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Two solid maidens today with some hints of better runners. At Lingfield
the well drawn Eager Diva steps
up to 6f having been outpaced over a fast 5f on debut and then worn out
by a pace duel with two very minor talents at Newmarket. The second race
wasn't run in a good time which is a worry because she perhaps ought to
have kept going better. On the positive side she was passed by some solid
early fillies who have competed well enough since. She also was a good
size although slightly narrow and lacking build and the step up in distance
fits with this.
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The newcomers look a strong group but will need to be ready on debut and
a little above average to beat the standard Eager Diva should set. We are
at the usual time of year for Jeremy Noseda to debut his best speed fillies.
In 2005 La Chunga started on May 31st (4th over 5f at 2/1) and last year
Sander Camillo on May 26th (4th over 6f at 2/1). He has Baffled
with Dettori making the effort to ride. She has all the right profile -
price, sire, etc - to be higher class and has been in the US until April
which means if she is running now she has taken the move well enough. But
Mr Noseda has only had one debut winner in May in the last 4 years and
doesn't prime them like he used to. The defeats for the two high class
fillies in the last two years were both partly caused by getting behind
through inexperience.
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Mark Prescott had a thoroughly forgettable 2006 with his 2yos but seems
to have a more precocious group in 2007 and the will to use them early.
His three debut runners so far have all led at some point and gone through
halfway either first of pressing in second. His China
Pink is another expensive runner for first season sire Oasis Dream
who has had a debut winner (for this trainer). However, the dam's side
is much more stout and suggests a fast 6f may be on the short side. Assuming
another forward pressing ride from Seb Sanders if she is good we should
know quite quickly once the stalls open whether she's here for a development
run.
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Harry Dunlop has only had two juveniles run in the turf season since he
started last year with both winning including Festoso on debut last week.
His Cosenza is another who doesn't
have a real 6f pedigree being by Linamix (2 x 6f wins since 2003 and none
before August) out of a dam who didn't race at 2yo and improved through
her 3yo career up to 10f. With that record she seems more likely to be
a development debut than another win. John Gosden really only gets FTO
wins with his best 2yos this early and Bastakiya
would need to be high class to win but has the positive of being by Dubai
Destination who has three debut wins already in his first year. Similar
comments apply to Hannon's first timer and preferred with Tell
Me What.
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The Ayr race looks a decent opportunity for Fitzroy Crossing who steps
up to 6f on soft having found others more suited to 5f in his two races.
His second at Ascot was in a moderately run race and probably not that
strong a piece of form. Which means he's not unbeatable. Of the alternatives
Bere Davis is covered above and Nine Stories got outpaced over 6f on debut
on a stiff track before plugging on slowly late on. He gives the impression
the soft ground would have to bring the others down to his pace. The most
interesting alternative is perhaps Ink
Spot who has been presumably been sent here for the soft ground and
up to 6f. He was supported to favourite on debut on good-to-firm but didn't
pick up properly after the break and was driven along. He was eased after
being 12 lengths adrift at halfway. The trainer hasn't got his 2yos in
strong form yet but he ought to improve notably for the easier ground.
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Leicester Tuesday
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While trying to avoid after-timing some thoughts about yesterday's race
at Leicester and the 50/1 win for Only
In Jest.
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Bill Turner hadn't had an early winner and his 2yos looked notably behind
schedule in early season. Not as fit as expected and given he trains in
the far south they still had winter coats when the majority had lost them.
He had his first winner of the year 2 days before with Amazing Day who
has improved inthe last two runs.
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Only In Jest looked terrific in condition yesterday - Picture
- and raring to be let at them with it. She had clearly come to her peak
and looked at least an average type in a small set of horses. With experience
and receiving 10lbs (with the apprentice allowance on a simple straight
track) from the colts she was clearly going to take some catching. [For
example, if you thought she could run to 68 yesterday (Official Rating)
which is only a little above selling class and having seen her you would
have, then the colts are going to have to run to 78 + on debut to beat
her. Which is a very good debut. At which point 5/4 and 50/1 are just the
wrong prices and an each saver on Only In Jest not even clever, just sensible.]
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The general point to note is that Bill Turner's runners are now in form.
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Ok, so explain what happened at Wolverhampton last time? She got involved
in a ridiculously strong pace duel with two others that had the field stretched
out all over the course at halfway. The winner came from being driven along
in a distant midfield and the third from 13 lengths back. The really interesting
point is that she had the rail and did worse int he race thatn the two
fillies she duelled with. The bigger Crying
Aloud was hung 4 wide most of the way and still got by Only In Jest
as did Lake Sabina. Those two
fillies are presumably better than their finishing positions showed at
Wolverhampton.
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Western Art
was notably small even in a small set of horses. He's compact, deep bodied
and very strong but his size seemed an issue and certainly made the SP
looked thin. The best type was Hatta
Fort but he was wound up in the preliminaries and not likely to concentrate
properly in the race. Dome
Rock is still a real good mover but he'll need to be because he hasn't
grown an inch since the yearling sales. Amwell
House is still a complete nuisance and hadn't grown up at all since
Folkestone but was probably the biggest on show and well enough put together.
One of those 'over the cliff with him' projects but he ought to get better
and hopefully win at a good price somewhere late in the season.
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