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Well, at least Artdeal managed to hang on at Beverley yesterday having
gone clear but stalling close home. He just foiled a 40/1 to 14/1 punt
on the Patrick Haslam trained Mission
Impossible. After years of not taking 2yo racing that seriously he
had a few more in 2002 thanks to an owner who bought a few with his Foot-and-Mouth
payoff. He then had his first debut winer since the early nineties when
older Group winner Kinnaird won at Hamilton. His horses have to be very
good and natural to win first time and suggests that Mission Impossible
should improve greatly for that run.
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Mr Haslam having his third debut winner in more than a decade wouldn't
have been easy to find on profile and the Newmarket Conditions race produced
another surprise with Julia Fielden supplying an impressive debut winner
with Spirit Of Sharjah ahead
of more expensive colts from more vaunted yards. We are 22 races
into a 1,000 race season and let's hope the results show a bit more of
the normal patterns soon.
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Some thoughts on the paddock review for that race at the end of this preview
and first an overview of the fillies' maiden at Newmarket. Given the relative
'chaos' with debut winners so far this season a win for Affirmatively
might seem on the cards. She was retined cheaply at the sales and runs
here because she's own by Wyck Hall Stud who sponsor the race. Her trainer
actually has a good FTO record but he doesn;t get his 2yos going until
the August normally and has only had three 2yos wins in the period 2002-6
before July (all in June 2002) and only 5 in total before August in the
same time. We ought to be able to scratch her off, and will, but just a
little nervously.
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The last five winners of the race show how it is used by a range of bigger
stables for their best early types and also how it usually has longer term
significance:-
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2002 - Wunders Dream (J Given) on second run, later winner at Group
2 and 3 level over 5f
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2003 - Vermilliann (R Hannon) debut winner in small field beating Barry
Hills and Brian Meehan debut runners, Won at Conditions level and second
favourite for the Queen Mary before withdrawn before the race.
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2004 - Siena Gold (B Meehan) very precocious 2yo who won by a clear margin
and proved below Group level (8th in the Queen Mary at 13/2) but won the
Supersprint over 5f.
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2005 - Flashy Wings (M Channon) arrived with a big reputation and short
priced favourite. Won the Queen Mary and the Lowther.
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2006 - Silk Blossom (B Hills), 7/1 on the day as, unlike Channon with Flashy
Wings, the stable's better types don't tend to get supported int he same
way. Group 2 winner over 6f in the Lowther.
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The trainers of the last four winners are a perfect demonstration of how
this type of quality maiden 'works'. If there is a strong STO runner they
will be able to beat anything but a very high class debut 2yo and if there
isn't then this set of important 2yo stables will probably provide the
winner with a Group class horse even though they aren't tuned for the day.
Today's event is absolutely typical in that sense. The first question to
answer is what do you think of Eager
Diva who plays the role of 'STO runner from good Northern Stable. When
Wunders Dream won in 2002 she had finished second, beaten a short-head,
to another 'job' horse in Mazepa with the pair 9 lengths clear of the third
(who rated 88 by season end) on debut. Eager Diva got outpaced at Musselburgh
against lesser opponents and dropped back to midfield before plugging on
past faders to find heself in a well beaten second. You have to trust Mr
Ryan's judgement in bringing her to this race and that she will improve
but her base level suggests the better newcomers ought to be able to match
her.
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The debutantes, aside from the interesting pair of Crying Aloud and Sharp
Catch (covered above) for trainers who rarely venture to Newmarket, are
exactly what you would expect. Six fillies for the previous four, most
recent, winning trainers and enough in their profiles to suggest they are
all average winners at least and the job to identify the those likely to
be the best and possibly win today.
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Three were seen at the sales and Romany Princess stood out as better class
compared to Quick Sands and Alexander
Nepotism. Mr Meehan entered three for this race which he targets with
a better and/or precocious filly. As well as Siena Gold's win he had Abbielou
(just an average winner) placed behind Flashy Wings and the later 7f Listed
winner Sister Bluebird well beaten in 2002. The pair of fillies he scratched
from this race both ran at Warwick on Tuesday and looked pretty limited
and couldn' make the first three in that moderate affair. Being better
than them would only need Alexander Nepotism to be average and not the
Group Class filly she would need to be to win.
