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A big field for the important maiden at Newbury and at least as much potential
as 2006 and possible a little more. Last season's - Result
- shows Coventry Stakes runner-up Major Cadeaux (3yo Group 3 winner) winning
from the Coventry 5th Jo'burg (now a handicapper) with Listed Chesham Stakes
victor Champlain third. The evens favourite Conquest only finished fifth
but was a Group 2 winner as a juvenile who showed some of the peculiar
temperament he still owns as a 3yo (on view at York this week). The ordinary
maiden winner Endiamo was fourth and that is an indication of how well
Marcus Tregoning prepares his 2yos which means they can finish with better
types on debut but progress less well.
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If you look at the B2yoR estimates given for the race last year in the
result page they provide a good basis to assess the quality of this year's
field. The table below summarises the pre-race profile ratings given to
each runner. Remember that the B2yoR method is to prepare a pre-race profile
of what each hoirse is expected to be able to achieve on the day. This
is then used as a template against which to Paddock Review the 2yos at
the course and amend the ratings in light of the review. It is also used
to compare the result from the race to identify horses which have done
better than expected or underperformed.
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Unless one of the field with a previous run makes abnormal improvement
to their second outing the most likely sourse of the winner is a high class
debut outing. The four at the top of the profile fit that model well. Aidan
O'Brien has run a range of 2yos at the major British courses in may since
2002 and they have included some of his best juveniles. He has had two
runners in this race in that period with Grand Reward winning a lower class
edition on debut in 2003 and Ivan Denosovich being beaten as odds-on favourite
in one of the divisions of the race in 2005. Greek Mythology has all the
right credentials and ought to rate 70 or better on the day.
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However, it is worth noting that Mr O'Brien does not highly tune his 2yos
for debut and they are not unbeatable by a good opponent. In Ireland this
is probably well known but we should note that as well as Ivan Denosovich
he has had George Washington, Marcus Andronicus & Brave Tin Soldier
beaten on their British debut outings.
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As noted above Mr Tregoning has his 2yos readier to compete to their full
ability FTO and therefore even if Il Warrd is not the equal of the O'Brien
horse in the long term he can compete with him now. He is an expensive
son of Pivotal (aren't they all given his inflated reputation) for owner
Ahmed Al Maktoum and a half brother to a lot of other expensive yearlings
of which only the filly Coy has managed to win above maiden & handicap
level. The trainer has had runners for the same owner in the last two seasons
with Bla Shak injured & pulled up as favourite in 2005 and Endiamo
4th last year. Il Warrd received a solid rating at the sales and should
provide a good competitor to Greek Mythology.
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Richard Hannon targets this race with the best of the 6-7f 2yos and his
recent record is :-
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2002 - Won with newcomer Cap Ferrat at 6/1
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2003 - 2nd with Farewell Gift (8/1) with Kings Carnival (20/1) & Unprecedented
(50/1) unplaced.
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2004 - 2nd with Listed winner Screwdriver at 66/1
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2005 - 3rd with useful Golden Acer at 9/1 in one division
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2006 - Won with Major Cadeaux at 6/1
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His first string here is Redesignation who is a full brother to three winning
2yos including the older Group 3 winner My Emma. He might need to be in
the Major Cadeaux class to win here and that will be reflected in the betting
with positive vibes and an SP probably around 6/1 or less.
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John Gosden is another trainer who doesn't tend to put average ones, let
alone duff ones into this race. This is his recent record :-
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2003 - 6th with Privy Seal (3rd in the Coventry Stakes) at 8/1
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2004 - 1st at 5/2 with Iceman (won the Coventry)
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2005 - 1st in one division with To Sender at 5/1 (unplaced in the Coventry
as favourite), 7th in the other with Murfreesboro (useful winner including
of the Tattersalls Sales race)
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Iceman was owned by Cheveley Park Stud as is his runner here Revivalism.
The stud will be very keen to see him do well because he is by their first
season sire Where Or When and out of a dam who is a sister to their star
stallion Pivotal. With all that background it is easy to put aside the
fact that noone would bid more than 15,000 guineas for him as a foal and
believe he actually some good. But, he's unlikely to be Iceman standard
and he would probably need to be in this edition.
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Beyond those four newcomers the next on profile are mainly made up of STO
runners who made variously solid efforts on debut although none suggesting
they were 'Coventry Stakes' material. Barry Hills runs two in this category
with American Art ridden by the stable jockey and Huzzah by Jamie Spencer.
Huzzah steps up to 6f after not looking up to 5f pace and looking just
an average type in paddock review. American Art is more interesting and
has a good sales report but showed notable inexperience on debut in a good
Newmarket maiden and got well beaten. He has more scope to improve his
rating here than Huzzah. The trainer has had regular runners in the race
including two moderate types last year and hasn't run a better type in
it since Surbiton was 3rd at 12/1 in 2002 (Listed 7f winner at 2yo).
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Of the others Dubai Dynamo appears to be the Stan Moore first string and
should improve notably from his unexciting debut. Pat Eddery runs Castles
In The Air who is another with a 70+ sales report but his trainer has shown
in the two year since he got his licence that he is happy with 'nice intro'
debuts. So, he is unlikely to get much beyond midfield here although he
should be one of the improvers and later winners hidden away.
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Brian Meehan regularly runs two in the race but is another trainer who
does not get many wins and places FTO. However, at least one of the runners
in recent years has been an average or better one :-
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2003 - Fancy Foxtrot 11th at 20/1 (maiden winner, ran in the Coventry),
Scholarship 3rd at 50/1 (non winner)
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2004 - Perfect Choice 7th at 11/1 (maiden winner), Shaheer 6th at 66/1
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2005 - Johnny The Fish 8th at 16/1 (useful winner of the St Leger sales
race)
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2006 - Tudor Prince 8th at 33/1 (maiden winner and Official Rating of 88),
Danebury Hill a non runner (won at 20/1 on later debut and showed useful
form in better races)
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Given that Dettori rides First Trim he is presumably the better type of
the pair although a 5th-7th placing would still only be the result if he
is just useful. Adam Eterno seems more likely to be the solid handicapper
in the Tudor Prince mould.
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