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Two races on Saturday prior to a better Sunday with what is usually a classy
maiden at Newmarket and a much more variable quality fillies' conditions
race at Salisbury. Let's consider the Thirsk Novice race by first taking
a detour to Ascot & Folkestone. At Ascot on Wednesday the Conditions
race was won by Jamie Osborne's Mount Pleasure with Kevin Ryan's Kersaint
in third place and Battlecruiser for Mark Johnston floundering out-the-back
on debut. All three have runners in the Thirsk race and we can assume that
Group Therapy (Osborne) & New Jersey (Ryan) are less able at this stage
of the season than their runners at Ascot. The question is by how much
and whether New Jersey can beat Group Therapy in receipt of 7lbs.
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Mount Pleasure looked to fit quite well with his 76 class ladder placing
(explained in the Preview of the Ascot race day) as helped by his athletic
movement but lacks the scope to develop. Kersaint looked in the right position
in the lower 70s range and the 4lb weight difference saw them finish within
2 necks of each other. Littlemisssunshine had a provisional Class placing
of 68 and finished just ahead of Kersaint in receipt of weight to suggest
the labels are about right. After an aside we'll return to this question
for the runners at Thirsk.
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If you look at this Picture
of Battlecruiser he was a very likeable type. Probably the biggest frame
in the field, a deep barrel body and short backed enough to believe he
can sprint. In the race he looked out of place and unable to go the pace
and this might have been because of the loose ground which he didn't handle.
He was also probably being taken along faster than he has been before by
a group of solid & precocious 2yos. You would be happy to place him
on the 80+ part of the Class rating but he clearly ran well below that
and therefore what to make of him?
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This type of hapless debut isn't a new occurence for a Johnston debut for
the Maktoums around this time of year. He normally tries to get his better
6f+ 2yos going from earlyish May and normally at York's Dante meeting where
the 6f distance events begin. Before that he will try a few at 5f but with
varying results and a blown debut will not be a certain sign of a poor
one. In 2005 his debut runner at York in May over 6f was Desert Realm who
finished 10th of 11 at 3/1 before dropping back to 5f to place and then
win back at 6f on a stiff track and ran in a Group 3 event without looking
up to that class. Both his runners at the same meeting 2006 finished well
back with Dubai's Touch 6th of 7 at 9/1 and developed to be a Listed winner
later. Both of those showed up near the front before fading but were in
maiden races and not the 'professionals' event that the Ascot race was.
We should be hearing more of Battlecruiser over 6f+ and he ought to be
better than maiden winner class.
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At Folkestone on Thursday the 5 runner race looked a relatively simple
task for Dan Tucket given his solid debut third at Ripon and the cheapness
of the opposition. The five runners came into the pre-parade ring together
and from a distance Dan Tucket certainly wouldn't stand out. It didn't
get better from closer viewing and looking at his Picture you'll see a
small, young, underpowered horse who is also pretty narrow bodied from
end-on. Not a good type and a minor early maiden winner with no scope to
go on (around a 60 on the Class side and perhaps a touch lower).
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When Hobson
came in it was clear this wasn't going to be the easy assignment it looked
on paper. Here was a horse with a bigger frame (he's being led by a very
small man in the photo which slightly overplays things) and much more muscular,
and suited to 5f, than Dan Tucket. He had also been well prepared and was
much fitter although showing a boisterous attitude and needing two
handlers at time. The Johnson-Houghton's get more than the usual number
of these wound-up on debut types without being in the Paul Blockley league.
It was now no surprise to see Hobson challenge for favouritism, getting
3lbs from Dan Tucket, before drifting back to 6/4 and the race went pretty
much as expected. Hobson pulled too hard early but went the pace comfortably
and challenged Dan Tucket right to the line although his early exertions
& lack of experieince coupled with Dan Tucket's professionalism saw
him just beaten. But, as the Channon's stable lad said as he walked away
with his cans of John Smith's as part of the sponsor's prize "A good job
we beat him [Hobson] today because we won't next time".
