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Just a brief overview of tomorrow's races. The Thirsk race is a Claimer
and with weight of races these and seller events will receive little coverage
through the season. Contrary to general opinion the claimer level horses
are as reliable as those of average ability when it comes to running consistently.
They turn into 'Headgear and Apprentice' derbies because trainers feel
they have to do something get an edge with moderate horses.
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The Thirsk race is a Class 5 and has a little more substance than some
at the level. It is interesting to note that Splitthedifference and Redbrick
Girl have been dropped into claimers STO. Redbrick Girl rated 42 on debut
when a good rule for the trainer's runners is that they will need to be
rated 50+ (48 at a stretch) to win outside claimer company unless there
was a problem FTO. She finished just behind Mystickhill who has looked
pretty limited in two later runs and not far from Geoffdaw who went on
to win a minor race at Folkestone. Even with improvement she has a tough
job with topweight. Splitthedifference got noted in some places as an eye-catcher
after staying on in the straight in Fat Boy's slowly run race and finishing
in the ruck with some limited types. He doesn't look to be suited to a
fast 5f course like this.
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Both of those horses link to Rio Taffeta who has his third go in the Nottingham
maiden. Splitthedifference was the stable second string to him at Kempton
and finished just behind. Rio Taffeta then finished behind Geoffdaw (from
Redbrick Girl's Southwell race) at Folkestone. The view has to be that
all of that form is moderate and Rio Taffeta most unlikely to give the
trainer his fourth win in the race in 8 years. His last three winners have
been useful or better types but Rio Taffeta looks below average.
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The probable favourite for the race is Group Therapy who drifted on debut
and fluffed the start losing 5 lengths and the jockey was inactive afterwards
and let him drop back to be last and more than 10 lengths off the leader
at halfway. Without really being asked he made progress in the second half
of the race to go past the garbage and finish with the moderate to average
types. From his picture taken on the day he looks a strong, sprint, type
although it can be difficult to judge size from the photograph.
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The trainer has had a couple of STO runs this season and both have finished
second. Cee Bargara showed a 12 point improvement in rating but was beaten
by Tim Easterby's Cristal Clear in the Ripon maiden the family uses for
it's best sprint fillies (going back to Pipalong and Romantic Myth). Ten
Down was given a typically easygoing early-doors ride by Jamie Spencer
at Windsor this week and recorded a lower rating despite running well to
close up 5 lengths on Sauze D'Oulx who had an easy lead. So long as Group
Therapy isn't on the small side he should improve enough to win here so
long as he gets away with the rest (no Spencer this time and no Kelly either
presumably following his 12 month suspension).
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Fidelias Dance for Mark Johnston
is the obvious danger but looked just a solid 2yo winner at the sales and
not the high class type that might win on debut. The trainer got into form
with his 2yos this week with a debut win from Grand Fleet (although with
a moderate rating) and a second from Ramatni in a weak Warwick affair.
The rest of the field has bits and pieces of interest but none likely to
win on debut. In summary :-
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In Honour = First runner for Ed McMahon and his runners have tended to
need runs to develop from and the early debuts inexperienced. If he makes
the first four this would probably be a good sign.
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Outside Edge = Walter Swinburn has managed a just above average strike
rate with 2yos and a couple of debut wins with his best 2yos in the two
years since he took over from father-in-law Peter Harris. But he hasn't
been convincing and his 2yos have needed time to come to form. He has had
just a single runner before July in those years and the wins have
come spread out over the second half of the season to get the strike rate
up to decent levels. So why is Outside Edge here? An absolute natural who
is going to belt up the Thirsk straight? The sales report B2yoR got included
the lines "Very small, 'Mr Mini Scule' seller type, probably competitive
at that level" and "Don't see it [The 30,000 price], why not claim him
for £6,000 at 2yo if you want him". So, perhaps he's here because
he's early-and-racy in the 'very small & limited' sense.
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Rebel Aclaim = First runner for Michael Quinlan whom B2yoR has respect
for as a sound trainer of 2yos. He's usually capable of turning out debut
winners each season although they tend to be in May and we shall be looking
for the right opportunity then. He didn't have a FTO winner in 2006 which
was an indicator of the lack of a better type. His earliest debuts in March
and April tend to compete well enough without winning and in the period
2003-6 he debuted 7 horses in March-April and 6 won later and the other
was placer Fusili who needed longer distances (as her pedigree always said)
to show her 80+ form level. This one is an owner bred and the rating level
he achieves here a good sign of what level he can win at.
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Ridgewood Dani = Trainer doesn't really target 2yo racing and his dam didn't
win until 4yo when showing a good form level. A first four showing on debut
is a sign of a natural 2yo and something to watch for here. His first runner
this year finished a typical 6th and the trainer hasn't had a winner in
the last two years but this one's pedigree looks sound enough.
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