-
A low level start to a week where the highlight ought to be the Conditions
race on Wednesday at Ascot's first flat meeting of the year. This fillies'
auction race at Windsor is limited to runners that cost less than around
30,000 guineas on their latest sale with weights carried accordingly. With
one notable exception the recent fields have been made up of odd precocious
2yos who are just above average but with the bulk of the field below average
level down to plain useless. That one exception was in 2005 when Rising
Cross finished 5th along with the other little fillies and not hinting
at being likely to place in the Oaks.
-
If you look at the - Result
- for last year's race it shows that the first 7 home included only one
later winner (in a weakish Leicester race) but those that finished 8th
to 15th included 7 that won later in the year. [The uppercase 'W' in the
sixth column indicates a later winner]. What happened? The answer is that
six of the 'lower 7' won at selling level and another in an Auction race
which was only just above that standard. The oddity was Three Decades who
showed her best from on the all weather and underperformed on her first
go on softish turf. It was races like this which means that 'S' & 'C'
will be used in the results this year, along with 'W', to indicate later
winners at selling and claiming level.
-
The better fillies in the race last year did make the first four but placed
at most in average maidens later. They made the front of the race despite
going to opposite sides of the track on softer going and the same happened
in 2005. In that year the later solid winners were in 2nd, 3rd & 5th
despite the field finishing spread all over the course looking for the
best ground on soft going. This year's group looks pretty typical in quality
on profile with the bulk of it liable to end up in lower grade races. The
best of them ought to make up the first 4-5 places and there's probably
one or two that can compete at average level and will perhaps be tried
in better races without figuring strongly.
-
It's possible to split the field into two groups of possibles for the win
on the day :-
-
Of the others with form Zahwah is
likely to finish midfield on her way to a later seller win (as her trainers
last two runners have); Seventh
Cloud ought to be capable of better than she showed on debut but her
trainer's 2yo record is mixed and she probably needs to develop with racing.
Michael Blanshard has his first
runner of the season with Perfect
Flight and the words 'Jamie Spencer's booking catches the eye'
is already forming in the ATR summariser's larynx. The trainer is one of
a number (like Willie Jarvis & Chris Wall) who have a comfortable niche
and run 10-15 juveniles a year and get 2-3 winners normally. Unless they
have a development type of 2yo the earliest debuts will include the usable
2yos of varying quality. In Mr Blanshard's case his later winners debut
in May-June normally so we are about right. Unlike Willie Jarvis he doesn't
get debut winners although his 2yos are usually competent enough FTO and
can place if they are any good and always at longer SPs. He also hasn't
had a winner before June between 2002-6. So Mr Spencer is probably just
there for the ride although she is well drawn (which the jockey would usually
forfeit anyway...).
-
Those that have run haven't managed a place between them so do not set
a strong standard. The best of them ought to be Affirmatively although
she is poorly drawn in 2. She was retained by the Wyck Hall Stud and ran
in the important fillies' maiden they sponsor at Newmarket in mid April.
David Elsworth had prepared her thoroughly and she was the fittest in that
field. If you look at this - Picture
- of her on the day you'll see that she's tall and skinny (which fits with
her low 10,000 guineas retained price) and very lightly made through the
loins. But, if you look at the muscle definition lines she is mostly fit
and she isn't going to improve much, if at all, for the race.
-
Despite it's large field and major Newmarket meeting billing the field
for that race didn't convince as better class and it was run with a slowish
pace and developed into a '2 furlong sprint' late on. Affirmatively was
9th, but only a little over 3 lengths off the leader at halfway, and made
a little ground as the sprint started before being allowed to come home
on the back of the main bunch in 7th without being pressed. The rating
for that race is possibly too high at 62 for winner Mookhlesa but it can
be very hard to fight the 'important race' billing and trainer/owner combinations
when rating a race. If the rating is right then Affirmatively could win
without doing much more than she did there in receipt of 7lbs from the
topweight. Assuming John Egan is going to press her into the race more
from her outside draw she has a solid chance for a win. But that would
be it for her because she isn't going to improve.
-
Given that Dettori is riding for Meehan and she has a good draw Carolina
Blini will presumably be a shortish favourite. But, she didn't look much
at the sales and she achieved very little at Warwick in a weak race run
in a slow time. She looked to have gone back a little physically that day
and her - Picture-
shows her to be entirely different from Affirmatively in being a short,
slightly chubby one (which Meehan goes for rather than the more willowy,
rangy, types). Given the likely SP she is one B2yoR will be looking
to oppose. She's limited and there just ought to be something better in
the race. If she gets the rail and wins by a couple of lengths then it
would almost certainly mean the rest are moderate or worse.
-
Of the newcomers Ponder Anew is the most expensive in the field and has
to give between 3-9lbs to the others which is a big handicap for a newcomer
and she isn't that well drawn in 5. The trainer hasn't got going with his
2yos yet and the first two debuts moderate. In his quicker starting
years he often has early places on debut in March and the start of April
but we haven't seen that in 2007. After those early runners he normally
has a lull before the better types come out in mid May and the debut places
restart. He's run two in this race recently with Ashes finishing midfield
in 2004 at 9/1 and Princess Ileana (eternal placer) 2nd at 28/1 last year.
In what looks a weakish race she could make the first four or five but
unlikely to win.
-
Tan Bonita runs for Mark Wallace who has already had two STO wins following
debut places from three runners. He appears to debut his competitive early
2yos by early April and the ones that debut late in the month and early
May are often more limited types which is a niggle. But, she looked an
ok type at the sales for this type of race and a good draw. Likely to place
if she has any ability and one to assess on the day to be able to beat
Carolina Blini.
-
Talk of Saafend represents Richard Hannon who's recent record in the race
is :-
-
2002 : Alexa - 5th at 12/1
-
2003 : Our Gamble 12th at 7/2 and Compassion 13th at 8/1
-
2004 : Agent Kensington 2nd at 7/1
-
2005 : Gamble in Gold won at 8/1, Gillipops 3rd at 9/1
-
2006 : Baltic Belle 3rd at 8/1 & Whiplash 5th at 9/1
-
And it is a record you can chop up to mean anything you want it to. Of
those 8 fillies only 3 actually won as 2yos and only Gamble In Gold,
who he used as his best early 5f filly to run in Listed races, won on debut.
Which means that this would have to be a pretty soft race for Talk Of Saafend
to win first time unless she's above average. Mr Hannon hasn't impressed
so far with the quality he's run to date as a set and this one's pedigree
doesn't say 5f either.
-
In summary, a moderate looking race and B2yoR will be looking to find an
alternative to Carolina Blini and if you could swap the draws over could
be pretty sure that Affirmatively would beat her at least. Given that she's
well drawn and got a quiet ride on debut just about worth having another
look at Polish Priory on the day but her trainer's runners usually show
up more on debut if they have ability. Of the newcomers Ponder Anew appears
to have too much against her and Talk Of Saafend not obviously better class.
Tan Bonita makes some appeal but more likely to place. Which means
a low level performance likely to be needed to win so a real surprise from
something like Perfect Flight not out of the question. If Carolina Blini
wangles the win then just have to lump it and put up with the smiling &
whooping, no flying dismounts, perlease.
|
