-
A good start to the week highlighted by what are often an informative pair
of races at Windsor. In 2001 the fillies' maiden was won by Flying Millie
from Group winner Superstar Leo and Listed victress Autumnal while the
Conditions race was won by Whitbarrow who won the Group 3 Molecomb later.
The Norfolk Stakes winners ran in the race in 2003-4 with Russian Valor
beaten in a race affected by torrential rain and Blue Dakota won the next
year. In the last two seasons horses which went on the place in the Norfolk
Stakes have run in the event.
-
The tablebelow gives the Class Ladder for the runners in the Conditions
race along with the ratings with the raceweights applied. The usual caveat
about ratings for runners which have not been reviewed is valid and this
particularly concerns Cake who has not been tested in her two wins. The
newcomers Really Really Wish and Perfect Paula have been left out of the
second list because they are on debut and should not be able to run close
to their final class level.
-
The race should concern the three previous winners and the two colts have
both looked particularly well suited to firmer ground. Group Therapy is
by the first season sire Choisir
who has had only two winners so far (the other was Fat Boy) despite the
'flying start' stuff you hear. B2yoR's abiding memory of Choisir was watching
his short head and neck oscillating with metronomic regularity on the notably
firm ground at Royal Ascot where he won both the major sprints. It is too
early to be categorical about his offspring's going needs but his two winners
have both looked similarly chunky, deep bodied and shorter necked types.
-
Group Therapy seemed to improve markedly for a bit of concrete under his
hooves at Thirsk and broke New Jersey (who went on to win well at York
on easier ground). He gives the inpression of being at his best when allowed
to get into a rhythm and dominate on firm going. If the ground has dried
out sufficiently at Windsor it would be no surprise to see him put up a
taking performance here on route to Ascot. If it comes up on the easier
side of good you could see him being less effective.
-
Enodoc is a smaller stamp but powerful enough within his frame and, in
a different way, looked to really appreciate firmer going at Goodwood.
He has a notably quick and short action and can probably do two strides
to some horses one (and a bit). The commentator at Goodwood said he was
scuttling which captures some of his style but underplays him. On the right
ground he is very effective although you would think he had less class
than Group Therapy because of his lesser size and power. Again, if it came
up easier going he would probably be less effective and would need Group
Therapy to underperform to be able to reel him in with a bit of late scuttling.
-
What to make of Cake? She's one of the few horses who has shown an ability
to quicken this season so far and has not had to get out of third gear
to dust off some moderate to ordinary fillies so far. Mr Hannon usually
brings a higher class colt here with Tizzy May, Soonest, Green Park in
recent seasons providing two wins and a place and Sonny Red a non-runner
last year. Assuming that Fat Boy is not available at present given his
poor run at Ascot he realistically only had Cracking or Cake to come to
this race. Her overall profile leaves her short of the colts but paddock
review may show her to be a better type than Cracking (also by Acclamation)
and that would mean she could compete.
-
In summary hopefully an informative race with a good class performance
from Group Therapy and Cake can show us whether she has the fourth gear
to make her competitive inthe Queen Mary.
-
The profile for the fillies' maiden suggest it is nothing like the 2001
version and seems to be low quality and very open because of that. When
preparing a profile for this sort of race you expect some of them to have
prospective ratings for the day well into the 50s at least. Only four got
above 45 and two of those with question marks. The two with previous runs
come from low quality races and set a very low standard for a newcomer
to better. Shamrock Lady ran
in a Warwick maiden that looked woeful on the day and so it has proved
with not a winner coming from it and she looked right in her element there
with a lot of other small ones. If she wins this then it is probably a
garbage race. Vixens Daughter
made her debut in a claimer for Kevin Ryan and went to Richard Phillips
after finishing third. We can trust Mr Ryan to know what he had and that
shouldn't be good enough to win this even with experience as an aid. Mr
Phillips does seem able to get the best out of claims though as he showed
with Yerevan last year so she may well be of interest further along.
-
So, here's shortlist of four who are of some interest as debut winners
in this type of low level affair - the Hannon pair (Dont Tell Anna &
May Day Queen), Mick Channon's Theebah
and Lady Avenger for James Eustace.
In this type of set-up a debut win for Me Hannon is not uncommon with a
solid type and Don't Tell Anna is a half sister to a useful debut winner
for the stable and is the first string with Hughes riding. She may be poorly
drawn in 1 and if she could swap stalls with May Day Queen you'd think
she should be favourite. Mick Channon gets regular debut places and Theebah
ought to be another here at least and with a good draw should compete for
the win.
