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The last 6 winners of the Pontefract race are a good example set of the
two main sources of winners of this sort of contest :-
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Second time out runners with acceptable form on debut and from trainers
who school their 2yos well and often Southern based and going North to
find a winnable race (Celtic Island & Auntie Dot Com for Bill Turner
in 2000-1, Waterline Dancer for David Evans in 2002 and Farewell To Arms
for Barry Hills in 2003).
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Debut winners from amongst the earliest runners of Northern based trainers
who have a record of getting debut wins with these natural 2yos. Again
they will be trainers who school their runners well and they will normally
show up well FTO if they have any ability. (Penny Whisper & Society
Music for Michael Dods in 2004-5 and both with enough ability to win a
second race later and Eloquent Rose last year for Anne Duffield and another
who won again later).
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Pontefract's has an uphill, left turning, configuration with a notable
penalty for runners that can't get a good position from the break in a
big field like this. This puts an emphasis on fitness and enough nous and
means that even a horse with sound ability can find the best of the ready
types with too much of a lead to pull back in the straight. The uphill
track and the usually sound pace amongst the young enthusiasts means that
any shortage of fitness will be exposed. The winner here should come from
the usual pair of sources.
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Barry Hills won the race in 2003 with the small but precocious Farewell
To Arms who had been quite expensively bought to race in the US after finishing
second in the Brocklesby on debut. She came here with a fitness and ability
advantage and won by 6 lengths from a surprise 50/1 runner-up (who never
won) and an experienced runner of Mrs Duffields (also a permanent maiden).
That filly then got beaten in the Lily Agnes and in an Ascot Group 3 and
showing the limitations of her size against better 2yos before going to
the US.
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Just A Dancer looks to have
stepped out of a pretty similar script. She's already experienced a similar
track configuration at Bath and run very well to get second to a good 2yo
and finishing in front of those with previous outings. She is almost certain
to improve a little on that effort which was already good to win many editions
of this event. She's well enough drawn in 5 and represents a 'proper' favourite
in a maiden of the type where odds against can look a good pirce. However,
Farewell To Arms started at 2/7f so the value depends on the strength of
the opposition.
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The other pair with form are also well drawn and both have led at some
point in there previous races so an ideal scenario for Just A Dancer would
be to let them get on with it and track them. Dawn
Light looked small and easily dealt with in the later stages at Nottingham,
where she appeared to be stable second string, and would have little scope
to improve off a typical trainer preparation. Varinia
is more interesting and probably pressed on too hard on another uphill
track last time and still improved her rating. However, even a reasonable
improvement would leave her short of Just A Dancer and that filly looks
adaptable to different ways the race might set-up.
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So, what about the newcomers? The two from major southern stables would
need to be well above average ability to win off a typical trainer preparation.
Mick Channon runs Artistic License
who doesn't have a particularly 5f pedigree and perhaps why she starts
at this stiff track. The trainer has run one filly in the race recently
with Aces Dancing finishing 3rd of 9 at 11/4 before winning next time.
This looks a pretty typical and a 3rd-5th placing for Artistic License
to set her up for the win attempt next time what to expect. Similar comments
would apply to Michael Bell's Far Gone.
He has also run a single filly in recent years with Alta Petens finishing
4th and then winning on her second go. Unless she's useful and the pedigree
doesn't support that another to finish in the first six as a development
run.
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Which brings us finally to searching amongst the debut runners from Northern
trainers who school their 2yos well enough to get their share of FTO successes.
There's no representative from Anne Duffield nor Michael Dods who have
won the last three years' races and it is worth noting that they have failed
to produce the strongly competitive debuts we would expect from them by
now. Mrs Duffield's 4 debuts to date seem to have failed to place because
of plain lack of ability rather than readiness for example. The shortlis
that emerges from the search, in preference order, is Teatime
Lady, Holly Golightley
and Myriola.
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David Barron gets his 2yos competent and fit enough on debut and the ones
with ability compete well. His reputation as a shrewdie can mean that punts
on his debut 2yos can get out of hand and we see many supported quite strongly
in the first half of the season who are moderate or worse. Both his runners
this season have been supported but both have shown inexperience. On the
positive side we are coming into the period of late-April to early May
when he often debuts some better 2yos. This filly cost $77,000 at the Keeneland
sales which is very expensive for him and in general the US purchases show
up better on debut. The draw of 14 is a worry but Teatime Lady has a good
profile to compete well here..
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Kevin Ryan has already had two debut winners this season but also a range
of more typical development FTOs. Holly Golightley has a usable 2yo pedigree
and her sire Choisir has made a good start with his precocious batch of
2yos. Well drawn in 3 she ought to be able to get to a tracking postion
if she has ability. Another to show up well on debut but lacking the higher
class hints that will be needed to deal with Just A Dancer on expected
form.
