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The Windsor 5f maiden sees a re-match between Ten
Down and Red Expresso who
were second and third at his course behind Sauze D'Oulx. Both got well
behind in that race for different reasons and closed up in different styles
in the second half of the race. Ten Down had made a very professional debut
in what appeared to be a good Novice race on debut and led at a pace to
break 4 of his 5 opponents until he faded a little late and got overtaken
by Fred's Lad. That race looks less good now with the 3rd-6th failing to
win in later races and Brassini looking a below average physical type when
running here.
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Ten Down was notably small in paddock review for his second outing here
and obviously a very ready 2yo and lacking scope to develop. Jamie Spencer's
inactivity contributed to him getting behind the bunch in that race and
he had to use his effort to circle the field and then couldn't pass the
leader who had run the favoured stands' rail route. He has a high draw
here and will presumably be allowed to front-run or stay close up to make
use of the advantage. Given his lack of potential he ought to be able to
rate aroung 60-63 here and set a good standard. He is the only one of the
5 juveniles his trainer has run so far who has not won and he is on a string
of 5 consecutive victories from April 21st to last weeked.
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Red Expresso was 14/1 to Ten Down's odds-on price in the previous Windsor
race and showed notable inexperience. He was 10 lengths off the leader
at halfway and 4 lengths behind Ten Down. Unlike that other rival he didn't
make his forwards progress from the 2f out point to 1f from home. He showed
a strong finish in the final furlong having switched left away from the
rail as he picked his way through the bunch. At the end he was less than
2 lengths off Ten Down and had made ground on him in the second half of
the race. He is a bigger and better physical type than that rival for the
long term but can he beat him here. He has the problem of a low draw in
stall 2 and needs to be much more professional to ensure he doesn't get
too far behind that rival.
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It's pretty easy to visualise a likely scenario for the race with Ten Down
leading and running the rail route and giving his best performance on the
day. Red Expresso is liable to be clsoing in on him in the final furlong
and the key question is where he starts from. If he is within two lengths
at halfway without having to burst himself to get there he should have
too much stretch for him. Backing against Mr Osborne hasn't got you anywhere
much so far this season but it's probably prefeable to be on the bigger,
late finisher, than the nippy target who has just folded a little in the
last half furlong of both races to date.
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In such a big field you would imagine that would be some strong alternatives
that might shake this pair up. Drawing up a shortlist of 'Possibles for
a surprise debut win' comes to Master
Chef & Ramblin Bob as
vague members and Magical Speedfit clinging on with white knuckles. John
Gosden brings B2yoR out in cold sweats at times with the apparent randomness
of the debut efforts. However, amongst the early debuts there is usually
a pretty good one and it's the best that can win on debut for him. He's
already given us a weedy little-hoper with Pixie's Belle but Master Chef
is presumably more likely to be the real thing.
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Costing 240,000 as a foal and although out of a stout dam makes an early
5f debut which ought to be a good sign. He's owned by Sheikh Mohammed's
young wife and his first four runners for her in 2006 included 3 debut
winners (at Newmarket, Kempton & Lingfield), But, the first runner
for her on May 31st was the limited Massenzio who finished 5th at Yarmouth
in a Novice at 12/1. The three later debut winners were at between 100/30
to 7/1 and only recorded estimates similar to what we should expect from
Ten Down. So, he need to be a real good one and competent with it to beat
the leading pair and a, supported, shorter SP will likely be a positive
sign.
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[Note :- Rain overnight at Windsor which would lessen the rail bias.]
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It's disappointment corner on Failure Street at Kempton with the five horses
with previous outings all running moderately with different levels of expectation
beforehand. Abfabfong was a typically
well prepared for his Windsor debut and close to the fittest in the group.
With the expected favourite for that race not a particularly good type
both he and Michael Bell's Ink Spot were supported and both ran badly.
In fifth at halfway he just faded back with no response and finished with
the garbage. This is a bad sign for a Cole 2yo and only 1 (of 31 in total)
of his horses that finished worse than 6th on debut have won a race later.
He has debuted a number of ok physical types at the track in recent years
that have turned out to be moderate.
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No Nines was backed from 25/1 down
to 9/2 third favourite in a strong maiden at Newbury (although the later
results of runners from it have been mixed so far). He gave a dreadful
performance and after a slow break that lost three lengths he was driven
along and eventually eased. Barry Hills, unlike Paul Cole, does not have
his 2yos wound up for debut and there's more hope he'll come back to show
better form. Mr Hills is 19 from 122 for later winners that finished 7th
or worse FTO. He's just a neat, ready 2yo on set-up but ought to beable
to rate 60+ and that would be enough to win here.
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The early season Folkestone race that Sirjoshua
Reynolds ran in looks an ok standard now but he ran a real clunker.
Like No Nines he looked clueless from the start and driven along and showed
very little response. Even when slightly staying on at the finish he was
overtaken by Shepherd's Warning who has been beaten in two sellers since.
Another ready looking 2yo on set-up in line with his dam's record. Neville
Callaghan's 2yos usually show up well enough FTO if they have ability and
this type of debut from an early runner would usually indicate a moderate
one or one he is planning to bring along for nurseries. Given the early
debut the second plan looks less likely. Another that should improve off
his break but with less circumstantial evidence to suggest he'll be good
enough to win. Brian Meehan's record with daughters of Bertolini for owner
T. Cunningham is going backwards. 2005 saw a chaepish purchase win at Group
1 level with Donna Blini, in 2006 Nina Blini managed an ordinary win and
a place in a poor Queen Mary. 2007 has seen Carolina
Blini and she never looked likely to match any of that even at the
sales. She's run poorly twice and Dettori gave up pushing on her last week
("Hey, Brian. Why you put me on this .......!").
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Replicator is excused his poor
effort because that was what he was capable of. So, No Nines has the best
chance of those to climb back up to a level of acceptability. A set-up
where a good newcomer would have a good chance to upset things. However,
Mark Wallace's Valhillen has seen
his sales price fall from a low level last time and the trainer doesn't
wind them up for debut. Hannon's filly Rescue
Me has more in her profile but doesn't really have a 5f profile. She'd
probably need to be above average to win on debut even against this flawed
group and that doesn't look likely. You would think that she would be at
Windsor with Richad Hughes riding today if she was good (Luscious Lips
is his ride in the maiden there). Which leaves No Nines as the likely winner.
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