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Mick Channon runs Missit for Tim
Corby who has been making names by adding '-it' to words (sometimes misspelt)
for some time. This is getting a bit tedious and also advertises the fact
that you gave up on, and sold, horses who develop to be better for someone
else - B2yoR hears that Katchit has made a little bit of a name for himself
avoiding obstacles in races. On the positive side he did well with Checkit
who finished second on debut here in the Guineas meeting maiden. That runner
later blagged the Group 2 juvenile race in Germany that the trainer identified
early on as a soft target for 2yos just below Group Class here. On profile
Missit looks more average winner than 'Flashy Wings' but on this occasions
the right vibes and a 2/1, or less, SP would count as the 'market speaking'.
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Which means that the preferred of tose is Romany Princess and she ought
to be able to match Eager Diva if she has developed acceptably from the
sales. The other source of the possible debut winner is Barry Hills who
has his string so well forward this year that the best of his pair - Spinning
Lucy & Mookhlesa -
should go close today. As well as Silk Blossom's win last year (with Frisky
Talk in midfield having led) he had the runner-up in 2003 with a useful
maiden winner type and the 5th in 2002 with an average later winner. On
paper the Hamdan Al Maktoum owned Mookhlesa seems likely to be just a ready
2yo and the lesser of his pair. Spinning Lucy's overall profile makes a
strong case for her being the other filly to compete strongly for the first
three.
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NEWMARKET CONDITIONS RACE :
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On some days paddock review can seem quite easy, you see the horses and
it is like you have seen them all before (which is the case if the newcomers
represent standard types) and the ratings and the 'order' seems obvious.
On other days the connection isn't made and it's like walking through a
muddy field, all hard graft and few sure steps. The paddock review for
the six in the Conditions race on Wednesday left a sneaking fealling that
this wasn't a strong group but then Spirit Of Sharjah produces a performance
which certainly looked to indicate superior ability. What can be usefully
said?
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MAJOR EAZY
- Here we go again, use of the words 'Narrow' and 'Fasliyev' in the same
sentence. On profile B2yoR was hopeful of a better type but here was a
narrow, very ready 2yo and with a fizzy temperament. Lacking build to be
superior and development he looked all over a 5f (fast course), 'now 2yo
and probably of 'Supersprint' qualty rather than high class. A surprise
to see him favourite and ran as expected being a little free but able to
go the pace easily but not having the oomph to finish up the hill in the
last furlong. A ready 2yo that would look very good running away from Musselburgh
field STO and then struggle in better class.
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SPIRIT
OF SHARJAH - Fine, not out of place in the group and a bigger size
and build than Major Eazy. But, not obviously going to do what he did.
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NIKINDI -
Had come on well from Folkestone and looked much readier. Less quality
than the average and less obviously a '5f' type than the speedier types
here. Vulnerable to a better class newcomer but not abvious that there
was one.
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DARK ANGEL
- Another that has gron from the sales but has gone leggy and light with
it and not look much above average level. A low 70s rater on looks but
performance suggested a little better than that but at further than 5f
given that he stayed on past faders late on.
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ORPEN'S ART
- Just below medium size, solid build with strong shoulders and buttocks
(i.e., quarters). Ought to rate 70-75 but not a superior type. Another
to attract support in a market where most other than Nikindi did but looked
inexperienced in the race and had to be driven along to keep up.
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JEBEL TARQAK
- A different type from the other four newcomers who were more obvious
early 2yos. His sire gets bigger, mature types who can compete well at
2yo on their size and level of development. Lacking real build to be a
5f type but ought to be useful over 6f and interesting to see how he develops.
Would probably need to step down in grade to win at 5f and the trainer
might be better to save him for the start of the 6f maidens in mid-May.
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