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The Brighton maiden on Sunday is a Class 4 which means the course management
have upped the prize money a little to try to attract better runners. Traditionally,
the course is used by major stables to send their moderate to ordinary
class 2yos to for the purpose of getting a win when they know (and the
on-course evidence often supports their view) they will struggle in average
maiden races at more competitive courses. When the major stables aren't
represented the maiden and auction races at the course can be selling class.
On 2006 figures only Southwell, Musselburgh & Ayr recorded a lower
average rating for the winners of these race types.
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Having said that it is interesting to look at the last eight winners of
this race and see that it includes three later Group winners of various
types and two useful 2yos from Mick Channon (Golden Guest & Zato).
Mr Channon also gave us the first of those Group types in 1999 when Cheveley
Park victress Seazun won. In 2002 Richard Hannon gave us an entirely untypical
runner with the high class Hurricane Alan who looked just useful when running
over 5f at 2yo and blossomed to Group wins over 8-9f as an older horse.
2004 saw the start of the rise of the remarkable Im Spartacus in a weak
edition of the event. He had been retained by his breeder for the minimum
bid as a yearling (800 guineas) and thrashed in the first 2yo race of the
season. He developed to be an average Nursery type over 8f before winning
a handicap off 84 and an Irish Group 3 race at 3yo. His OR descended back
to 75 as a 4yo when not with (now suspended) trainer David Flood. A story
which perhaps tells us most about the quality of some Group 3 races and
the methods Mr Flood used to get strong improvement from horses.
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Last season's - Result
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and the only later winner was at claiming level by Mrs Crossy. This year
looks slightly stronger but winnable with a below average performance and
perhaps not even needing to get into the 60s (B2yoR level). In a low quality
race it can be premature to dismiss a newcomer but Vicky Haigh's Amazing
Spirit would need to have unusual ability to win first time. She hasn't
had a debut winner and her best recent 2yo with Ooh Aah Camara could only
finish fourth on debut in a weaker race than this.
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Mick Channon has won the race 4 times in the last 8 years and three of
them were above average 2yos. However, his Rio
Taffeta looks a typical 'bigger stable moderate one' entry and here
in the hope of blagging a weak race. He looked small but usable at a low
level on his debut when he was first string ahead of Splitthedifference
for the stable. That runner was dropped to a claimer and allowed to move
on after his win when recording a rating close to being good enough to
compete here. However, Rio Taffeta has not progressed from debut and looked
to be getting smaller in paddock review at Folkestone and not to be enjoying
the day. His run at Nottingham seemed to confirm that when he hung right
most of the way and gave the impression of something bothering him. He's
a bit better than the moderate form he's shown but not a profile to support.
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Andy Haynes was expected to make an effort to show up with his 2yos in
early season after his move to a new base. He did that in April at Wawick
when Nestor Protector won a seller when backed and Sinead Of Aglish (runs
at Ripon on Saturday) was a good second. At Lingfield his Swindon Town
Flyer was a disappointment in paddock review and clearly not ready to compete.
Smaller than Concertmaster and less able in the long term. He finished
close to that runner in the end but without ever getting into the race
and it has been no surprise to see him given a 31 day break to develop.
He ought to be more knowing here but there's no evidence to suggest he'll
finish in front of Concertmaster this time nor that he's a better physical
type than some of the others.
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Which leaves the three possibles for a win - Concertmaster, Cracking
& Lord Deevert. Unless the
Hannon runner gets strong support then Concertmaster is the obvious favourite
and should run a sound race. But he's likely to set a standard in the low
60s and therefore not a strong standard if he's at a shorter SP (say 13/8
or less). He wasn't ready to compete strongly at Lingfield and a slightly
better physical type than the winner of that race. He got hampered early
but handled the downhill, left-hand, turn very well to rail through to
second before fading late back to the bunch. A good sign for him handling
this track.
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He then went to Bath and ended up favourite in a big field but at 4/1 and
not suggesting anyone thought he was particularly good. He again dropped
to midfield behind a strong pacesetter and had to be driven along and looked
to be uncomfortable on the firm turf. As the pacesetters faded to various
degrees he plugged on to get third late but without ever getting into the
race. So, he ought to handle the course but there's a doubt over him on
firmer going and he needs to grow up mentally and get involved more early
in the race. Not a strong profile for a favourite unless at a longer SP.
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Oh dear, what to make of Cracking? If you read the Trainer Performance
summary from the April 26th link you will know that he has negatives but
some hints of positives. Since 2002 Hannon has run 50 juveniles at the
course and 10 have won so a 20% strike rate and well above his average.
If you take the exception of Hurricane Alan out of the winners then the
others are a split of moderate to average types (with the odd winner getting
an 80+ OR which they struggle with). The runners at 5.3f have been less
able as a group than those at longer distances. Only one of the ten winners
has started at longer than 7/2 and seven at 5/2 or less. So, if he's any
good we should expect some indication in the market.
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He was 9/2 second favourite on debut and the only runner in single figures
behind and odds-on favourite and stable first string. In the race he was
given an aggressive ride by Richard Hughes to get across from a centre
draw to press the leader on the rail early. This type of activity is usually
a good sign from the often inert Mr Hughes because it means he thinks it
worth finding out what the horse can do. Well, having lost a length to
the leader/winner by halfway he proceeded to fade badly from one-and-a-half
furlongs out and finished well back (presumably partly due to the jockey).
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So, some of the vibes and circumstances of his debut were positive but
his fade and final performance rating were not. In paddock review he was
small and short and not that powerful behind. A natural, early, type over
5f if he has a bit of zip but not with longer term potential. The market
price should be really informative here and if he's backed as favourite
he's probably the zippy 5f type that can win this.
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And finally to Lord Deevert. Bill Turner hasn't had a winner yet and hasn't
had his normal long priced debut success in very early season for this
one's owner. Lord Deevert has run at the courses which would suggest he
is the best he has for the owner this year but has achieved nothing. But,
on debut he looked either very inexperienced or unco-operative when losing
ground early and needing to be whipped after a furlong to attend to business.
A brief response into the straight before fading back and finishing behind
Rio Taffeta.
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He then turned up in the strong Newbury maiden and was at 100/1 and finished
last again. So, no good then? Well, he was much more competent at Newbury
and just a neck off the leader at halfway and only just starting to feel
the pressure when his saddle slipped two furlongs out and he got pulled
up. To answer the question, we don't know yet how good he is. On paddock
review he's in the right race with similar physical types and showed enough
for 3 furlongs last time to think he can get involved here. His trainer
has won the race before including last year.
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In summary, Concertmaster likely to be favourite but one to oppose at shorter
odds and without a strong profile to set a diffuclt standard for the others
and a niggle about the ground. Cracking's chances should be made much clearer
by the market and if he has ability he should shorten at 3/1 and less.
If he's longer than that with a drift he's more likely to be moderate.
And, depending on the odds, worth throwing a bit at Lord Deevert because
he has the 'Duck Eggs' profile which leads to longer SPs but with the type
of excuses which show up when you start to investigate longer priced winners
after the event (blown debut from trainer's better type, saddles slipping,
etc).
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