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Three interesting races on Saturday and the most informative is likely
to be the fillies' race at Haydock. This has traditionally had a
single figure field and with the bulk of it from Northern stables. Southern
based runners last won in 2003 with subsequent Listed race winner Needles
And Pins for Michael Bell. The quality of the winner has been very variable
with seller winner Villa Del Sol and moderate Flossytoo at one end and
the last two winners have managed to place in weakish Listed races later
(Skyelady & Amber Valley). Presumably because of the promise of good
ground, or easier, for the first time this season this race has a large
field and a good set of representatives from southern stables.
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In a race where the runners with form looked limited to lower 50s ratings
it appears to be crying out for a good debut run from one of those with
strong profiles. In summary :-
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Edie Superstar is covered above and with Janina appeal as the pair who
can give us the strong debut. Barry Hills didn't use Haydock much for debuts
before 2005 but in the last two years the high class fillies Spinning Queen,
Cumin (both in his 'golden June' period) & La Presse have started out
here. Before the season started B2yoR noted that we should back all of
Hamdan Al Maktoum's early debut runners with trainer John Dunlop because
of the high strike rate and relatively good SPs. A reader of the site did
some research and found that this owner's record with debuts can be profitable
with a number of trainers with some simple rules. Mr Hills has already
had a debut winner for the owner this year with Mookhlesa's 8/1 success
at Newmarket. In general a positive profile for a strong debut.
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Janina is a good example of how the sales prices go up when the Maktoums
get involved in a family. Her dam was a cheaply bought filly from the first
crop of Danehill Dancer before he had made his reputation. She ran for
Nerys Dutfield and won on debut and proved a high class sprinter over three
seasons. As an aside, Mrs Dutfield seems to have lost the knack of finding
these cheap & useful fillies with poor returns in recent years. This
is the first foal and the price goes up to 110,000 guineas.
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Jennifers Joy is the other filly with enough in her profile to suggest
she could be useful but would need to be high class to win for the trainer
off a typical debut and on pedigree would seem to be suited to 6f+. Of
the middling level starters Eastern Romance and Twilight Belle were both
seen at the sales and looked to be average types at best. They have similarities
in their background in that both are related to useful 2yos who raced for
some combination of the owner/trainer and are 'breeding prospects' on those
grounds which should help the price. On that basis the 30,000 guineas paid
by Terry Holdcroft (of Bearstone Stud, Mind Games, etc) to retain Eastern
Romance is a low figure and she looked a limited type. Kevin Ryan knows
his job is to get a win out of her at any level so she can join the Bearstone
Stud broodmares with her name in capitals in the sales catalogues. But
she just didn't look good enough to win here.
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Twilight Belle is a half sister to Twilight Blues who ran fro Brian Meehan
and placed in the Gimcrack. Meehan has then trained the next two foals
to be 2yo winners before the Maktoums have stepped in the puch the price
up again. Hamdan bought the 2003 foal for 150,000 to get an 80ish 3yo handicapper
and the 2004 foal cost Godolphin 420,000 guineas (being by Golden Boy stallion
Pivotal) and, of course, we haven't seen him since. Which puts into context
that 87,000 guineas for Twilight Belle last year wasn't that high and had
a lot to do with her residual breeding value (related to a Group 2 winner).
Richard Hannon was the underbidder for her so presumably he thought she
could be a useful 2yo but she looked ordinary at the sales and unlikely
to figure here.
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Bonny Rose is likely to be a winner of some variety but not the better
type on background to win for Mark Johnston and the sire - Zaha
- is a negative. Which leaves Socceroo who runs for Tim Pitt and presumably
is better quality than the 2yos he has run so far. We'll learn more from
her debut about how he approaches debuts and so far his sole debut winner
since he started has been with a Listed+ quality runner in later season.
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The Leicester maiden has a different shape to it and as laid out
above Legendary Guest is well clear on profile and ought to win and confirm
the strongly positive view of the Newbury maiden he ran in. Of those to
have run before Ben has shown us what
he is capable of and has no scope to improve. Gaitskell
runs for a trainer who normally has his runners well forward on debut
and finished a solid fourth at the course last time. In a race lacking
stronger debut types he ought to place but would need to make abnormal
improvement to get near to Legendary Guest. Regal
Rhythm made a middling debut for Mr Meehan and looked lightly built
and narrow although a reasonable size and mature enough. He ought to develop
to rate around 60 but that leaves him short of the standard needed and
another placer contender today who may well struggle to find a race.
