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Another round of the Barry Hills, Hannon, Channon and Meehan (the last
two former Hannon assistants) newcomers clash after similar events at Newmarket
and a partial form at other courses already this week. If you remember
the headline then a debut winner in these races for them usually indicates
a horse that can compete at Group level. Accidents can happen though and
Mr Hills won this Newbury event in 2005 with a moderate 2yo and in retrospect
the Racing Post, for example, have rated Dont Tell Mum's win 20lbs below
the normal winner.
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Barry Hills has his string very well forward in 2007 and his 4 runners
to date have managed 1 win and 3 places. At Newmarket he had a second with
the colt Dark Angel and the first and third in the fillies' maiden with
Mookhlesa and Spinning Lucy. The first of those was at 8/1 and looked the
most natural 5f type in just an average field of athletes and got a better
path through the race. In line with the 'Group Race' rule Mr Hills has
already spoken about Mookhlesa
as a Queen Mary type and on looks she would be worth a place but we should
expect to see two or three better types at least before Ascot. His favourite
for that race was Spinning Lucy who got held up behind horses before moving
through to third. Unlike Mookhlesa, who is a stocky build with a sprinter's
snap to her walk, Spinning Lucy
has more length and quality and ought to be better for 6f. Certainly, as
Mr Hills suggested, she would be better than Mookhlesa over that distance.
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Brian Meehan usually debuts the best of his precocious sprint 2yos this
week at Newmarket and if he did then the signs are not good. In many years
these early types end up struggling to break their maiden on later outings
after having run at Royal Ascot. He seemed to have fixed that problem in
2006 but that was possibly because he had a notably good group of 2yos
overall. He entered three fillies at Newmarket and two ran early in the
week at Warwick and looked moderate types. The one who ran at Newmarket
was Alexander Nepotism and she was another smallish, lightly made 'Fasliyev'
and looked a maiden winner at best and finished 5th in line with that.
He ran a smilar Fasliyev colt at Newmarket with Major Eazy who was favourite
but never looked the part in the paddock and looked a 'now' fast track
5f type with limited scope to develop. He also had a fizzy attitude which
needs to seetle down to make that level. Along with his Monday debut runner
at Windsor - Regal Rhythm - who looked moderate to average quality the
report would not be encouraging.
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Mick Channon often starts the season by running a set of ready, and often
expendable 2yos, with the odd development type mixed in (Salute Him, Grantley
Adams in 2005 for example). In later April he will include some of the
better types he has and they occasionally win on debut like La Neige on
the equivalent weekend last year. This week he would appear to have given
us a bit of everything with a development type at Windsor (Barraland),
garbage at Warwick (Leading Edge, and also possibly Dhaka Dazzle on the
same day at Nottingham) followed by an average type with Dan Tucket at
Ripon. He also had the relatively well supported Missit
divide the two Hills' fillies at Newmarket. She started at 9/2 when a real
star like Flashy Wings was 5/4f when she won it in 2005 and Missit didn't
look the part of 'superior type' in the paddock.
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Richard Hannon hasn't given us any useful types this week with two runners
in two races, one at Windsor and one at Newmarket. None of the four did
better than 6th and only Cracking started at a single figure price.
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Which brings us to this race and the closing examination of the week for
where we are with these stable early 2yos. Barry Hills runs two and both
have notable 2yo pedigrees. The expensive Nacho
Libre is out of a dam who has already produced debut winners and useful
2yos for Hannon and Eoghan O'Neill and by Kyllachy who has made a good
start to 2007 with debut winners Kylayne and Mister Hardy. He has a very
strong profile as the stable first string. His other runner No
Nines is the 12th foal of his dam and she's already produced a range
of competitive sprint 2yos although mostly at the average level with the
odd just useful type. He's by Noverre who will add precocious 5f stuff
even though it could come from the dam anyway and another who on profile
looks to be in excatly the right race for his predigree.
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Richard Hannon has given us all sort in this race from development projects
like Marching Song through claimer types like Caan and a good example of
a 'Fasliyev' early speedball last year with Cav Okay who looked mighty
impressive winning it. He proved below Group level despite his 'Norfolk
third' billing helped by the rail bias at Royal Ascot. So, what to make
of Party In The Park? Well,
another notable 'all 5f 2yo' pedigree for a start. His dam ran for the
trainer and won at Listed level over sprint distances at 2yo. Despite the
65,000 guineas sales note he is owned by S. Whent (i.e. who had Bold Edge
and co. witht he trainer), the trainer and others. So it was retained at
the sales. Another in the race by Royal Applause and the field is starting
to look like a real 5f test for some good prospects to be hearing more
of. The SP level of this one is likely to be instructive with both his
debut winners this season backed to favourite and his two fillies at Newmarket
(for example) unplaced at double figure prices.
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Legendary Guest looks another
solid 2yo but less likely to figure for the win than those mentioned although
we should note the point that this is a period when he debuts better types.
Brian Meehan runs Rough Rock and
on profile he seems likely to continue the slightly downbeat week for the
trainer.
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That would be enough for most races but we also have good representatives
from '2yo trainers' with Harlech Castle (covered aboved and very likely
to place today) and Peter Chapple-Hyam's Winker
Watson. He had the beaten favourite in this race in 2005 with Johnny
Alpha who came with a tall reputation he couldn't live up to. In general
the trainer's previous life with notable 2yo successes and debut winners
has affected the way the market reacts to some of his FTO juveniles since
his return. He has said in interview that he takes it more easily with
the 2yos now and in two of the last three seasons his earliest runners
have been just ordinary types at best and even better types like Hunter
Street and Adeje Park only placed in similar races to this. Winker Watson
has the profile to be an above average 2yo and how he competes here will
be a good indicator of what level.
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In summary a fascinating event on profile with a lot of sound future prospects.
If pressed the first three are likely to be Nacho Libre, Party InThe Park
and Harlech Castle but they are 'miles ahead' of a good cast.
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