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No 2yo race today and also none on Tuesday depite there being four Meetings.
In general a quiet week upcoming with a single selling race on Wednesday
at Catterick and then a claimer at Beverley on Thursday. With this rare
lull in the racing the Previews over the next few days will take some time
to look at how the season is developing. Which trainers are on schedule
and how to classify the quality of the runners they have shown us so far?
How are the first season sires faring with their initial runners? Which
are the best 2yos to seen to date? The 'Update' tables in the 2007 pages
for trainers and sires have been completed including all races up to the
Nottingham maiden on Saturday evening for those who wish to do some of
this checking themselves.
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At the start of the last week it was noted that with an often informative
Windsor maiden on the Monday followd by the Newmarket and Newbury meetings
we should expect to see some better horses. After the on-course work through
to end Thursday the week had left a reasonable, but not fully convincing,
impression of important and quality horses. The field for the Windsor maiden
had been just so-so and the two smaller, precocious, runners with previous
outings comfortably filling the first two positions. Red
Expresso looked a horse with a solid future but not obviously higher
class and perhaps more Conditions level quality. Barraland
has the size to develop with racing and be better for 6f+ but again no
zing to the after-feeling.
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A brief interlude on Tuesday to see a limited bunch of fillies at Warwick
and certainly nothing to get encouraged about. Ramatni
might get to average but the winner will be one to oppose in later races
and not much should be expected of the others. That doesn't mean that some
of them won't win along the way - there are lots of moderate races during
the season after all but it will be in lesser events.
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The six colts for the conditions race at Newmarket on Wednesday were just
a solid group and mostly ready 2yos. The performance of Spirit
Of Sharjah in showing an ability to quicken off an average pace (with
a strong tailwind) shows he has better ability. However, on looks he's
the type then ends up finishing in the 4th-6th range when upped to Group
races and behind the 'real thing' types which just weren't in the field.
It would be no surprise to see the four remaining maidens from that field
win in due course, including the strongly supported but poor performing
Orpen's Art. But not much more
from them probably.
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Similar feelings developed from looking at the 13 fillies in the Newmarket
maiden on the Thursday. Let's try looking at the - RESULT
- for last year's race to try to find some historical context to check
the feeling. A similar sized field last year and a similar range of trainers.
The winner went on to be a Group winner and the second was a typical Paul
Cole 'important maiden placer' who goes backwards after the initial run.
The third was a 'small and early' type who struggled in maidens and the
midfield was packed with various average types winners of different hues.
The second best filly was probably in 10th with Julia Fielden's (who gave
us Spirit Of Sharjah this year) Bridge It Jo.
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Having looked back at this event from other years the lukewarm feeling
they left as a group on the day seems more acceptable. It is possible that
they are just an average bunch with the possible exception of the Barry
Hills' pair Mookhlesa & Spinning
Lucy. Mookhlesa is small but the most natural looking 5f filly in field
with a sprinter's snap to her walk. She'll compete well early in Conditions/Listed
events but better fillies ought to come along to make her more of the 3rd-6th
type Queen Mary runners. Although always worth remembering what that if
the better ones don't come along, as in 2006, then she wouldn't be out
of it. Spinning Lucy is a very bright chestnut and lacks Mookhlesa's 5f
muscular set-up and has more length and fluent movement. On physical grounds
it is relatively easy to agree with Mr Hills' assessment that Spinning
Lucy will prove the better filly. If there is one in the field she's probably
it.
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Try looking at these pictures of the second from that race in Missit
and the fourth Littlemisssunshine
and see what reaction you have. A sort of middling, yes - well, reaction
on the day and ought to find a maiden but not much more. B2yoR hasn't given
up on Romany Princess just yet after bungling the start here - she looked
a notch-down lesser version of Vermilliann here although she seemed to
have more of a galloping, rather than a sprint action when pressed to join
the final '2f sprint' that the race developed into. Which is a worry.
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Which all meant that going to Newbury on Friday the feeling was there that
perhaps too much was being expected. Each new season you have to work to
get the mental image of later season 2yos out of your mind when looking
at the new crop in early season. These fillies will look better later in
the season after all. But, then you see the field for the Newbury maiden
on the Friday and it becomes clear that you weren't expecting too much
and the 'Real Thing' just looks different when it is there. The words 'Now
we're getting somewhere' form in the brain as the runners for this field
walk around. Now there is a real, here-and-now, comparison to set against
those mental images from Windsor & Newmarket. To put this in context
the paddock review might encompass 2000+ juveniles in a season and the
majority will be non-winners and various shades of not-very-good. There
will be many more disappointments and tepid results than strongly positive
ones. Which means that when the good results are there it makes all the
rest worthwhile. Like seeing a 5-4 barnstormer after sitting through fifteen
nil-nils of a quality you could have participated in.
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There follows a run through of the field and the links from their names
go to the best pictures of them on the day. A group of horses with something
for everyone from big bruisers like Winker Watson through to a flighty
filly like Flying Indian. Let's start with the three biggest horses, in
frame terms, who finished in the first three places.
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WINKER WATSON
- Very likeable. Big, strong and raw-boned bruiser. Very mature for April
both in body and mental outlook. Not particularly neatly put together but
too big and strong for most 2yos at this stage and a good enough mover
depite being slightly upright and broken-over at the front. Just average
fitness in the race and travelled like the best horse on the day in a race
which developed into a 2f sprint. Ought to be able to rate 90 (B2yoR est)
and be competitive for a win at Royal Ascot. His relative size and maturity
may make his less so in later season as that advantage diminishes (assuming
he doesn't get much bigger..).
