-
An important week in the 2yo season with the start of the 6f races on Tuesday
and normally informative maidens at York, Salisbury and Newbury. Before
that a varied selection on Monday with more depth than quality. The 5f
Novice at Windsor has previously attracted smaller fields but two of the
last three winners have run in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot with Blue
Dakota winning in 2004 and Hoh Mike second last year as favourite to Dutch
Art. Only four runners this year and probably two with no chance.
-
The filly Piece Of My Heart
looked a reasonable early prospect at the sales last year when retained
by her owner breeder Chris Wright (Charisma records, etc). She turned out
early in a Warwick maiden which on paddock inspection before the race looked
pretty ropey. Piece Of My Heart didn't help the overall view having gone
light framed and narrow although still a bigger frame than the small fillies
in the race. She won in a slow time from Mark Johnston's Ramatni who looked
the only runner in the group with some development potential. The subsequent
runners from that race have confirmed the view on the day by not competing
well and only Ramatni has shown reasonable form since (despite drifting
to 8/1).
-
We can play at being trainers for a minute. We've got a win for an owner
breeder's filly who is related to one of his better runners. She could
retire back to his stud now and have a record which would look respectable
in the sales catalogue. So our job is to try to make it look better without
putting her in races which will demonstrate how limited she is. A weak
Listed race in May would seem a good idea. We had one of those last week
and Phil McEntee managed to get the job done with Baytown Blaze placing
second (looking in excellent condition) for an owner breeder who operates
on a much smaller budget. Sticking her in a Novice race against three colts
and having to give them 2lbs while a win wouldn't mean any bold type printing
of her name in Sales catalogues doesn't feel like 'Plan A'. Anyway, unless
she's developed remarkably over the last month she won't win this.
-
George Margarson doesn't have much of a record with 2yos but he gets the
odd winner each year although his judgment can be a little warped. He gets
a bit too enthusiastic about his horses and sees abilities in them they
don't have. In 2004 he was telling everybody that High Chart (debut winner
at Windsor in April) was a Listed filly which she patently wasn't and in
2005 he was telling us that Lenwade had metamorphosed into a precocious
5f filly (which never became obvious in the real world of racing on the
track). But, on the plus side he does seem to sort out which are his competitive
2yos before he runs any of them and the first out each year are the best.
Although 'best' may mean in the longer term because he can start 8f 2yos
and good 3yos at 5-6f and not see them compete well.
-
In 2002 his first runner was the useful Our Teddy; in 2003 he started with
his only 2yo winner of the year - Bertocelli (over 5f in April & won
over 8f in October); in 2004 his first runner was High Chart noted above
and the second was just a placer at 2yo who seems to have done ok at 3yo+
in Young Mick; 2005 first two were Tin And Lint (claimer winner) and Woolfall
Blue (now reaching his full potential at 4yo); and last year he didn't
seem to have much and the first runner was poor but the second was Doubly
Guest and another 8f winner in October that started at 5f in May (at Windsor).
-
He had been typically upbeat about Magical
Speedfit before he ran him at Windsor last week saying he was '..the
fastest 2yo he had in the stable at this stage [of the year]" and hoping
he would be good enough to run in the Norfolk Stakes. On pedigree that
would seem a reasonable 'hope' given that the dam's last foal was Hoh Mike
and his full brother Dario Gee Gee won twice at 2yo and was placed in a
Listed race. With that background he was quite 'cheap' as the sales at
36,000 guineas and if by a better sire and a better specimen as a yearling
would surely have made twice as much or more.
-
He was just about the fittest in the group on his debut and with a strong
build. However, he isn't very neatly put together and appears to lack some
athleticism which probably contributed to his sales price. Despite this
he ran a very good race and was in second the whole way behind a good pace
set by the experienced Ten Down and closed on that rival late on as he
went into his normal fade close to the finish. When a horse you don't expect
to figure runs so well the instinct is often to try to fiddle with the
rating of the race to downplay it. But, it looked worth a 59 and only minor
improvement would see him win here. It's possible he only has minor improvement
given how fit and competent he was on debut and his trainer doesn't have
a good STO record but he sets a standard too stiff for all but the best
class debuts from a Channon or Hannon runner.
