British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season Race Preview

British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season

Racing Preview - May 4th

Today's Races

[43] : Lingfield AW 2:00, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)

[44] : Musselburgh 2:50, 5f maiden (5)

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Trainer :	Trainer P. Winkworth, in common with a number of other predominantly NH stables, gets his 2yos notably fit and ready for their debut runs. He would be classified in the 'Show or Nothing' bracket whereby if a 2yo has any ability it will show up well on debut and typically make the first four. If it shows 'nothing' on debut there is probably very little point expected any improvement. With his first two 2yos in 2004 he had a 6th placer at 40/1 and a 20/1 winner with both runners close to their final rating FTO. In 2005 he had four places in the range 2nd-4th from his first five runners at SPs between 14/1 to 66/1 with the exception a seller class filly who failed in soft going in a better race. Last year his first two runners were 4th and 3rd at 40/1 and 4/1 (in a weak 5 horse affair) and the third won at 20/1. He has his first runner at Lingfield with the filly Deal Flipper who cost only €22,000 but has a usable 5f 2yo pedigree. One niggle is that he has run a more limited type as a 'sighter' as his first 2yo in the last three years. However, following these types of trainers that get regular longer priced debut wins and places means backing each of their earliest runners that are likely to include the competitive 2yos types. Trainer JH Johnson is another with an NH, and farming, background who started training 2yos in 2004 backed by accounting software tycoon (if down-to-earth geordie lads can be called that) Graham Wylie's money. Typically, he has strongly prepared his 2yos for debut and it is easy to find examples of runners that peak for debut or in early season and do not progress. It is possible to suggest he is too hard on them in early training and he has said himself that he is 'still learning the game'. In his first three seasons 2004-6 he has debuted the close to the best 2yo he has as his first runner with Abraxas Antelope (1st at 4/1 FTO and placed in the Gimcrack) in 2004; Masta Plasta (2nd at 4/1 FTO beaten a head by the Coventry third who had already run, won the Norfolk Stakes) in 2005; & Domino Dancer (3rd at 4/1, just an average maiden winner after an early form dip) in 2006. The performance of Domino Dancer in 2006 suggested he didn't show us his best 2yo first up at the time. In retrospect he didn't have much quality last year (despite all the money spent) and Domino Dancer probably was the 'best he had' (leaving aside Algol's late season development in nurseries). Which means that Quarrymaster's debut at Musselburgh should be informative in a number of ways. The 40,000 guineas paid for him is quite high given the moderate to average quality of his siblings (athough including 3 juvenile winners of different types). His sire Captain Rio was high up in the 'First Season Sire' lists to be champion but has made a slow start with no winner yet (similar to anothe son of Pivotal last year in Kyllachy). So, some slight negatives to overcome but those that have raced all have gripes against them so if he is Mr Johnson's best he have a solid chance of beating them.
Paddock Review :
Ratings :	Andrasta ran as second string to Brian Meehan's Carolina Blini at Warwick in what looked a poor fillies' maiden (with the exception of development potential for Ramatni). They were a small, narrow and limited group. Andrasta finished in front of Carolina Blini but achieved a low rating and the other filly was easily beaten at Windsor on Monday in what looked a similarly poor fillies' Auction event. She is second string again here and most likely to confirm the opinion of that first run with a moderate showing. It is worth noting that the winner of the Warwick race - Piece Of My Heart - is entered in the Salisbury fillies' Conditions race on Sunday. Given any reasonable opposition she shuld be opposed in that race.
Other :	American sire More Than Ready has made a name for himself in Britain with a small number of 2yo representatives. The first runner to make his name here was La Chunga in 2005 and he had two more useful 2yos in 2006 with Traffic Guard and Ready For Spring. The last two won on debut and La Chunga was third despite a (now) typical Jeremy Noseda debut (although he said at the time he was gobsmacked that she failed to win FTO because she was better than Salut D'Amour at home). His first two runners this year have both placed on debut for trainers who do not target debut wins. His runner here - Feeling Proud -was bought as a foal in the US and then resold for slightly more as a yearling at the Tattersalls sales in Newmarket. Another strong debut performance is likely given the shape of this race.

