa (2002 on April 1st and won this Conditions race
STO), Barbajuan, Excellent Art (Craven Meeting), one very precocious 2yo
from a dam who specialised in them and two later 2yo Group winners.
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The message you should get from the above is that these trainers get early
season debut wins almost exclusively with high class 2yos. If their representatives
today are just average types or even moving up to useful they aren't going
to beat Nikindi if he's rating mid-60s. It's that extra class which allows
the best to overcome even solid opponents FTO. On profile Dark Angel comes
up short of the required quality on sales report although he should know
his job reasonably well. Orpen's Art comes from the connections that brought
us Excellent Art last year and the market told us he was good. On balance
he's unlikely to be another top-notcher and the paddock plus the market
will clarify. Before the race Major Eazy appeals as a possible high-class
type that can win on debut. If the trainer has good class and precocious
2yo he runs them at this meeting so if Major Eazy doen't run well the trainer
probably hasn't got a good speed colt yet. Which is where the pondering
stops until we've seen them at Newmarket.
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The Beverley race used to get split into two Divisions and both were pretty
ropey quality but with the move to class 5 they are a little better now.
The single race this year with 17 runners means that the draw plus experience
are likely to play a big part unless a 'pace war' breaks the race up. Artdeal
looked better quality than the average winner of this race at Kempton and
has a lot of other positives with draw 15, trainer's already had a STO
winners, etc. Runswick Bay should press for the lead from his high draw
but his trainer's 2yos rarely develop from debut and he looks short of
Artdeal's mark. Of interest in the race are Karl Burke's first 2yo runner
with Keeparry Appy and the
trainer's good record with 2yos means his performance will be informative;
along with Taurian & Tagula King for future prospects.
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The paddock review for the fillies' maiden at Warwick on Tuesday showed
them to be a poor to moderate bunch. Of the 8 only Ramatni
would qualify for a future 'Of Interest' note. The time for the race was
predictably poor given the quality on show and a race of limited significance.
In summary :-
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Piece Of
My Heart - joint biggest frame with Ramatni but has gone light, leggy
and narrow in the way that many Fasliyev's do. Lacks power and will struggle
now and getting the early win in this limited race is a good result for
her owner breeder.
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Ramatni - best type in the group, solid build and length to go with her
size. Not as fit nor as sharp as Piece Of My Heart but more scope to improve.
Ought to rate 65+.
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Shamrock
Lady - Small, leggy and limited. Early auction win a highlight and
probably more seller class.
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Andrasta
- Slightly taller of the two Meehan fillies build lightly built and weak.
Limited scope and not one to follow.
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Carolina
Blini - Smaller than Andrasta but a little better built but weak below
and lacking quality. Similar limitations and probably 50s rater at best.
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New Minerton
- also small and limited.
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Ephesian
- Put up in the Preview as a possible longer priced strong competitor but
a good example of how paddock review can clarify matters. Made less as
a yearling than a foal and if that is for a technicality such as being
a 'Box walker' then it may not be a problem because a young horse can grow
out of it or it may not hamper them anyway. She doesn't appear to have
grown much from a foal and close to the smallest in the group. Fit and
well prepared as the trainer's 2yos normally are but just too small.
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Leading Edge
- Oh dear, if you have spent 23,000 guineas on one you don't want them
to end up looking like this. Samml, very narrow, very light behind and
just a poor type. Impression not helped by a winter coat and a 'dirty'
grey colouring.
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