-
The newcomers come from those stables and Mick Channon's Carleton
is a typical owner bred from his 'inner circle'. He stands the sire Hunting
Lion (who raced for him as did his sire Piccolo) at his Norman Court
stud and has trained many of the winners he has had since his first season
in 2005. The sire has had four runners in 2007 with three running for Channon
including both winners with Thunder Bay & Splitthedifference (for the
same owner breeder and let go in a claimer). Presumably he's better than
a claimer runner if he's starting in a Novice (trainer 0-5 with debuts
2003-6) but he's likely to be just ordinary and not up to Magical Speedfit's
level first go.
-
Which means the only likely runner to challenge him is Hannon's Cordell
who cost €50,000 at the Deauville sales in France. By a speed sire
in Fasliyev and out of a dam that won at Listed level at 8f in France he
has a pedigree would could produce a better class horse but as with Channon
it would need a top level debut performance from a Hannon 2yo to better
a B2yoR estimate of 60 (which Magical Speedfit should be able to achieve).
We can also take this oppostunity to play trainers some more and consider
Mr Hannons record to date.
-
At the start of the season in the previews it was noted how consistent
a trainer Mr Hannon was in everything he does. We can split his debuts
each year into four clear phases and even see a regular structure within
the phases. We have just reached the end of the first phase which we call
the 'Early 15'. Each year from the start of the season through to the end
of the first week in May he debuts around fifteen 2yos and there is than
a 5-7 day break before he starts the next phase in mid-May which is where
we are now. He has run 14 to May 7th in 2007 and then there was a 5 day
break to Hold That Call's FTO effort at Ascot last Saturday so at that
level he is in his typical mode of operation. To remind you here are the
summary rules for his 'Early 15' :-
-
The earliest of this set will include some of his best 2yos of the season
and often some Group class
-
The very earliest debuts, often 1 of the first three, will include a real
dud who struggles at seller level.
-
The duff to moderate runners in the first 15 often show up by an SP above
the 8/1 to 10/1 range.
-
The 15 will include around 10 who are capable of open maiden wins (the
06 season saw a number of irritating placers with this ability level)
-
There will be 1-2 debuts wins from his best early 2yos (Cav Okay and Sonny
Red later in the period in 2006 for example). In general the stable only
gets debut wins at three set points during the season and this 'Best of
the Earlys' is one of them.
-
The 5-6 horses that make their debut as the 10th+ of the early 15 will
include 2-3 non-winners.
|
2006 Season |
|
|
|
|
2007 Season |
|
| Horse |
FTO Rating |
Final Rating |
Notes |
|
Horse |
FTO Rating |
Notes |
| Gilded |
38 |
81 (+43) |
Lost 5 lengths start debut, 10 lengths adrift halfway |
|
Fat Boy |
58 |
Favourite & Won |
| Miss Crossy |
46 |
52 (+6) |
Claimer winner |
|
Higgys Boy |
26 |
(48 STO), 11/2 debut, 33/1 STO |
| Chip Leader |
10 |
50 (+44) |
Selling class |
|
Avertitop |
36 |
(55 STO), Jockey Easy Debut |
| Resignation |
59 |
83 (+24) |
Useful winner |
|
Little Big Boy |
Withdrawn |
Probably seller class |
| Top Royelle |
58 |
68 (+10) |
Average winner |
|
Cake |
48 |
Favourite & Won |
| Cav Okay |
80 |
86 (+6) |
Debut race over-rated |
|
Cracking |
34 |
Aggressive ride, Fade & Eased |
| Karayel |
51 |
75 (+24) |
Solid dual winner |
|
Quick Sands |
43 |
16/1 with Romany Princess |
| Benchmark |
62 |
62 (0) |
Form deteriorated after STO |
|
Romany Princess |
35 |
14/1 missed break |
| Grand Prix |
58 |
72 (+14) |
Solid dual winner |
|
Party In The Park |
62 |
16/1 & 3rd |
| Crystal Gazer |
62 |
70 (+8) |
Average winner |
|
Talk Of Saafend |
27 |
13/2 & 8th |
| Kyle |
66 |
66 (0) |
Debut race over-rated, injured STO |
|
Ballinskelligs Boy |
33 |
12/1 & 8th, missed break |
| Sonny Red |
68 |
83 (+15) |
Group winner |
|
Presto Levanter |
50 |
10/1 2nd as second string to Cake |
| Baltic Belle |
61 |
68 (+7) |