May 4th Summary :

An interesting fillies' Maiden at Lingfield on Friday and with an interesting make-up to it. There are two expensive runners in the race for important 2yo trainers (Meehan's Waveline and Mark Wallace's Carolina Belle) along with John Gosden's first 2yo runner of the season with Pixie's Blue. The presence of these three should ensure a good each-way price for both Peter Winkworth's Deal Flipper (covered above) and Jane Chapple-Hyam's Feeling Proud. The second of these trainers only got her licence last year and has only had two debut runners for her (one was second FTO and showed little improvement in rating) so we know little about her approach to debut runners. However, with the sire's record and her own likely preference to make a good start we should expect a good showing at a longer SP.
Mark Wallace has made a typically compact and good start with two STO winners and one place from 4 runners to date. In a typical year since he started in 2003 he has got the natural 2yos going in March and April before a break to more development types during May. These have included expensive types for Sheikh Mohammed's son and the May debuts have been less competitive aside from Firebelly's win back in 2003. His runner here is by the US sire Dixie Union whose 3 British raced 2yos to date have all won (none on debut) including Sander Camillo. Unless she is at least useful a placed debut would seem a typical start.
Brian Meehan typically gets only a handful of debut winners each season and in two periods - with his very best earlier 2yos (usually in May) and then in late season maidens. 2 of his last 17 debut wins have been on this course but the only one this early was with Romantic Liason in 2002 who arrived with a big reputation, got backed to a short price, and needed to engage overdrive to get home because she was a little inexperienced. She went on to win the Queen Mary and that level of ability is pretty typical of what's required for him to get a debut winner. Waveline is his first string runner with Dettori riding so the 'hype' should be feelable even sat in front of the TV if she's that good. More likely is she's ok and we'll get an ok, non winning debut. She's by the sire stravinsky who hasn't made is name with early winners in Britain yet either.
Oh no, John Gosden. Spending a lot of time trying to work out what trainer's are up to, what there strategies are can lead to some becoming 'bogey trainers'. Mr Gosden is no doubt a good and experienced trainer but following his 2yos can be a little infuriating. Lots of duff and average debuts come and go with no particular pattern and then a debut winner pretty much unannounced like it surprised him as well. STO runners flowering to wins out of nothing debuts with no obvious hint that this was likely. But, as with many bogey-men it isn't as bad as it seems and your own mind is making more of the problem than actually exists. In summary :-

He doesn't press his 2yos at home and doesn't look for debut wins. This leads to the variable performance FTO and the better runners can win unexpectedly because of their ability.
Some can show inexperience on debut and put up low ratings and then become those surprise STO winners.
His earliest runners each season are usualy a mix of competitive 2yos with the odd moderate to average (oftne owner bred) thrown in to see if they can find a win.
The debut wins from his early runners are a solid sign of a Listed+ class runner, consider in 2002 Pearl Dance (33/1 in May & his 2nd string!) but Listed placed at Royal Ascot; 2003 Nyramba (12/1 on May 15th) and a later Listed winner; 2004 Prince Charming (April 10th) and a later Listed winner; 2005 To Sender (May 15th) and beaten as favourite for the Coventry and not seen again; & 2006 none prior to Raincoat & Rallying Cry in June-July but again, both horses we are still hearing about as development 3yos and won on debut through plain ability.

So, Pixie's Blue will need to be very high class to win first up as with the Meehan filly. She's a 30,000 guineas buy by Hawk Wing out of a dam that's produced 7f+ 2yos and not a 5f in May pedigree. On profile she should find this race too much FTO and if she does win of go close than like Nyramba in 2003 we can be pretty sure she's Listed quality or better.
In suammry, and interesting race and a set-up which can lead to a surprise winner from a trainer who fully prepares their 2yos for debut. Two solid contenders in that category with Deal Flipper & Feeling Proud to be interested in. The expensive fillies and/or those from the big name trainers likely to be at shorter odds than they ought to be. They would probably need to be high class to win FTO.

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