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Unlike the Haydock race there are not any candidates for a higher class
debut and the solid middling types to assess for the future are :-
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Bahama Baileys - relatively
cheap purchase out of an unraced dam for an important owner for the stable
(who used to own the dam). A profile to be a minor winner in the North
and a 4th-6th finish here would be typical.
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City Wizzard - Yet another by
Bahamian Bounty (along with the favourite and Bahama Baileys) and bred
by 'Mick Channon' in some form via the Norman Court Stud set-up. The dam
cost them 95,000 from a German background and proved to be a minor 7f winner
but they kept her to breed from. As with he dam this one was small
but put together ok but an average winner type at 2yo. The trainer normally
starts debuting his best early 2yos before mixing in some moderate to average
ones and used this race for that type last year (the eternal placer Blue
Monkey). Even his better types have looked inexperienced this year and
had to work hard to place and this looks another 4th-6th type.
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Just Sort It - William Jarvis
doesn't strongly target 2yo racing and normally gets 2-3 winners from 11-15
runners and a below average strike rate (boosted in 2006 by Tobosa's efforts
alone). However, he does get his early 2yo types very fit for debut and
if they have ability they can sho up well. In 2002 his first runner won
and the second placed, in 2005 the first placed second at 14/1 and last
year the first two debuts placed by mid-April. This runner has a mixed
pedigree and the dam hasn't produced anything of note since 1998 but in
that context the 35,000 guineas he costs suggests he might be an ok type.
Might be a surprise placer and a shorter SP (less than 8/1) a positive
sign.
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Transcendent - James Bethell
has a similar record to Mr Jarvis in terms of runners, winners and strike
rate. He gets the odd debut win by superior types like Strawberry Dale
but hasn't had a 2yo win before June in recent years. Like Mr Jarvis the
early runners with abilty do show up first time and 4 of his 7 winners
in the last four seasons have placed on debut. This runner is by a solid
sire out of a solid sprint 2yo dam who has produced similar and in a typical
price range for the trainer. As with Just Sort It a place for him would
not be a surprise given that Regal Rhythm & Gaitskell don't provide
a strong supporting cast of experienced horses.
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The Ripon Auction race (weights set by most recent sales price)
is a Class 5 but has a low quality field with 12 of the 14 runners in the
lowest two weight bands and Bella
Natasha having to give 4lbs and more to everything else for being retained
for around 20,000 guineas (not a large amount given the strength of the
recent sales markets). The recent winners have included some useful fillies
though including Listed race winner Bow Bridge (retained 6,000 guineas)
and Polly Alexander (retained 9,000) who later won a Salisbury Conditions
event beating Group 2 winner Captain Hurricane. They were both cheaper
types so somewhere in this fiedl there might be a filly who can win at
Conditions level.
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Even further back we find two multiple winning 2yos for Alan Berry with
Red Galaxy & Simianna. Having taken over from his father in 2000 the
decline of the stable has been dramatic with just a single win, at seller
level, in each of the last two seasons. He reportedly only had 40 of the
114 boxes full at the yard earlier this year and was looking to sell. The
stables problems have included being found guilty of not running Hillside
Girl on her merits and the legal costs associated with that. Given all
that Mr Berry has his first runner of the year here with Look
Busy and what's with the name? Humour in adversity? Very laudable.
It's not the 'looking busy' it's being busy that's needed. Even when he
had 2yo winners in good numbers the early debuts could be laughably inept
so Look Busy will have to be an utter natural to show up.
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In these auction races the spread of weights can often allow a low weight
with an apprentice to show up well. Bella Natasha will have to give 15lbs
to the lowest weights with 7lb apprentices and on a straight 5f course,
with a competent 2yo, all you need from the jockey might be to not get
in the way. That said, there seems to be a lot of potential very low raters
today and Sinead Of Aglish and Bella Natasha stand out and should finish
first and second if they run to their previous levels.
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If you believe the time of her debut race then the first of those will
win today and may well be up to Conditions Race level in the first half
of the season. She was probably very ready on debut but should run to a
60+ B2yoR estimate here which sets a tough mark for Bella Natasha who has
to give her 4lbs. At Kempton she was backed into 7/2 second favourite but
ran just an alright race in slow time finishing just behind a horse entered
in a seller later and just ahead of two horses who have been comfortably
beaten since and another who has won a claimer. In her defence she was
clearly in need of the experience and lost some ground at the start. She
was also a solid physical type that the trainer gets to peak on their second
run in early season. She should improve well from debut but it is a long
way from a low 40s base level to match a runner who might reach 60+.
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