-
James Eustace doesn't have a particularly good record overall but you can
rely on him to whizz-them-up for debut. He's had 8 individual winners in
the 4 seasons and 3 have won on debut, another 3 have placed and another
finished fourth. The exception didn't like the Folkstone firm ground FTO
but ran right up to his best STO put onto easier going. So, a 'Show of
Nothing' trainer and we will see pretty much all of what Lady Avenger is
capable of.
-
If you work your way down the others with a benchmark between 45-50 required
to win in the absence of a useful lurker you can convince yourself a range
of other fillies can get involved but the four on the shortlist are most
likely. A real point of interest is the first debut for Luca Cumani of
the year. He isn't that fascinated with 2yo racing but has an average record
and is a reliable trainer who gets wins pretty much when they are expected
to. He tends to start each season with a '2yo type' filly who will often
be capable of a win during the year. But, they are usually short of their
best FTO and this is the recent record :-
-
2002 - May 31st, Favola (nursery winner) 5th at 8/1 over 5.7f
-
2003 - June 11th, Sahara Storm (placer) 3rd at 7/1 over 6f
-
2004 - June 7th, Flamand (only run) 5th 9/2 over 6f
-
2006 - June 1st, Market Day (three race winner) 6th at 10/1 over 6f.
-
Given the early start for Siren Party
you would think that she should win in due course. The interesting point
is that as well as being early he has only had one debut over 5f in the
last 5 years so perhaps she's a lurker.
-
The Musselburgh Auction race looks a good opportunity for Guertino
to get his win having battled well against Taurian last time. On his debut
he was undone by assisting with a strong pace at the same course and if
he settles properly again as he did at Hamilton should show a strong finish.
If you read the formbook closely enough you can convince yourself that
Secret Asset has already finished
as close to Taurian as Guertino but that literal reading would be misleading.
Taurian got into several scrapes before finishing the race climbing over
the back of horses in 5th and would have cleared off from Secret Asset
with an unhindered path.
-
La Guancha's debut third looks
better now given the fine run by Tia Mia at York (looking a right little
'tiger' doing it) and given the cheap price she made should run well with
the weight she receives. But she probably has litle scope to improve from
what we have seen. Mark Johnston's 2yos haven't got into form yet and Gin
Genereux was one of five horses that got into a ridiculous pace battle
at Hamilton which saw the quintet fill out the last five places and the
first four made up of runners that were 3-7 lengths of the battle at halfway
and being driven along (well done everbody...). He only did fourth best
of the pacemakers athough which means while he should improve notably if
he settles he has a lot to prove.
-
Bath runs a 5f Novice which has a real 'everything reduced' feel about
it with lots of small runners that cost buttons at the sales (for the most
part) and all early types. Although Sauze
D'Oulx is most penalised he has competed so well against better opposition
that he has a good chance of scraping home anyway. Fox's Den looked very
fit and ready on debut when he beat him and has to explain the long absence
away. Little Pete was a good
winer of a moderate race last time and is probably the better opponent.
Replicator comes from what looks
to have been a bad race at Kempton and needs to improve markedly to figure.
Nestor Protector may only
have won a seller but he looked out of place (in a positive sense) and
his connections had to go to 12,500 guineas to keep him (more than the
horses mentioned so far as yearlings) and he makes more appeal.
-
What about Waveline? you say. Here's
a filly that cost €140,000 that finished a 'pleasing' third on debut
with Dettori on for a major trainer surely she's the one? Well she'll probably
be favourite but she achieved little in a slow race FTO and looked light
and lacking scope to develop. Frankie has been swapped for a 7lb apprentice
which looks a little odd. In short, one to take on at the likely odds with
the cheap, but competitive early colts.
-
Of general interest is the first runner of the year for Roger Charlton.
He is another, like Mr Cumani, who doesn't really press his 2yos and is
targeting wins on their second runs and gets a higher strike rate than
that trainer. He does though choose the earlier runners carefully and it
usually includes the majority (sometimes all) of the winners during the
season. They will be of varying ability but he has a good record of finding
the right race for them. He has only had five debuts in Novice races int
he last three seasons with two wins for high class horses. In general his
debut wins come with his better types for major owners and tend to be at
the shorter end of his SP range (say 5/1 or less and some odds-on). This
fits with his general record of being a trainer who knows the quality of
his 2yos before they run and targets their careers well.
-
His runner here - Midnight Fling
- seems more likely to be the ordinary type who'll drop to a suitable race
STO but worth checking for positive vibes in the betting market.
|