Debut with Whipchord in over-rated race. |
|
Rescue Me |
44 |
11/2 and won a very poor race |
| Whipchord |
52 |
52 (0) |
|
|
Luscious Lips |
30 |
12/1 & 7th |
-
As a general comment his 'Early' team this year looks less strong than
2006 and the debut ratings down indicating less quality. The first three
debuts included a good one (Fat Boy, although he failed STO at Ascot as
favourite) and a duff one (Higgys Boy and 33/1 STO). The SP story gets
a little hazy in the 8/1 to 14/1 range but the two early debut winners
have been the shortest two SPs and the 11/2 SP of Rescue an indication
of the poor race she managed to win despite being green in attitude. You
could probably count between 8-9 of the 14 to run so far that Mr Hannon
will find a way to win with above claiming level in line with his normal
record. The group includes the usual number of debut wins and of the last
5 debuts only Rescue Me (because she did it on debut) and Presto Levanter
look definite to win at open maiden level. Talk Of Saafend is a poor physical
type and very mentally young as well, Luscious Lips another lighly made
filly (who showed some ability with a mid race move on debut) and Ballinskelligs
Boy look likely to be hard work for him.
-
He ran Karayel in this race last year and that runner had already won a
maiden as had his 2005 runner. This year the only colts to win have been
Fat Boy and Cracking and they have followed the Conditions race route which
means he has to run a debut runner here or a limited type like Avertitop.
Since we are playing at being Mr Hannon we need to weigh into the decision
of who to run here in light of the other races during the week. We want
to run close to our best sprinter (5-6f) that we have ready to start in
the 5f maiden at Salisbury on Thursday. This is his recent record with
debut 2yos in that race :-
-
2002 - Won it at 11/2 with debut runner One Last Time
-
2003 - Ran two in the race with Supersprint winner If Paradise 3rd at 11/1.
-
2004 - Galeota ran 4th at 4/6f, later won at Group 2 level
-
2005 - Ran Orchard Supreme on debut who was 8th at 40/1 but has defied
his cheap sales beginnings as an older horse to be a 95+ rated AW winner.
His Group placer Assertive was odds-on favourite for the race on his second
outing but failed on the fast going.
-
2006 - Listed winner Dazed And Amazed 3rd at 5/1 with eternal placer Dee
Jay Wells unplaced at 33/1
-
Mr Hannon has six entered at Salisbury with Party In The Park & Presto
Levanter having already shown good placed form along with the unraced Elna
Bright, Fifty, Sweepstake & Tiger's Record. So can we assume that Cordell
isn't in the best 5f type bracket? In interview the trainer has said that
Cordell is a big, long striding horse that he expected to start over 6f
and be better for 7f. The Newbury maiden on the Saturday of this week is
where he starts his best early 6f types so why isn't Cordell there. Presumably
he has something better. His record in the Newbury 6f race is :-
-
2002 - Won with newcomer Cap Ferrat at 6/1
-
2003 - 2nd with Farewell Gift with Kings Carnival unplaced.
-
2004 - 2nd with Listed winner Screwdriver
-
2005 - 3rd with useful Golden Acer in one division
-
2006 - Won with Major Cadeaux at 6/1
-
So, we should be looking very closely at what he runs there for the best
of the 6-7f types he has ready to start. He also occasionally run some
of his better 2yos (which are ready to go) at the York meeting and has
run Group winner Kings Point along with useful winners Tacitus & Sonny
Santino there in recent years. Whic is the long way of saying why is Cordell
in this race? Without having seen him on the day it suggests he's not near
the top of the current 5-6f rank and he's starting here because he's ready
to go and he has no problem starting any type of horse over 5f. He's probably
an average maiden winner at least but would need to be somewhat better
to beat Magical Speedfit so long as that one doesn't regress from his debut
level. In summary, an interesting week to look at what Mr Hannon runs in
what races and after just an ordinary start to his season by quality standards
we will hopefully see some real high class ones.
|