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Chester stages two Class 2 events on Wednesday with the 'Lily Agnes' conditions
race and a rare maiden at that level. The second of those races has often
had large fields and/or had two divisions of the race. Despite the status
the maiden is usually of average quality at best and has relied in recent
years on Barry Hills to provide some better quality. Unless one of the
fillies on debut has much more ability than their profile suggests then
Mr Hills seems to have found a the right spot for Dark
Angel and a good draw with it.
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The Lily Agnes has a pretty typical field of precocious 5f 2yos and with
only hints of ability to compete at higher level from the group. We have
already seen with the fillies conditions race at Salisbury over the weekend
how these races can have fairly thin fields and the races are often the
highlight for the runners. Last year's field was typical with the only
later win being from the horse who finished last - Ask Don't Tell - who
managed to wangle a 7f nursery in late season. The following table gives
the 'Class Ladder' for this year's field and the final ratings with the
raceweights taken into account.
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To put this is context a 75 rating would only win a below average Listed
race and wouldn't place in a solid field for a Group race. Rather than
run through the contenders straight off let us think about the Chester
track and how the draw and it's turning style affects the results of race.
The table below is set out in draw order for Wednesday's race and the final
column summarises the 'Run Style' of each runner in it's races to date.
The number in the style is the position the runner was in at halfway and
the letters mean - 'F' = front-running, 'P' = pressing the pace, 'T' =
tracking the pace, 'M' = midfield, 'B' = behind midfield. Remember that
a low draw is closest to the inside rail on this turning course and an
advantage.
| Draw |
|
Previous Run Styles |
| 1 |
Fast Feet |
T34, 1.5 lengths off leader at halfway
T3, 1.5 lengths off leader
|
| 2 |
Vhujon (Non runner) |
F, One length clear after a furlong then a big effort to be 4 lengths clear
at halfway, kept on well on an uphill track until stalling late on.
|
| 3 |
Cracking |
PT2, Aggressive ride to cross in front of field to press leader, faded
soon after halfway
F, got rail and a half length clear at halfway
|
| 4 |
Not My Choice |
TF, 3 lengths behind after a furlong but an effort made to be just leading
at halfway, faded inside final furlong on uphill finish.
|
| 5 |
Sinead Of Aglish |
T3, 1.5 lengths behind at halfway
F, led alone in split field at Ripon
M. latest run at Warwick 2 days before this race.
|
| 6 |
Artdeal |
F, Run hard early to cross in front of field to rail, 1.5 lengths clear
at halfway
F, drawn close to Beverley rail, 0.5 lengths ahead at halfway and an effort
to be 2 clear coming to final furlong before a late fade.
|
| 7 |
Primo Heights |
B8, 7 lengths behind a strong pace after just a furlong and same distance
at halfway. Pacesetters folded and allowed closers to fill the places.
|
| 8 |
Baytown Blaze |
T23, 2 lengths off lead at halfway
F, 1.5 lengths clear at halfway.
|
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In short, there are all the pacemakers and pressers you need to make a
real tear-up. It would be a fair bet that Vhujon, Cracking & Artdeal
will hook-up on the pace in some combination unless Vhujon takes off like
he did at Bath and gets clear. Fast Feet has tracked the pace in both runs
to date on straight tracks but it's quite likely he'll be hustled forward
as well to not lose his draw advantage. Does this matter? Will the best
horse win anyway? Checking back over the 5f juvenile races at the track
gives an interesting insight. The following table gives the 'Run Style'
codes for the first 6 home in a selection of the 5f races.
| Date (Runners) |
Going |
1st 6 Run Styles |
Comments |
| 2004 - Lily Agnes |
Good-Soft |
T4, T5, H, B, P2, P3 |
H is Held Up on purpose |
| 2004 - Class 2 Maiden Div I |
Soft (rain on day) |
T4, F, P3, BM, B, P2 |
|
| 2004 - Class 2 Maiden Div II |
Soft (rain on day) |
M, P2, M, F, BM, T |
|
| 2004 - June |
Good to Firm |
P2F, FP2, P3, B, B, T4 |
|
| 2005 - Lily Agnes |
Good-Soft |
T46, T7, F, T35, P2, P3 |
|
| 2005 - Class 2 Maiden |
Good-Soft |
P2, T9, B, T8, T5, T4 |
Tearaway pace and best horse just held on in front of inferior closers
after pressing pace |
| 2005 - June 7th |
Good to Firm, Firm |
F, T3, P2, MT, BM, T4 |
|
| 2005 - June 25th |
Good, Good to Soft |
T4, T3, F, B, P2, B |
|
| 2005 - July 8th (a) |
Good to Firm |
B, P2, T4, P3, F, B |
|
| 2005 - July 8th (b) |
Good to Firm |
T5, F, T6, B, T7, P4 |
The front runner in second surrounded by closers was a Group class
runner brought to the others level by the pace duel |
| 2005 - July 9th |
Good To Firm |
T4, P3, F, P2, B, T5 |
|
| 2005 - August 18th |
Good To Firm |
T3, F, T2, T6, B8, T7 |
|
| 2006 - Lily Agnes |
Good to Firm |
T4, P2, T3, F, B5, B7 |
|
| 2006 - Class 2 Maiden |
Good to Firm |
T6, M8, P2, F, T3, T4 |
|
| 2006 - June 13th |
Good |
T4, F, T3, B8, M5, P2, M6 |
|
| 2006 - July 1st |
Good to Firm, Firm |
F, T4, P2, T3, B5 |
5 ran, high class horse got rail |
| 2006 - July 14th (a) |
Good to Firm, Firm |
F, T3, P2, B5, M4, B6 |
6 ran, high class horse got rail |
| 2006 - July 14th (b) |
Good to Firm, Firm |
T4, F, B5, T3, T2, B6 |
|
| 2006 - July 15th |
Good to Firm, Firm |
F, T2, T3, B4, B6, B5 |
6 ran, Empty race and winner much the best of a mostly maiden field |
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Some headlines to note - the slower the ground the less likely the pace
is to hold up to be involved in the finish. The draw is a bigger avantage
on firmer going and a relatively uncontested lead (more likely in smaller
and/or more variable quality fields) helps the pacemakers to place. However,
on any going a pace duel can soften up and break all but the really better
quality horses and a T4 position is often ideal. Which means tracking the
pace in fourth, not too close to the pace to have it break you but close
enough to pick up the pieces when the enthusiasts stall. Will the pace
be too quick at Chester and who is likely to be in that stalking fourth?
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