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Two moderate races today following the Conditions race yesterday which
saw a bunched finish between those who raced off the rail and a little
off the pace. The ground looked loose and the runners were kicking shallow
divots out as if the watering hadn't got beyond the top layer. The time
was a little slower than Elhamri ran in 2006 in winning the Windsor Castle
with 2lbs more and a little faster than Dutch Art ran in success in the
Norfolk Stakes with the same weight. Both of those races were much quicker
than the sub-standard quality Queen Mary won by Gilded (for interest the
5th finally won again yeasterday after many tries with an official rating
in the 50s.).
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It seems most unlikely that the field is up to Elhamri and Dutch Art's
quality and the fast ground (under the thin top layer) along with a very
strong tailwind probably contributed. On looks the first four appear to
be 65-79 class types and helped by their precocity and, in most cases,
by better athleticism. The winner would apear to be the type who might
place in a typical Windsor Castle but behind that in a better quality renewal.
Richard Hughes make a report under the rules that Fat Boy "Stopped very
quickly" and he did fade tamely after setting an above par pace with Sauze
D'Oulx (an inferior physical type who faded less).
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The Folkestone auction race is typically thin and there is no obvious reason
to oppose Dan Tucket who made
a solid debut by his trainer's standards. His third when running in the
centre of the track at Ripon, which seemed some sort of disadvantage, looks
better now that Cee Bargara (2nd)
won comfortably yesterday. He ran a typical race at 5f for a newcomer from
the yard by getting a little outpaced and then staying on late but he faces
a lesser group here who should set less of a 5f test.
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The other runner with form - Danny
Boy Blue - is tiny and very limited and 6lbs allowance won't help him.
Eve Johnson-Houghton has her first 2yo runner with Hobson
who was a non runner a on Bath's concrete on Tuesday which saw Enticing
break the 5f course record comfortably with dust flying up. She has been
assisting her father Fulke for some years and he is still involved so the
stable approach is likely to be the same. She starts at a typical time
but the stable normally only has debut wins with the very best 2yos and
Hobson's profile is well below that. Sheikh'n'knotsterd
runs for John Akerhurst who hasn't had a 2yo winner in recent seasons and
by a suspect sire in Zaha. Bill Turner hasn't had his early winners this
season which is a bad sign and his later debuts tend to be lesser types.
She has enough in her pedigree to be a minor winner but not to win on debut.
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The Catterick is tricky because the two fillies with form set such a weak
standard. Lady Rangali had the
disadvantage of running up the centre at Beverley when 5th in a big field
but that rates poor form and her trainer's 2yos tend not to develop much
from their well prepared debuts. Kevin Ryan's Holly
Golightley would be one to oppose as well with a decent alternative.
She was a volunteer favourite on debut in a weak field and recorded a low
debut rating by the trainer's standards which would normally indicate a
claimer quality runner. She had some excuse in that she was hampered on
the rail but that seemed partly because she lacked the ability to get through
the gap quickly enough and even allowing for that she would have been 3rd
or 4th in a moderate race.
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Given that a solid debut from a newcomer would be able to deal with these
fillies although the Catterick downhill track sets a technical challenege
for debut runners given that Lady Rangali is likely to set a good pace.
Tim Easterby has had his usual debut winner for the season withe a filly
already and rarely gets them later. His Moonlight
Gambler looked a pretty sure 2yo winner at the sales but has to give
4-12lbs to the others and a stiff task FTO. Of the filly newcomers Lady
Benjamin will have to be very good to win off a Pat Haslam preparation.
He had a runner backed from 40/1 to 14/1 in Lady Rangali's race to give
him a rare debut win but lack of nous meant it never got closer than 3rd
late.
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Bryan Smart does get debut wins and has taken a break with his 2yos after
one early runner didn't get home. Maid
In Bloom is out of a mare he trained to win but her sales price suggests
she be a bit too limited to win on debut even with a weight concession.
Which leaves Select Committee
as the most likely on profile to be staying on at the little-fillies-with-experience
in the last furlong. John Quinn has a very variable record with 2yos with
2004 a very good year and 2006 seeing a single, selling class, winner.
He is another trainer that gets debut wins and places with his better and
competitive 2yos and in this quality of event Select Committe could be
good enough. He has a good pedigree to make an early 5f 2yo and made a
solid price at the sales given his background.
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