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James Given's record with 2yos has declined notably by number of runners
in recent years and his strike rate was always below average. With just
12 runners in 2006 the useful Everymanforhimself managed to lift his strike
rate to better levels. He was always a prime example of a 'Show or Nothing'
trainer meaning that he got them so fit and ready at home that if they
didn't place FTO then you could be near certain they weren't any good.
With the lack of competitive 2yos that has been less obvious in recent
years and he has managed later run seller wins with horses that couldn't
place on debut. Predictably, when he has a worthwhile 2yo like Everymanforhimself
it wins first time as his first runner of the season. Which means that
Myriola is of interest as his first runner this year. Is she a better type
who can compete here or one of his seller fillies that he runs early if
he hasn't got a good one? At the sales she looked at the 'good' end of
seller type and certainly competitive at that level but unlikely to be
up to placing here.
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The Windsor profile leads to an interesting outcome with Brassini
a little clear and with a good draw and his trainer already having had
a STO winner enough positives to believe that's sensible. In the two seasons
since his ultra fast start to the season 2005 Mr Millman has used a more
development approach with his 2yos and this is typical for trainers who
have tried this win-lots-of-soft-races by mid-April approach. He has also
been assisted in this change by having some less precocious, and able,
2yos of course.
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Brassini made his debut at Nottingham at a time when the trainer used to
run his best early 2yo and he held up well at 8/1 in what looked a tough
field for a Novice. Having pressed to pace he stalled towards the final
furlong and faded but showed enough to suggest improvement will see him
set an average target for the rest here. That Nottingham event is difficult
to get a handle on with the runner-up looking just a neat & ready type
when second here last week to the Millman trained Sauze D'Oulx who ought
to be less able than Brassini on what we know. The fifth from that race
was the well backed Mark Johnston runner Tazawud who has run another clunker
since at Ripon. The sixth helps to add to the thought it was an ok performance
by Brassini because Varinia went on to run respectably behind Mister Hardy
and Thunder Bay at Newcastle and runs again today at Pontefract.
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Avertitop was second favourite
at 8/1 on debut but was never put into the race and didn't show a lot of
natural ability. That looked more like the debut of an ordinary winner
at best and below the level Brassini can reach for STO improvement. Kairaba
looked close to useless in the same race as Avertitop and a bad sign for
a trainer who has his FTO runners ready to run to their best. Which means
that without being a strong 'fan' Brassini looks best of those with previous
runs.
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Working through the newcomers leaves the feeling that although Brassini
sets an average standard those on FTO runs will struggle to meet it. Remembering
that we are in a week after some major maidens when the bigger stables
would have run their better types this group look average and unlikely
to win on debut. In summary :-
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Abfabfong - 55,000 guineas buy
and enough in his pedigree suggest a solid type but his trainer usually
runs his better types in maidens at the major courses. His record with
April debuts in recent seasons is not good overall and his Windsor record
in the last 3 seasons has been to run moderate types here including some
expensive ones. Still comes out best of the newcomers on profile but at
a low level.
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Balata - Probable second string for
trainer who has Brassini running. Looked usable at a moderate to average
level at the yearling sales but not useful enough to win on debut.
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Huzzah - By the first season sire
Acclamation who has made a
sound enough start with his early 5f types and this one looked an average
type at the sales. Given the trainer's record so far he ought to compete
for a place here but not quite good enough to win. The fact that he starts
at Windsor suggests just an 'alright' type. The trainer ran 17 on debut
at the course between 2002-5 with just one placing and the majority non-winners
over the season. That record improved last year with as many as 9 FTO runs
for 1 win and 4 places although only three of the nine won during the year.
A profile of an average type that could place in a middling sort of maiden
like this one but ought to be something better on the day.
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Ink Spot - Good 2yo pedigree (dam
won the Hilary Needler for Tim Easterby) but just a middling price at the
sales given that. Trainer runs competitive 2yos in his first batch usually
ranging in ability from just below average to very useful. His two debut
so far have placed while lacking the nous to win. A similar debut for this
one would see a 3rd-5th placing and would need o see signs that he's useful
to win today.
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Insured - Included here because
he's the one that niggles away as the longer priced runner who might get
involved. A lesser type at the sales than Huzzah, Balata or Avertitop but
not by so much that a highly tuned debut couldn't see him keep with them
from his good draw. We have limited evidence with the trainer since he
replaced Mark Polglase at owner Paul Dixon's training establishment at
Haygarth House but there are hints he gets them ready FTO. Mr Polglase
had an interesting approach which led to a series of duff runs flowering
into a good class win for his best 2yo and usually at a longer SP and relatively
easy to spot in advance. We shall miss him for that but presumably Mr Dixon
could live without all the inpenetrable clunkers surrounding the wins.
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Mount Pleasure - Jamie Osborne
has made a good start this year with his four runners having a record of
two winners and two others with three solid second placings between them.
All four have shown enough ability to win an early season race. In previous
seasons the hint has been that the debuts that follow this first batch
(usually in a short period) are less natural 2yos at best and can be limited
types. Either way the profile is for him to be just another okish deb and
not a better type to win first up.
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