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LEGENDARY
GUEST - As tall as Winker Watson but, typically for a Channon 2yo,
somewhat narrower and just medium build. Fitter than the winner and showing
a more lively, less focused, attitude and with two handlers throughout.
Took some time to get going as the race sprinted late on but then keeping
on very well. A 6f horse and ought to rate 85+ and be competitive at Listed
level at least.
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PARTY IN
THE PARK - If you like them big then here's another for you. Probably
not quite as tall as Winker Watson but lengthier and more heavily built.
Also mature for an early 2yo but with very good scope to develop. Also
not particularly neat and a bit 'boaty' but carries his size well enough.
Not as ready for the day as the winner. Given the choice of the field it
would have been take Winker Watson for today and this one for what he can
achieve over a career. Ought to rate 88+ and it would be pretty typical
of the trainer if he tries to win the Rose Bowl Stakes back here at Newbury
this season.
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HARLECH
CASTLE - In the preview for the race it was suggested that he ought
to be another Paul Cole 'important maiden' placer. As soon as he came into
the paddock the B2yoR view had changed. Here we had a smaller but very
balanced and ready 2yo but also a little mentally young. The dam can turn
them out on the smaller side and they can still be useful but he seems
just too small. On the plus side another ready 5f type from the dam and
he ought to win at his level up to the 70-71 range. That he got left behind
here by the 'big guys' is the reason why he couldn't place even off a typical
Cole preparation and why the B2yoR view changed. To get placed in a group
of this size and ability he have needed to be medium size at least and
mentally mature.
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MANSII - What
is Clive Brittain up to? Not a question confined to this sphere, obviously,
but worth asking. He normally starts running his 2yos later in the year
unless he has the odd precocious or high class one that shows up well.
He's run four for Mr Saeed Manana this week and they appear to have been
bought to be targeted at 2yo racing. Mr Brittain does not have a good record
with 2yos and in general he only manages to wangle wins with the best of
them. This one medium sized and perhaps just above medium build and about
the fittest in the group. Outpaced as the race quickened before plugging
on. Not convinced about him and might be one to oppose next time.
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NACHO LIBRE
- Stable first string and supported from 4/1 to 3/1 as Winker Watson drifted
a touch and the stable second string ended up as third favourite at 9/2
from 20/1. Just above medium size and heavily built with a good length
and a fluent walk. Looked a quality types than ought to rate 80+ and in
that context, and given the trainer's start with his 2yos (one win and
three places prior to this race), a little disappointing in performance.
Although he finished behind Mansii he did overtake that one during the
race as the sprint started and he moved forward to 4th from 6th before
stalling and dropping back late on. Inclined to the view that this was
a tougher race than the ones that his other runners had placed in and not
far behind a typical debut run for the trainer. On physical looks a much
better type than Dark Angel who finished second to Spirit Of Sharjah for
example.
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FLYING INDIAN
- Having seen a number of Hawk Wing's first yearlings at the sales they
were a variety of shapes and sizes but included enough better types to
believe he will make some good impact in later season. But, 5f winners
in April wouldn't be on the list. The preview for the race suggested that
Mr Balding normally runs a few competitive & precocious types in April
to get his 2yos going. Not stars but usable runarounds. If you forget her
pedigree and just look at her picture you'll see a neat, ready, balanced
2yo and she had a jaunty step on her to make her look more the little sprint
filly. She reminded B2yoR of a filly called Red Trance who ran for the
trainer and perhaps this one has a little more about her. Ought to rate
62+ and be competitive in minor maiden - probably get sent North next time.
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She broke a little slowly here but that didn't seem her fault. She was
in stall 11 next to the rails and with 10 stall slots to a set she was
on her own in one set with a 10 foot gap to the next horse. The stalls
at Newbury often seem to produce a 'weak side' break among the higher numbers
in these big field maidens. Anyway, she was given a happy-in-midfield debut
here by a jockey who presumably knew the second outing is when she'll be
in a race she can win.
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ROUGH ROCK
- Getting towards medium size and compact in length and deep through
the body. The trainer will often buy 2yo prospects who lack size and may
be positively short so long as they have barrel builds and deep bodies.
The sire Dr Fong gets this type and no surprise to see Mr Meehan buying
them and having success at times witht he likes of Doctor Brown. Below
average fitness and just an average type at best. Never got into the race
in a week where the trainer's early sprint 2yos have not looked a strong
group.
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NO NINES -
Definitely one for the 'What was all that about??' file. Apparent stable
second string opened at 20/1 and backed in to 9/2 third favourite. Trainer
had won with his second string (8/1) the previous day. Despite the 'second'
tag a 40,000 guineas buy and with an 'all 2yo' pedigree. In the flesh he
was what you would expect. A lot less quality than Nacho Libre but a compact,
deep bodied 2yo type like Rough Rock but more precocious and a better mover.
Ought to make a competitive 2yo rating around 68-71 but the punt never
looked like a good idea on paddock review given the size of opposition.
Gave a mother-of-many-clunkers performance by missing the break, being
clueless while driven along at the back and then eased after never showing
any ability to get involved. Most likely explanation a combination of inexperience
and not liking the ground. The trainer has a record of bringing horses
back from these debut debacles to win second go so if he's 16/1 in a weaker
race he could be value. Example debacles? - well, try looking up Country
Rambler and Red Ash as a starter.
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