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An interesting maiden at Leicester but a difficult one to read without
having seen the horses in the preliminaries. The range of notes in the
Checkout section above indicate that there are a number of possibles for
strong debuts. Brassini sets an average standard for a newcomer to beat
and may not have much improvement left. But with a stands' rail draw and
experience he will be a reliable yeardstick.
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Of the others with form Orpen's Art was the second poor debut for Neville
Callaghan for the Green's this year. He ran in the important Newmarket
maiden at the Craven meeting ridden by Jamie Spencer and supported from
12/1 to 13/2 but ran like he had no clue at all. The other runner (Sirjoshua
Reynolds) has run poorly twice since including being ridden by a 7lb apprentice
as this one is. Unless they are being brought along quietly for their nursery
careers his debuts are normally a good indicator of overall ability. So
one to watch for progress because he must be better than he showed at Newmarket.
A small word also for Amwell House who made an early debut and looked too
immature to sompete and so it proved. But, he was a reasonable physical
type with some size and one to look for signs of usable ability here.
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Which means that unless you side with Brassini it is a choice between the
best of the newcomers which is summarised above. The value will have been
squeezed out of Western Art's price presumably by his trainer's perfect
start and his draw in 12 is a negative so he may well not be value. Hatta
Fort is well drawn in 2 but would probably need to be an above average
type to win. Mazzanti is also poorly drawn so perhaps another look at Dome
Rock in the paddock for each-way potential.
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Windsor Monday
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Some points to note about yeaterday's races at Windsor. The field for the
fillies' maiden was as expected with mostly limited types and little to
note for the future. Lady
Avenger won comfortably from a poor draw but was well prepared for
the day and with probably minor improvement. The fact that the well drawn
Shamrock Lady was second confirms the low level of the form behind the
winner and she is a 50ish rater (say mid 60s in Official Ratings). The
two biggest fillies finished 3rd and 4th with May
Day Queen the better of the Hannon pair in terms of size and build
although not a real 5f type but should progress to rate 70+ (Official scale).
Shabnaam
looks a worrier and was jig-jogging throughout and one of the few to sweat
on a damp and cold evening. She's tall but notably narrow and lightly built
and needs to keep her temperament in order. Not one to preogress much with
racing and probably not much above claimer level. The rest of the field
looked to contain minor winners at best.
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Which makes the result of the Conditions race a little bit of a puzzle
because they only ran 0.22 seconds faster than Lady Avenger did. They may
have started slowly but the moderate fillies in the first race weren't
flat out throughout either and shouldn't be able to set as good a pace
anyway. In the preview it was noted that Group Therapy and Enodoc would
be at the best on firm ground and the time for the race (62.12) was more
of a soft ground number. In the same race last year Hoh Mike did 61.39s
on 'Good to soft' looking much less impressive than when covering the same
course in 58.75s seven days earlier on 'Good to Firm'.
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So, a race to treat with a bit of caution and none of the principles enhanced
their reputations and Ascot prospects. Eileen's
Violet was unsold for €2,500 but has grown to be a good frame
although narrow and lacking build (not as this as Shabnaam though). She
is also notably mature and you she looks to have a strong willed attitude
- you wouldn't want to get into an argument with her unless it mattered.
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