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Some brief thoughts on the two main races today. The Salisbury fillies'
race has a history which shows that for the most part it is the highlight
of the year for the winner. In effect, an early season race-off between
some precocious fillies who will be in the 70-84 range of official ratings
by season end and not competing well in better races and nurseries at that.
The exceptions have been when Richard Hannon has a high class filly and
he traditionally uses this race for the best that he has. His last three
winners have included Gilded who went on to success in a sub-standard Queen
Mary and Presto Vento who won the Supersprint at 2yo and a Listed race
at 3yo.
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So, the key to the race is what you think of Cake,
so to speak. She didn't have to achieve much to win a slowly run Lingfield
AW race but on the plus side she did win comfortably (and a debut win is
usually a good sign with the trainer). She also appeared to show something
approaching an ability to quicken when turning a neck lead at halfway into
a 3 length lead rounding into the staight. She did only go away from Hucking
Harmony who doesn't really do left hand bends on the evidence so far but
still a positive. She is by Acclamation
and the evidence so far suggests that although often on the small side
his early runners have shown they have some 5f zip although they are likely
to have limited development potential. He has had three other winners with
smaller types already - Cee Bargara,
Cracking & My
Sheilas Dream (seller) along with a very good debut from Rebel
Aclaim. In what looks an average edition of the race she sets a good
standard without being overpowering.
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Mr Hannon also runs Presto Levanter
who is Presto Vento's first foal and retained for 52,000 guineas at the
sales. She looks the second string on jockeys and a moderate to average
type at the sales despite the price. She looks to be another owner-breeder
filly here looking for a place in a small field to go on her CV similar
to Tamara Moon.
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Baytown Blaze is likely to have been given a thorough preparation by Phil
McEntee (hasn't he been suspended for a year?) but should be short of the
standard needed to win. Which leaves the most interesting alternatives
to Cake as Flying Indian and
Structura. The first should run
well and confirm the upside view of the Newbury race. Trainer Stan Moore
has handled the move up in quality of his string well and showed good ability
in knowing hos good they are before thye run. Partly due to the better
2yos he now has they show up more prominently FTO and he gets the odd early
season win with a debut runner. In that context we should take Structura
seriously as a longer term prospect but she would need to be well above
average to beat Cake & Flying Indian here.
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The Newmarket race appears to have two strong contenders for the win in
Party In The Park and Aidan
O'Brien's Achilles Of Troy.
The firs of those is a big, heavily built 2yo with the size and build to
develop with racing. His debut effort was well above the average for his
trainer and he showed good maturity, unlike Legendary Guest. With normal
improvement he would get a B2yoR estimate above 70 her which would be too
high a standard for the newcomers to reach. Achilles Of Troy was third
on debut in Ireland and his trainer is happy with 'nice introductions'
to develop from. At the sales he was rated above average but not obviously
higher class. Physically different from Party In The Park being a compact,
deep bodied, 5f sprinter type on set up and in the right race here.
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For this race and for the upcoming meetings at York and Newbury later in
May it is worth taking a look at the 2yos he has run in Britian recently
during the month :-
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2003 = Grand Reward (Won, FTO Newbuey, EvF), Show Me The Roses (3rd of
5 at Sandown), Old Deuteronomy (1st) & The Mighty Tiger (3rd) on May
31st at Newmarket.
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2004 = None before Royal Ascot.
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2005 = George Washington (FTO, 3rd in a strong renewal of this race as
13/8 fav), Marcus Adronicus (1st at 5/1 at York), Ivan Denosovich (FTO
& second as odds-on favourite at Newbury), Where's That Tiger (3TO,
4th in new Listed race at Goodwood).
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2006 = Abraham Lincoln (STO, second as odds-on favourite at York)
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A variable record with high class 2yos right through to his best in 2003
and 2005 and little either side of those years. Along with the sales report
and the previous run it all points to a strong profile for Achilles Of
Troy and one that only Party In The Park seems equipped to compete with.
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While not looking up to competeing for the win today the rest of the field
contains a strong group of 2yos who ought to be mainly winners in the season.
American Art was another 70+
rater at the sales and ought to be a good maiden winner at least. As with
Coolmore it seems unlikely that Sheikh Mohammed waster the name Arab
League on an average one and by a sire he must have high hopes for.
Definitely one for the future but we have seen the Mark Johnston 2yos not
really ready to deal with the opposition in a variety of races this last
week and he would need to be Group winner class to succeed today.
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In a strong midfield from solid trainers the trio of Back
Duke, Kinout & Major
Willy all have profiles to be maiden winners and how close they get
tto the first 3 an indication of what standard they are. Even Patsymartin
looked usable at a lower level given the 5,500 sales price tag. In summary,
despite a range of shorter priced prospective better types beaten already
this season (and Spinning Lucy added to that yesterday when beaten by Enodoc)
the front two on profile present a strong case.
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[Some feedback from Goodwood yesterday - in interview after the win by
Enodoc trainer Willie Muir said :
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"Fancied him at Windsor [Where he was noted as the second best physical
type after Red Expresso] but he went a bit too fast and got a 'speed wobble'
on and then got hampered back"
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"I said to the jockey he would win today if he relaxed in the race and
does what he does at home. He runs all over an older horse [garbled but
probably Tallulah Banks] at home."
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"We have thirty 2yos in but only this one plus a couple of fillies are
sharp [as in 5f early] and the others are more 6-7f+ types".
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Enodoc is small but a very balanced and neat geometry and this clearly
helpd him make the most of his size. The notable thing watching the video
is what a very fast action he has for firm ground (i.e. how quickly he
recovers for the next stride). The commentator called it 'scuttling' which
is a unfair. He's clearly a fast ground 5f type on action. He was clear
of Spinning Lucy (less of a 5f type and lightly built in the context of
this group of colts) and she was clear of Advertisment (small, very ready
5f sprinter with little room to develop) and Aaim To Storm. The scond of
these made €205,000 as a yuearling and only a fraction of that as
a foal. On the evidence here the reason is pretty clear, he was one of
the biggest horses on show all day and carries his size very well for a
2yo in May. He was also entirly gormless and didn't have much clue what
was required of him. Given that his fourth here in a 5f race which isn't
really his thing against three professionals (2 who are 'all 5f' set-ups)
wans't a bad effort. He is one to follow as he develops.
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