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Two divisions of the 6f maiden at Ripon whic has previoualy been a successful
venue for Mark Johnston with his 6f debut runners. Since the return of
this race in 2003 he had the fourth in that year with the later Group 3
winner Chester Street and won with useful debut runners in 2004-5 (Hearthstead
Wings & In Full Cry). In 2006 this race was later in the 6f season
and he had already won the first 6f maiden at the course with useful Always
Fruitful before having the filly Fongs Gazelle finish 3rd in the equivalent
race. So far in 2007 over 6f he has had one good debut at Newcastle on
Tuesday and the usual no show at York.
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He has a runner in each division and both have realistic chances of winning
in what do not look strong races unless the newcomers harbour some talent.
In the first it would need Alfredtheordinary
to improve markedly for the step to 6f to set even an average target for
those on their first outing. He was outpaced over 5f on a stiff track last
time and this flatter 6f doesn't seem to promise a great leap forward.
Johnston's Mafioso has a solid,
if unexciting, Darley bred pedigree and quite stout on the dam's side with
her previous foal needing 10f on a stiff track to win at 2yo. The trainer
said in interview at Newbury yesterday that the stable was going well except
for the 2yos and they were failing to place them correctly [in winnable
races]. He ought to win at least one of these divisions.
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The opposition to Mafioso doesn't look that strong with the 'possibles'
being Singer Of Songs &
Prunes
along with a second tier of
Bespoke
Boy, Merchant Navy &
Nickel
Silver. Mark Prescott has won with both his runners so far and has
another filly runs here with Prunes (his two runners to date have been
notably professional and both have led and kept going well.). Prunes has
a good 2yo pedigree although limited in class and if Mafioso is any good
would probably find him too strong. Paul Blockley is a 'Show Or Nothing'
trainer when in normal mode and this time last year introduced a 'special'
when Baby Strange was punted on debut at Bath and ironed out his field.
We should be watching out for something similar and his Singer Of Songs
was relatively expensively purchased for the stable despite an unexciting
pedigree. Merchant Navy is Ed Dunlop's first runner of the season but looked
small and ordinary at the sales and would need to find a weak race here
to win off a normal trainer debut.
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In the second division those with previous runs are poor aside from what
to make of Johnston's Gulf Coast.
He started in a Novice at 11/2 fourth favourite but found some combination
of the speedy opposition and firm ground too much for him and didn't look
comfortable. In this field he has good chances to improve to compete for
the win. Howard Johnson gave us two strong debuts at York this week and
then a duff one at Hamilton on Friday. His Apollo
Shark looked a slow, development galloper for 3yo purposes at the sales
and more likely to be an undistinguished debut. Kevin Ryan's Montiboli
looked just a so-so type as well and is likely to be at too short a price
for his ability.
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Which means that if Gulf Coast doesn't improve much it could be a very
open race requiring a low level performance to win. Tom Tate's debut record
has been highlighted earlier in the week and his first runner ran well
enough (in the second half of the race anyway) to carry on treating his
debut runners with a little respect. His Toto
Skyllachy was a typical short but notably heavily built type that his
sire gets and they are either slow if they can't shift the weight or ok
if they can. Other trainers with runners who do get debut winners are Michael
Dods (Rubirosa) and Mick Easterby
(with the expensive, for him, Lady
Grantley, although his runners after the first batch are often more
development types).
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In summary two interesting races but just with ordinary profiles and not
an obvious better type unless either one of the Johnston pair are (quite
possible) or perhaps Singer Of Songs is a Blockley special.
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NEWBURY SATURDAY
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Life has many disappointments and the 6f maiden at Newbury fits in that
category. Give it the big build up and what can you say? Well, let's think
back to the 'Green Table' ratings in yesterday's preview to get some value
out of thinking how they 'work'. The top four in the profile were newcomers
with various positives in their backgrounds and notably from the 'right'
stables who target the race with the best end of their 6-7f 2yos. They
were spread from 65-74 in the ratings which are high marks for debut runners.
The next two horses on 62 were American Art and Coasting representing the
best prospects of those with previous runs.
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Now, if you believe, or know in B2yoR's case, that the physical ability
to run to those ratings will show in Paddock Review on the day then the
top four should show up as better types and probably be some combination
of mature, fit & athletic with it. None of them stood out and only
identifiable by their numbers and not by their physical presence. At that
point you know that the 65-72 debut ratings aren't realistic and can amend
the Green Table. It means that the Coasting level may well be the best
in the race and tells you that it is an ordinary renewal and may not have
much longer term significance. Equally, despite reservations about Coasting's
size and ability before the day he now seems more reasonably priced at
4/1 which would have been poor value if some of the better profiles had
lived up to their billing in the flesh.
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In the race itself Coasting won with American Art 4th and Greek Mythology
(top rated on Profile) running to around their level and probably 10-12
points below the profile which fitted with his unexciting physical make-up,
lack of sharpness and drifting in the market. The two Tregoning runners
finished 3rd & 6th (a trainer who has his FTO 2yos ready) who were
both small and unprepossesing. The midfield was too close to the placed
horses in a slow time race and it was a below average performance for the
race. Unlike 2006 when you could take away Major Cadeaux, Champlain, Jo'burg
& Conquest as better physical types to follow B2yoR would struggle
to name one from this field. If there's a Coventry horse there it is presumably
Greek Mythology who will improve most from this but, while Coolmore do
well with the neater 2yo, you think they must have something better with
more scope to improve.
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To make the point try looking at these pictures of Hannon's representaive
in 2006 - Major
Cadeaux - and this year with Redesignation.
The first is big, mature, and carries himself well while looking out, and
down, on the world. He wins the race and goes on to place in the Coventry.
The second is smaller frame, mentally young and doesn't carry himself that
well while clinging, head in for much of the time, to his handler. He has
a bit of size to develop but not doesn't look higher class. Major Cadeaux
'wants it' on his debut and Redesignation doesn't even know what it is
that he may, or may not, want.
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By contrast the two other races on Saturday were both won by taking efforts
by debut runners. Declaration Of War had been called a 'bit thick' by his
trainer and might need to learn from the run. He attended the pace easily,
went on with the experienced Silver Guest to go clear and soon realised
what was required in the last half furlong and put his rival away with
some ease. Presuming he improves from that he looks one to take seriously
and if his trainer's Onceuponatime is better (as he has said) then he should
be something to look forward to.
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At Thirsk Prescott's Starlit Sands put up another good debut effort and
should compete well at higher level. Breaking quickly from the stalls she
set a pace on the rails that broke the two market rivals who had previous
runs (Ramatni & Cayman Fox) and then despite hanging left kept going
well enough (assisted by a part tailwind) to respond to the pair of closers
who came from off the pace. The time was solid and the first three were
clear and are probably above average.
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