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All of which is the long way around to get to thinking about New
Jersey, Group Therapy &
Gulf Coast at Thirsk. Dan Tucket
was around 3 lengths behind New Jersey at Ripon at halfway and passed him
in the final furlong as he got through to third racing mid-track. Three
later winners have now come from that race - Cee Bargara was second after
a sluggish break and won comfortably at Pontefract on Wednesday, Dan Tucket
won at Folkestone and the 10th Ingleby Star (supported in the market but
never going after a slow start) won at Musselburgh yesterday. So in headline
terms this is a race 'working out well' to use the cliche. Or is it? Dan
Tucket was pretty uninspiring as a physical specimen and Cee Bargara not
much better on his Folkestone debut. The midfield of that race was made
up of proven moderate types and they weren't that far back. The winner
was a rare Tim Easterby FTO success and they are rarely higher class performances.
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Which all points to a moderate to average race and what was New Jersey
doing fading out of it? He got a provisional rating of 68 at the sales
but with the note that while he had a lot of scope to develop he needed
to to fulfill that potential. We know he's not up to Kersaint's level and
he has a so-so debut effort to come back from. He's not likely to be value
at his price. Group Therapy is the more proven alternative but he still
needs to improve his gatework and he's also likely to be a mid to higher
60s class type and not setting a strong standard. Mark Johnston has a better
record with debuts in Novice races than in the Conditions level that Battlecruiser
ran in but Gulf Coast will need to be Listed winner class or better to
win on debut. He hasn't had a debut rated above 60 so far this year and
only 2 by end May in 2006 which is what will be required to win with his
7lb allowance.
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In summary, a tricky race and not one where a strong profile presents itself.
Although, a lot to learn from the result. To quickly deal with the others
Splitthedifference has
a mid-50s class rating and is unpenalised for his claiming level win at
this track (moved to D Carroll for £8,000). He looked good beating
up on seller class fillies for his win but he should prove short of the
class required here. Pay Parade
ought to be discountable because of the trainer's debut win record but
he won a similar Novice race here in 2004 with a filly who went on to win
the Hilary Needler. The 'market' wont help us know whether this one is
any good and she was bred bythe trainer and races for him so no-one's seen
her yet either. Which helps to muddy the waters. Choisette
looked another competitive 2yo for sire Choisir at the sales and a provisional
rating of 65. Getting of 12lb from Group Therapy she would need to rate
into the higher 50s to win on debut which is not impossible given the trainer's
methods but would be unusual.
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The Goodwood race sees a solid favourite with Spinning
Lucy and not one to oppose lightly. We can trust her trainer's statement
that he thinks she is better than the winner of the Newmarket maiden she
was favourite for but finished third in. That event turned into a 2f sprint
after a moderate pace earlier and made up ground well enough after having
to switch right to find some space. While still not convinced that maiden
was much better than average the fillies that have run from it have all
competed well. The 7th - Affirmatively - won a poor Windsor fillies' race
on Monday comfortably in a slow time; Alexander Nepotism who was fifth
finished second as favourite on hard ground at Bath on Tuesday having travelled
well and clear of the third although beaten by a bigger colt; and the 4th
was Littlemissunshine who placed 2nd in the Ascot race receiving weight.
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The best alternative and the best option for the forecast would be Advertisement.
Clive Cox didn't use to have much of a grasp with 2yos and before 2004
you could pretty much ignore his runners. In the last three seasons his
record has improved notably and the strike rate has been a good 13-15%
in the last three years. Before 2004 he didn't get wins before August and
not FTO successes. He has also tidied that up recently and his early runenrs
will include several places at various SPs and odd wins. He normally starts
with a 'sighter' with a moderate to average quality individual but since
Advertisement cost £52,000 and was bought at the Goffs Breeze-up
sales in March at Kempton we can probably assume he's a bit better type
and quite likely to be ready to go. Dane O'Neill riding him rather than
Hannon's Ballinskelligs Boy seems poisitve too.
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Richard Hannon is 2-38 with Goodwood debuts and a grand total of SP returns
for the two wins of 4. So, he's below his average and when they do win
the 'market' has told the story. His runner here looks unlikely to improve
that record on profile. Mick Channon is 1-19 and very mixed quality. His
Aaim To Storm cost a lot especially
given his ordinary pedigree and by an ordinary US sire. He is into his
typical mode at present with lots of places on debut but only Thunder Bay's
win as his first runner as an FTO success. We should be looking for his
better types at Newmarket and Newbury in mid to late May for a targeted
debut success with a superior type and a win here would be unusual. Enodoc
looked a solid type on his Windsor debut and one to assess for improvement
here to see what level he can win at.
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