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[There will be limited coverage over the next 2 days because of course
commitments at Brighton & York.]
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The first 6f race of the season but it not usually at Newcastle so this
race does not have a previous 'history'. The extra 220 yards of distance
may not seem that much but 6f is a different test to a 5f race for the
horse. With these races we should see better quality horses being brought
out over the next few weeks. This event is a good example of how the different
physical types clash. The two winners in the race - Cee
Bargara (penalised 7lbs) and Dan
Tucket (4lbs) are both smaller end 2yos who have not looked fully suited
to 5f races and have both shown an ability to plug on at the end of races
rather than being pure speed types. Their lack of size and readiness though
will have meant that their trainers would have wanted to get them running
early to try for a win in less competitive races. Which they have both
acheived so 'job done' and the rest of the season to try to find a second
win over 6f+.
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They both look like low 60s raters at best (B2yoR scale) which with their
penalties means that Dan Tucket is just preferred of the two and they set
a standard in the mid 50s for the others to reach. Runswick
Bay's career start has been hauntingly similar to a number of 2yos
for his trainer George Moore. He has only had one 2yo winner from 21 runners
in the last three seasons and that was with a horse he claimes off Alan
Berry in late season. Each year one of his early runners shows up well
FTO and then runs to a similar level in a string of outing without actually
winning (Beamsley Beacon, Coquet Island, Nota Liberata, etc). He got outpaced
over 5f on Beverley's stiff track last time before sticking on so he's
up to 6f on a stiff track here where he has run well. But, we've probably
seen the best of him and he falls short of the two winners standards. Also,
in the longer term it doesn't pay to follow trainers who struggle to turn
promise into wins.
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Which leaves us looking among the newcomers to see whether there is something
that can run to a rating in 50s first up and challenge the winners. Those
two may be small and penalised but they are experienced and very fit so
aren't going to get overpowered that easily by the bigger 2yos just yet.
Realistically there are 4 FTO runners you might look at :-
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Abolition for Mark Johnston -
and Amaerican bred so difficult to read the pedigree. Each year the trainer
sends out a batch of 6f debuts from when they start in May. However the
only debuts wins he has had in recent years have either been in the Ripon
maiden (this coming Sunday) which he usually runs a good one in and has
won it for the last three years. The other FTO wins have then come later
in the month at 'far north' tracks with better types (Helm Bank in 2002
on the 30th, 2004 Leo's Lucky Star on the 27th and 2005 with Crime Scene
on the 25th). His 6f debuts at York in recent seasons have usually failed
badly. So this one will have to be high class to beat the winners.
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Nine Stories - Non runner over
5f here last week. Trainer has had debut winners with his early runners
in the last three seasons and has had two moderate efforts so far. The
SP seems to be little indicator unless there is real hype.
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Dream Express - relatively
expensive runner for Michael Dods. A trainer who has his 2yos ready for
debut and gets wins and places with those that have ability. The earlier
runners usually include the most capable 2yos.
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Tintorero - Mark Wallace usually
selects his early 5f runners carefully and they compete well on debut to
set them up for a STO win. Three of his first four debuts this year have
already managed a STO win. [As an aside another - Valhillen
- got thumped as favourite at Southwell on Monday and looked small against
the rest of the field and a poor mover. He just got beaten on debut in
a slow race at Kempton behind a filly of Richard Hannon's called Rescue
Me. They finished in front of a dreadful bunch of money burning rats with
previous convictions. That Kempton event is one to treat with utmost caution.]
In interview Mr Wallace has said that Tintorero would have been in that
early group but for a slight infection. However, the trainer seems happy
with 'setup' debuts rather than looking for wins.
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In summary, the instinct is often to look at the penalised winners and
assume there must be something better in the newcomers. Both those with
winning form should stay this 6f ok and while limited in the longer term
set a good test for the others in this race. Of the newcomers the most
interesting are probably Dream Express & Nine Stories because their
trainers have their runners that much more prepared than average for debut.
Both Abolition & Tintorero would have to be well above average to win
this off a normal trainer debut.
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Some feedback from the Windsor Novice on Monday evening which was a good
example of Paddock Review working. In yesterday's Preview you may have
picked up on the feeling that how Magical Speedfit looked last week at
Windsor didn't seem to match with his perfoemance. A second look confirmed
that he's a 60s rater of some sort and not the 'Norfolk Stakes' type his
over enthusiastic trainer suggests. He's just medium size and not that
well put together. He is still very 'up behind' (horses long bones grow
at different rates and the back end can be higher than the front until
it levels out - if it does) and this obviously affects the way he moves
which is 'short behind' (See Picture).
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With this in place it was time to look through the others to see if there
was one to beat him. Piece Of My Heart has developed greatly since her
debut and has grown up mentally. Try looking at this Warwick Picture
and compare her Picture
today. But, although a good frame she is stil very narrow and weaker in
front. This will limit her speed and certainly not appealing to beat colts
giving weight.
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What about Cordell?
The long Preview yesterday made the point that if he was in this race rather
than at York, Salisbury or Newbury this week then he probably wasn't a
'better' one. He was the biggest in the group and well built but he has
a slab front and lacks athleticism. He doesn't come across as a speed 5f
sort and not carrying his weight well enough to be that. He ran as expected
in being outpaced and left behind on the ground and you would expect to
see him up to 6f next time and he may well need 7f or more to win.
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Which left Carleton
and he was a very pleasant surprise. Above average size, good body length
with a nice barrel too it. A neat, balanced body shape and an athletic
mover with it. The only fault you could pick with him against the others
was that he was immature. If you compare him to Magical Speedfit without
knowing any of the background of pedigree etc. you would have chosen Carleton
for sure. If you could have known before the race that he would have been
knowing enough to lead he would have been a real strong bet but at 7/1
outsider her was just the wrong price and value anyway. A likeable horse
who would have been one to follow if beaten and still one to be interested
in because he can probably rate 70+ and compete well in Novice/Conditions
events
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